WR - NO
I have seen Olave ranked everywhere from in people's top-seven to outside their top 20. Regardless of where people rank him, one thing is clear, people expect him to take a step forward. In his rookie season, a common thought is that Olave was limited by Andy Dalton and his 66% catchable targets. Although it appeared to be true, Derek Carr's top option Davante Adams last season had only 60% catchable targets. The biggest difference will be that hopefully the volume increases and Olave as a player can take a step forward. However, these are two big asks for me, so I have him as a mid-WR-two and I am excited to see what he can do.
Chris Olave ended his strong rookie season 8th in total air yards (1,531) while commanding a 25% target share and 10th-ranked air yards share (38%). He was the WR26 in points per game (11.0), 6th in yards per route run (2.42) and 8th in target rate per route run (28%). One of the most efficient seasons we have ever seen from a rookie WR. His downfield skill set and per-route efficiency will gel extremely well with his new quarterback, Derek Carr, in 2023.
Olave is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs.
Was WR25 in fantasy as a rookie, and like former college teammate Garrett Wilson, hard not to be optimistic about the QB upgrade for Year 2
Chris Olave had a magnificent rookie season as a target vacuuming wide receiver with alpha potential. Olave finished as the WR25 in fantasy points per game, which doesn't do any justice to his sparkling efficiency metrics. Olave was 15th in target share (26.7%), third in air yard share (40.8%), and tenth in target per route run rate (29.3%). He was seventh in open rate (ESPN analytics), immediately behind Stefon Diggs, and tenth in yards per route run. With Michael Thomas back, Olave will fight Thomas tooth and nail for the WR1 role in this offense. If he can improve on his 11 red zone targets (40th) and four total touchdowns (37th), he could easily finish as a WR1 in 2023.
Olave had 67 receptions for 982 yards and 3 TDs, despite playing with Andy Dalton for the majority of the season. Olave is on the cusp of being an elite WR1 with the addition of Derek Carr to the offense.
3/7: Should only benefit from Carr, even though he's more of a check-down guy he can sling it. Better than Dalton at least!
Will be 23 during the '23 season. Had 72 receptions on 119 targets for 1,042 receiving yards in his rookie campaign. Among rookie WRs with at least 50 targets since 2011, Chris Olave just posted the fifth best yards per route run number.
Good rebuilding target; I suspect New Orleans will not target a QB in free agency and will not trade up in the draft. They will be in tank-mode and Olave will not have the
consistent quarterback play needed for a contender.