Injury kept Fielder off the base pads in 2014. What will the Rangers look like in 2015?
Mitch Cox is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Mitch, check out his archive.
Look up the word “forgettable” in the dictionary and you’ll see a team photo of the 2014 Texas Rangers.
A year that began in the offseason with the blockbuster trade for Prince Fielder and the free-agent signing of Shin-Soo Choo had Rangers fans excited about a return trip to the World Series. But mounting injuries, including those of the season-ending variety to Fielder, Jurickson Profar, Matt Harrison and Martin Perez to name just a few, was simply too much to overcome. It was a disastrous year culminated with the sudden resignation of manager Ron Washington a few weeks before the end of the regular season. At the end, the Rangers posted a miserable 67-95 record – the worst record in Major League Baseball.
But hope springs eternal. Despite an extremely quiet off-season (so far), the Rangers of 2015 should by no means be anywhere near the worst team in baseball, if they can stay healthy…
Here’s my take on how the upcoming Rangers season shakes out, both from a real baseball viewpoint, but more importantly, from a fantasy viewpoint.
Overall: Based on the lack of activity at the winter meetings by the Rangers, it appears that GM Jon Daniels is counting on the return to health of several of his key players for his team’s success. This might be overly optimistic because even if Fielder, Choo, etc., are healthy, the lack of starting pitching depth will more than likely crush their dreams. Pursuing a free agent like James Shields, or dare I say it, Max Scherzer would change the dynamic and the outlook immediately.
KEY POSITION PLAYERS
Prince Fielder (1B): Prior to his arrival in Arlington, Fielder was one of the most durable players, having played in all 162 games in four of the previous five seasons (and 161 games in 2010). But in 2014, it was quite obvious that there was something wrong with him, as he managed just three home runs and 16 runs batted in over his first 42 games before shutting it down. If… and that’s a HUGE “if”… Fielder is anywhere near 100% after his neck surgery last May, he could be an outstanding bargain come draft day. Remember, there was a reason the Rangers traded away a local favorite like Ian Kinsler to get him. A left-handed power hitter mashing balls into the jet stream heading out to right field? It didn’t happen in 2014, but it could happen in 2015. It better, or it could be another long year for Texas.
2014 stats: 42 games, 150 AB’s, 37 hits, 3 HR’s, 16 RBI, .247 BA
Projected 2015 stats: 150 games, 525 AB’s, 151 hits, 26 HR’s, 101 RBI .287 BA
Jurickson Profar/Rougned Odor (2B): What should be a strength is a bit of a mess right now. Profar missed all of last season with a torn shoulder muscle and is nowhere close to being ready to return. The former top prospect is still very young (he’ll be just 22 when the season begins) so there’s no reason to rush him back. He needs to return to the minors and reestablish himself before being brought back to the major league roster. Odor, a year younger than Profar, did an admirable job as the emergency replacement, compiling a respectable .259-9-48 line and showing surprising power for his frame. Odor has speed, but needs to learn how to use it better as he was successful on only 4-of-11 stolen base attempts.
Odor’s 2014 stats: 114 games, 386 AB’s, 100 hits, 9 HR’s, 48 RBI, .259 BA, 4 SB’s
Odor’s projected 2015 stats: 145 games, 495 AB’s, 127 hits, 10 HR’s, 55 RBI, .256 BA, 10 SB’s
Elvis Andrus (SS): If there was one contract the Rangers wish they could take back, it might be the ridiculous deal they gave Andrus. The eight year-$118 million albatross that keeps Andrus under Rangers control through 2022 could prove to be a critical error for a team with more pressing needs elsewhere in the lineup. This is not to say that Andrus can’t provide some fantasy help, as his 27 stolen bases will attest. It’s just that he provides little else for the Rangers in the real world, and for fantasy players everywhere.
2014 stats: 157 games, 619 AB’s, 163 hits, 2 HR’s, 41 RBI, .263 BA, 27 SB’s
Projected 2015 stats: 155 games, 615 AB’s, 155 hits, 3 HR’s, 44 RBI, .252 BA, 24 SB’s
Adrian Beltre (3B): If there is one consistent stud among the Rangers position players, it is Beltre. It would be easy to look at last year’s numbers and say the guy is in decline, and considering he’ll be 36 when the season starts, that’s not necessarily an incorrect viewpoint. But Beltre was a man on an island offensively last year and pitchers found it easy to not give him anything to hit. Despite having little or no protection in the lineup, Beltre still hit .324, the second-highest average of his career. If Choo and Fielder are healthy, and the Rangers can find someone to play left field, don’t be shocked if the old man returns to the 30 HR-100 RBI club in 2015.
