Jake Ferguson

Last year, Jake Ferguson managed his second TE10 finish in fantasy points per game among tight ends in the last three years. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Ferguson was 16th in target share (16%), 20th in receiving yards per game (35.3), 43rd in yards per route run (1.26), 18th in first-read share (17.6%), and 38th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). What fueled his season was red zone targets (second among tight ends behind only Trey McBride) and touchdowns (tied for third-best). Ferguson isn't likely to continue with that high-end touchdown production. If that slips, he's a mid-range TE2. I'm avoiding him in most drafts.

Jake Ferguson is a competent pass catcher in a prolific offense, but the presence of two star receivers in Dallas could limit Ferguson's fantasy upside. Ferguson had 82 catches for 600 yards and eight touchdowns in 2025. The reception and TD totals were career highs, but Ferguson averaged just 7.3 yards per catch, a career low. He finished TE8 in half point fantasy scoring but was TE13 in fantasy points per game among TEs who played at least five games. The Cowboys have an explosive passing attack, but WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are QB Dak Prescott's principal targets. The Lamb-Pickens duo combined for 250 targets and 168 receptions last season. Ferguson's 2026 production could be limited as long as Lamb and Pickens are both healthy, so it's best to consider Ferguson a high-end TE2 in this year's drafts.

Jake Ferguson averaged just 7.3 PPG when George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb were both healthy (> 50% snap share) in the lineup during the 2025 season (11 games). Five games without Lamb playing at least 50% of the snaps -> 13.5 PPG. Still, the overall production and career-high 8 TDs resulted in TE13 finishing in half-PPR scoring (per game). Top-5 in cumulative scoring in full PPR formats. With George Pickens returning to Dallas....Ferguson is facing a major uphill battle to rise above TD-or-bust TE territory. He's being overvalued as a fringe TE1 based on his teammate's missing games in 2025.