Robinson Cano and the Mariners will continue to build on last season’s momentum
Following the 2013 season, the Seattle Mariners shocked the baseball world when they signed free agent second baseman Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract. The Mariners were coming off of a 71-91 record in 2013 while allowing many of their young prospects to develop at the big league level. With so many unknowns on the roster heading into the 2014 season, it was anyone’s guess as to how this team would finish. It turns out the 2014 Seattle Mariners were quite a bit better as they finished with a 87-75 record and were in contention for playoffs until the final day of the regular season.
As the baseball offseason approached, many Mariners fans wondered what the future would hold. In recent years, they had witnessed this team fail to spend enough to surround a super-star (Ichiro Suzuki in his prime) with supporting talent, while trading away young players for overrated veterans. However, many of those concerns were put to rest when new Mariners Club President Kevin Mather told local reporters that payroll would increase from the $107 million dollar figure the club ended the 2014 season with. In December, Mather also stressed that they weren’t selling the future for the present, when he was quoted saying, “We aren’t going to sell our souls for this year. We want 95-97 wins for the next four or five years.”
True to their word, the Seattle Mariners front office has so far added an impact player (and payroll), while also keeping the farm system almost completely intact. The Mariners appear to be a team ready to contend in 2015. The new guys, the key players, and the prospects that could help end the decade long postseason drought are detailed below.
Projected 2015 Lineup:
- CF – Austin Jackson
- 3B – Kyle Seager
- 2B – Robinson Cano
- DH – Nelson Cruz
- 1B – Logan Morrison
- C – Mike Zunino
- LF – Dustin Ackley
- RF – Justin Ruggiano/Seth Smith
- SS – Brad Miller
Projected 2015 Rotation:
- Felix Hernandez (R)
- Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
- James Paxton (L)
- Taijuan Walker (R)
- J.A. Happ (R)
The Seattle Mariners began the 2014 season with a left-handed heavy lineup. On any given day the lineup would consist of seven or eight left-handed hitters as the team lacked in quality right-handed bats. The trade deadline deal that brought in Austin Jackson helped to balance out the top-half of the batting order. As the 2014 offseason progressed, the Mariners continued to address this imbalance with the signing of free-agent OF/DH Nelson Cruz, as well as trading for OF Justin Ruggiano.
The New Guys
Nelson Cruz
The big addition for the Seattle Mariners, Cruz adds a much needed right-handed bat to the middle of a promising Mariner lineup. While Cruz has the power to hit the ball out of any ballpark, the marine layer common to Safeco Field and other west coast stadiums will likely rob at least a handful of home runs from Cruz this season. There’s also the fact that Cruz has only reached 640 plate appearances twice in his career (2012 & 2014). Hopefully Cruz will spend the majority of his time at DH, not only for defensive reasons in the real-life game, but also for health reasons. Pay for 30 home runs, not 40.
J.A. Happ
In a trade that sent many Mariner fans into a panic, the team shipped out the beloved (and often injured) Michael Saunders and received an answer to the back of their rotation in Happ. While Happ isn’t an arm to get overly excited about, the move to Safeco Field could be beneficial for the left-handed starter. As a fly-ball oriented pitcher, leaving the Roger Centre which ranked 4th best for right-handed home runs last season, for spacious Safeco Field which ranked 19th for right-handed home runs in 2014, should help lower his ERA to a degree. Happ was particularly strong in the second half of last season as he maintained a decent strike out rate while cutting his walk rate nearly in half. Once again, the long ball was an issue for Happ during the second half of the season, as he allowed 13 home runs in 81 innings pitched. A 3.65 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) shows the potential for Happ if he’s able to keep more fly-balls in the yard – which in theory, Safeco Field could do. While probably not a standard mixed-league option, Happ makes for an intriguing deep league/AL-only rotation piece in 2015.
Justin Ruggiano
While the low-cost acquisition of Ruggiano was not the high-profile acquisition many Mariner fans had dreamed of, he is still a useful player in both real-life and fantasy baseball when deployed correctly. From a fantasy standpoint, a platoon – especially one in which Ruggiano mainly faces left-handed pitching – is not ideal for many fantasy baseball leagues. Owners in deep leagues with daily transactions should pay attention however, as Ruggiano has a .508 career slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers (.836 OPS). There’s also a chance Ruggiano plays some left-field in a partial platoon with Dustin Ackley if the latter shows any signs of struggling to begin the season.
Seth Smith
Following the acquisition of Ruggiano, it was nearly a foregone conclusion that a trade involving Smith would follow. While it took several weeks for the trade to come to fruition, the Mariners got their man. Being left-handed should provide additional at-bats for Smith, as he’s likely to face right-handed pitchers this season, while playing in right field. Smith has shown a strong ability to handle right-handed pitching throughout his career, with a .839 OPS as compared to a .605 OPS against left-handed pitchers. While moving to Seattle is usually bad for a hitter, the park factors, specifically for left-handed power, between Petco Park and Safeco Field aren’t drastic enough to warrant concern. Much like Ruggiano, active fantasy owners in daily leagues can gain an advantage by plugging in a hitter such as Smith on the days a right-handed pitcher is on the mound. Smith won’t win you your league, but when deployed correctly he’s a stable enough hitter that the counting statistics alone will be worth the late-round draft pick.