2014 stats: 148 games, 549 AB’s, 178 hits, 19 HR’s, 77 RBI, .324 BA
Projected 2015 stats: 150 games, 560 AB’s, 165 hits, 28 HR’s, 101 RBI, .294 BA
Shin-Soo Choo (OF): If it weren’t for Prince Fielder’s season-ending injury and disappointing performance, the wrath of Rangers fans would have fallen on the shoulders of Choo. Signed as a free-agent to a seven year-$130 million contract to lead off and generate offense, Choo instead produced like a guy the team could have picked up off the waiver wire. Nagging injuries dogged Choo all season, and at 32 years old with a history of injuries, the outlook for a completely healthy season in 2015 is dim. Fantasy players should keep close tabs on him during spring training to see how he’s doing. Choo could provide some upside, but don’t overpay for it.
2014 stats: 123 games, 455 AB’s, 110 hits, 13 HR’s, 40 RBI, .242 BA, 3 SB’s
Projected 2015 stats: 145 games, 530 AB’s, 157 hits, 19 HR’s, 75 RBI, .296 BA, 11 SB’s
Leonys Martin (OF): Martin probably received more playing time than he deserved, but at least he stayed healthy and consistent. His 2014 numbers looked awfully similar to his 2013 stats, which isn’t necessarily a good or a bad thing. For fantasy needs, Martin will only help in the stolen base department (31 steals in 2014). He’s a plug-and-play kind of guy, or the sort of player you grab off the waiver wire later in the season when your fantasy team is home run heavy and stolen base light.
2014 stats: 155 games, 533 AB’s, 146 hits, 7 HR’s, 40 RBI, .274 BA, 31 SB’s
Projected 2015 stats: 153 games, 520 AB’s, 143 hits, 8 HR’s, 48 RBI, .275 BA, 33 SB’s
KEY PITCHERS
Yu Darvish (SP): Stud. Simple as that. As bad as the Andrus and Choo contracts look, the opposite is true of the Darvish six year-$56 million. Imagine getting one of the top pitchers in the league for under $10 million per year, and to still have him locked up for three more seasons. The only thing you need to worry about with Darvish is… what else, injury. Darvish missed the last seven weeks of the season and only made 22 starts last year (compared to 32 in 2013) due to inflammation in his elbow. Fortunately, or unfortunately, the Rangers didn’t need him as they were well out of the race by then. He has been cleared to throw so keep an eye on him in the spring and if he’s throwing well, jump on board.
2014 stats: 10-7, 3.06 ERA, 49 BB, 182 K, 1.26 WHIP
Projected 2015 stats: 15-7, 2.91 ERA, 82 BB, 242 K, 1.18 WHIP
Derek Holland (SP): Of all the freak injuries that hit the Rangers last year, none was freakier than the one that took most of the season away from the team’s prized southpaw. Prior to the start of the season, Holland was playing with his dog at his home and tripped over him running up the stairs. He underwent surgery to repair torn cartilage and other damage and didn’t return to the Rangers rotation until the first week of September. The good news for the Rangers and fantasy owners is this: Holland was outstanding in his return, posting a 2-0 record and a 1.46 ERA over six starts. With a full offseason for conditioning, and hopefully a rejuvenated offense, Holland should certainly take his place among the top 20-25 pitchers in the league and a solid No. 2 starter on your fantasy team.
2014 stats: 2-0, 1.46 ERA, 5 BB, 25 K, 1.05 WHIP
Projected 2015 stats: 14-9, 3.75 ERA, 65 BB, 177 K, 1.24 WHIP
Barring a surprise acquisition in the free-agent market of a Shields or Scherzer, the rest of the Rangers rotation is pedestrian at best. Colby Lewis will get low double-digit wins, but will kill your staff’s ERA and WHIP. Ross Detwiler, acquired from the Washington Nationals, will get a chance to start for the first time in two years, but was a mid-4.00 ERA guy as a starter with the Nationals. Nick Tepesch, Nick Martinez, etc., don’t even bother with.
Neftali Feliz (RP): Feliz regained his spot as the closer for the club and gave the team enough confidence in his abilities that they felt safe trading away Joakim Soria. Still just 26 years old (he will turn 27 in May), Feliz appeared in 30 games and came away with a 2-1 mark, a 1.99 ERA, 13 saves and a sparkling 0.98 WHIP. His K/BB ratio was not impressive (1.91) and neither was his 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings mark. But there is still upside to Feliz, and if he can increase his strikeouts while maintaining control of the zone, he could be a nice No. 2 closer on your fantasy team.
2014 stats: 2-1, 1.99 ERA, 11 BB, 21 K, 0.98 WHIP
Projected 2015 stats: 3-3, 2.42 ERA, 28 BB, 57 K, 1.16 WHIP
