QB - JAC
It's going to be extremely tempting to pull the trigger on Lawrence in your redraft leagues later on, but we simply don't know how he's going to translate to the NFL level right away. He has the mobility and rushing upside to do great things down the road, but he shouldn't be someone that you draft with confidence and roll out there Week 1. You can draft him as a second QB if you're someone who likes deploying that strategy or keep an eye on him on your waiver wire. Unfortunately, we might see his ADP creep up by the time drafts roll around where he's going ahead of more surefire options at the QB position. In that situation, I'll lean back on experience and draft someone else who I've seen produce in the NFL previously. Lawrence has the potential to be a low-end QB1 for fantasy...it just might not happen right away.
While it's typically tough for a rookie quarterback to make it into top-12 territory, Lawrence is likely the exception to the rule. He comes in as an advanced passer who has tremendous touch on his passes that not many rookies do. The Jaguars defense is in clear rebuild mode, which should allow for plenty of pass attempts, making 4,000-plus passing yards likely. On top of that, Lawrence has great mobility and is likely to rush for 400-plus yards and a handful of touchdowns on the ground. That alone should get him into the top-15, with a good chance at top-12.
Trevor's value all depends on what Urban Meyer does with Tim Tebow. If he uses Tebow instead of Lawrence down inside the five, Trevor's value takes a major hit. (And he could because Lawrence had some shoulder surgery in the offseason. Jacksonville is being extra careful with their prized draft pick in OTA's.) If not, Trevor could surprise a lot of fantasy folks. He's mobile & gets valuable rushing pts. He's one of the more heralded QB prospects to come out since Andrew Luck. Lawrence reminds me of a long haired, taller version of Roger Staubach. Ringo's advice- monitor the Tebow situation in preseason closely.
Generational talent. There is no "comp" for Trevor Lawrence. He's the best QB prodigy since Peyton Manning, but far more athletic. He has arm strength, speed, awareness. The total package. He's stepping into a team with a fair amount to work with on day one, and he will be the starter in Week 1. Urban Meyer has had success everywhere, but the NFL is a different animal. How the whole thing comes together will be fascinating to watch. However, Trevor Lawrence is worth a top 3 dynasty pick in any format and has the upside to finish as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 in redraft leagues. The term "can't miss" can be overused, but, it's appropriate when describing Trevor Lawrence.
Think Tebow ends up being a bigger thorn at the GL than any of us are anticipating
The wonder kid may be coming into the NFL as a "can't miss," but he is still a rookie, playing for a rookie NFL head coach on a franchise that has seen little success. Although his talent is undeniable, going into the season with Sunshine as your QB1 is a recipe for streaming.
Lawrence is a generational talent that should immediately be in the QB2 discussion as a rookie with QB1 upside.
I think Lawrence ends up as the QB1 in dynasty by the end of this season.
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