The Studs
Robinson Cano
Was 2014 the beginning of the end, or merely a dip in home runs due to an increase in ground-balls? It could be both; however, betting on a Cano rebound in 2015 is a smart proposition to make. Aside from a 6 year low in home runs, Cano remained one of the best hitters in all of baseball. Cano was able to make contact at an above-average rate of 87.2%, while keeping his swinging strike rate 3% under the league average at 6.0%. It appears Cano may have been pitched around for the majority of the season, having to hit the ball up the middle or the other way more often. For his career Cano has a .973 OPS when he pulls the ball. Looking just at recent history that figure sat at .986 in 2012 & 1.010 in 2013. His OPS on pulled batted balls dropped to .738 in 2014, while his OPS on batted balls to the opposite field (left-field) rose to 1.030 as compared to a career .903 OPS. The addition of Nelson Cruz could help the Mariner’s second baseman see more pitches he’s able to pull. In turn, more balls could leave the ballpark. A return to 20 home runs, along with a strong batting average/on-base percentage, plenty of runs and RBI and even 5 to 10 stolen bases is well within reach in 2015.
Kyle Seager
Seager broke out in a big way in 2014, posting career highs in runs, home runs, RBI & batting average. At 27 years old, the chance remains that Seager could take another small step forward in 2015; however, it would be wise to not pay for anything more than his 2014 numbers at your draft or auction. For starters, Seager’s average fly-ball and home run distance in 2014 was 274.04 feet (186th among qualified batters), which placed him between Ben Zobrist (10 HR in 2014) & Eric Hosmer (9 HR in 2014). It’s also worth considering that Seager has been able to play in 155, 160 and 159 games dating back to 2012. While health is a skill a player can own, it’s also a large force behind his ability to reach or exceed 20 home runs over that same time frame. A bump, bruise or flu could require Seager to miss a few games or possibly a short DL stint, in which case his volume-based fantasy production could take a slight hit. Seager remains an attractive target in all leagues for 2015 – just don’t get overly excited and reach too early or go the extra couple of dollars.
Felix Hernandez
The best American League pitcher in the game, Hernandez should be the second pitcher off the board in your 2015 draft or auction. With a heavy ground-ball tilt that continues to get better, a strike out percentage nearly 7 percent higher than the league average over the previous two seasons and impeccable command, Hernandez is one of the great pitchers of our generation. There isn’t much more to say.
Hisashi Iwakuma
After missing the first month of the 2014 season due to a freak off-season finger injury, there’s a chance some projections will discount his innings pitched and in turn, counting statistics for the upcoming season. If this appears to be the case in your particular league, jump on the opportunity to roster this back-end fantasy ace. While Iwakuma is not the strike out artist that Felix Hernandez is, he’s able to hold his own with a slightly above league-average K% in 2013 & 2014. However, Iwakuma’s control is on another level, as shown in his K-BB% of 18.8% in 2014 (league average in 2014 was 12.7%). At 34 years old, there’s some age related risk – however, his perceived value and the fact he plays in Southeast Alaska (okay fine, Seattle) should keep his draft-day price in check.
Sleeper
Logan Morrison
Morrison will enter the year as the Mariner’s starting first baseman. Furthermore, the organization lacks in depth at this position, meaning Morrison’s opportunity to overcome any early season struggles should be lengthy enough to get an accurate read on his potential for the season. After playing sporadically during the first half of the season, Morrison was given the majority of the first base at-bats over the second half of the year. His production increased substantially. With a below average triple slash line of .230/.276/.378 in the first half, Morrison was able to raise his production level to an acceptable .284/.341/.448 in the second half of the season. It’s also important to note that Morrison will no longer be asked to play in the outfield, which might help his legs and surgically repaired knees stay healthier. There’s a sneaky 20 home run season lurking here if given regular at-bats.
Down on the Farm
D.J. Peterson
Peterson is currently a third baseman, but he could end up at first base due to sub-par range at the hot corner. Peterson’s calling card to the majors will be his bat. With a strong understanding of the strike zone and power to all fields, Peterson could make his debut at some point in 2015.
Alex Jackson
A name to stash away for a couple of years, Jackson has the potential to be an elite player in the league. Like Peterson, Jackson is a right-handed hitter with the ability to hit for both average and power to all fields.
Patrick Kivlehan
A name to watch as spring training progresses, Kivlehan’s positional versatility, along with the fact he’s a right-handed hitter, could land him a spot on the opening day roster. Kivlehan has seen time at third base, first base and the outfield during his time in the minor leagues. Considering that the Mariners have Logan Morrison starting at first base, and Jesus Montero possibly backing him up, Kivlehan may get a shot as early as next April. Kivlehan projects to be a steady hitter in terms of batting average, while chipping in average power and a handful of stolen bases. Even if Kivlehan starts the year in the minor leagues, there’s a decent chance we see him with the big league club at some point in 2015.
Dave Morris is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @dmojr.
