Tim McCullough serves up up start/sit advice for Wednesday and Thursday’s games.
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So, as the Bench Coach, I get to take all the abuse when Fantasy team managers lose. For instance, one avid reader recently wrote, “How can you recommend players based on 12 at bats? I’ve been reading Bench Coach since it first started running and using your recommendations to make my lineups. Not only has my team been losing, but I’ve sunk three places in the standings.”
Naturally, I had to reply because every single Bench Coach has a reminder (disclaimer!) that these are small samples we’re looking at, and they should be used in conjunction with other data to make lineup decisions. I explained this in my reply to the reader and told him that he needs to look up a hitter’s splits and recent track record at the very least, before checking the Bench Coach numbers and making a decision. His next missive, which I won’t share here, blamed me directly for not including that data here.
This led me to consider whether the pitcher vs. batter data was worth including at all. After all, it doesn’t offer any context for making a sound decision about the hitter versus a particular hitter. For example, last week I listed Raul Ibanez in a matchup against CC Sabathia. Ibanez had a batting average against of .311 along with three home runs. That sounds like a great matchup if you happen to own Ibanez. Right? Wrong! Ibanez did most of that damage back during his first tour with the Mariners. Recently, he hasn’t been able to hit Sabathia much, though he did hit a home run against him last week. Over the past three years he had only faced him twice, going 2 for 6.
The point here is that publishing these head to head batting averages is probably not very helpful. A sample of 10 at bats without any context to judge them against is a disservice. So, in a way I agree with the reader who complained. Therefore, I am tweaking the content of Bench Coach to feature some other information. Beginning next week, Bench Coach will have a totally different look.
WEDNESDAY’S PITCHING RECOMMENDATIONS
START ‘EM
Mike Leake (Reds) vs. Cubs
Leake is still sharp and the Cubs are, um, not.
Paul Maholm (Braves) @ Padres
Road ERA is 4.72, but Petco cures lots of ills.
Justin Verlander (Tigers) @ Royals
Come on, it’s Verlander.
James Shields (Royals) vs. Tigers
Shields has been sharp, but not getting run support (3.48 r/g).
Francisco Liriano (Pirates) vs. Giants
Only the Marlins have fewer HRs than the Giants in the NL.
Nick Tepesch (Rangers) vs. Indians
Tepesch has a 2.67 home ERA.
Shelby Miller (Cardinals) @ Mets
If Miller keeps this up, he is in the Cy Young discussion.
Chris Sale (White Sox) @ Blue Jays
Ace vs. hapless Jays.
Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies) vs. Nationals
Worth a gamble.
Phil Hughes (Yankees) @ A’s
Hughes has been tough lately
Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) @ Dodgers
9-0, you bet you should start him.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers) vs. Diamondbacks
He has a 1.50 ERA at home.
Tyler Cloyd (Phillies) @ Twins
Cloyd has been a pleasant surprise.
SIT ‘EM
Travis Wood (Cubs) vs. Reds
Reds are third in NL in runs per game (4.61)
Jerome Williams (Angels) @ Orioles
Hasn’t lost on the road, but can’t bring myself to trust him.
Edinson Volquez (Padres) vs. Braves
He’s just as bad at home as on the road.
Barry Zito (Giants) @ Pirates
Road ERA is 10.19. Wow, that’s awful!
Alfredo Aceves (Red Sox) @ Rays
He’s nuts, and you would be too if you started him.
Chris Archer (Rays) vs. Red Sox
Never trust a rookie against a hot-hitting team.
Kevin Slowey (Marlins) vs. Brewers
Slowey better on the road than at home.
Dan Straily (A’s) vs. Yankees
Straily has been inconsistent this year.
Jason Hammel (Orioles) vs. Angels
Hammel has struggled at home this season.
Ubaldo Jimenez (Indians) @ Rangers
HR city meets HR machine.
Dillon Gee (Mets) vs. Cardinals
Cards lead NL in runs per game (5.03)
Esmil Rogers (Blue Jays) vs. White Sox
Only Seattle scores fewer runs than Chi, but Rogers is not good.
Ross Ohlendorf (Nationals) @ Colorado
ERA in 2012:7.77, in 2011: 8.15, need I say more?
Jordan Lyles (Astros) @ Mariners
Nope, not even against the lowly Mariners.
Jeremy Bonderman (Mariners) vs. Astros
Nope, not even against the lowly Astros.
Mike Pelfrey (Twins) vs. Phillies
Nobody surprised that Pelfrey has been bad.
THURSDAY’S PITCHING RECOMMENDATIONS
START ‘EM
Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) @ Mets
He’s a must-start every time out.
Matt Harvey (Mets) vs. Cardinals
Same here.
Hiroki Kuroda (Yankees) @ A’s
Road ERA (3.59) much higher than home (1.96) but sharp lately.
Mat Latos (Reds) @ Cubs
Only two bad outings all season.
Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) vs. Reds
Been solid vs. Reds this season.
Ross Detwiler (Nationals) @ Rockies
48% GB rate safe enough for Coors Field.
Ervin Santana (Royals) @ Rays
HRs killed him in May. Rays not homering lately.
Matt Cain (Giants) @ Pirates
Cain showing signs of recovery.
A.J. Burnett (Pirates) vs. Giants
2.73 ERA at home.
Yu Darvish (Rangers) vs. Blue Jays
Must-start every time out. Top 3 pitcher now.
Cliff Lee (Phillies) @ Twins
Another must-start pitcher.
SIT ‘EM
Jarrod Parker (A’s) vs. Yankees
5.40 ERA at home.
Felix Doubront (Red Sox) @ Orioles
Doubront couldn’t find home plate with binoculars.
Kevin Gausman (Orioles) vs. Red Sox
Never trust a rookie against a hot hitting team.
Jeremy Hellickson (Rays) vs. Royals
Hellickson has not been very good this year, even at home.
Mark Buehrle (Blue Jays) @ Rangers
6.75 ERA on the road.
Kevin Correia (Twins) vs. Phillies
Maybe earlier this season. Not any more.
Jeff Francis (Rockies) vs. Nationals
6.91 ERA at home.
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