David Montgomery

Montgomery hasn't been efficient on the ground, but it hasn't mattered much for fantasy. He's providing a safe floor every single week with his work in the receiving game and he's been around the end zone regularly. Last week, Montgomery was marked down inches away from the end zone. If that would have counted, Montgomery would've been a top-6 RB on the week. It's another tough matchup here for the Bears OL, but Montgomery's simply too safe to not start every single week as a high-end RB2 now.

We know the Bears haven't been able to throw the ball, so they've been able to run the ball, right? Well, no. The 3.9 yards per carry they've averaged as a team ranks as the eighth-lowest mark in the league. With that being said, Montgomery's role has been massive with Tarik Cohen out, as his weighted opportunity is up there with guys like Joe Mixon and Mike Davis. Still, his fantasy finishes have been: 38, 8, 41, 25, 13, 14. We've had four top-25 finishes in the last five games, so he's certainly in the RB2 territory. The Rams rank as the ninth-worst run defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. They've allowed a pedestrian 4.34 yards per carry, but have allowed 6.10 yards per target to running backs, which when combined with the 8.3 targets per game they've allowed to running backs, you have quite a bit of fantasy points. The 73.5 PPR points they've allowed through the air to running backs ranks as the 10th-highest mark in the league. This is important because Montgomery has received 19 targets in the three games without Cohen, and it's honestly where most of his value comes from. There have been seven running backs who've finished as the RB28 or better against the Rams, so Montgomery should come with a stable low-end RB2 floor, though we know he lacks upside.

The Rams are just 13th against fantasy running backs, Montgomery is a boom / bust RB2 in a very tough matchup.