Will Orioles closer Zach Britton regress in 2015?
This week’s Closer Report continues our divisional coverage of the anticipated closer situation for each team, this time profiling the American League East. We’ve already covered the National League; here are the links (East, Central and West). As always, we’ll wrap up the column with any closer related news from the past week.
The AL East has three bonafide spring competitions for the club’s closer role; in New York, Tampa (at least for the start of the season) and Toronto. In Baltimore and Boston, there is simply no assurance that the player who begins April as the closer will remain in the role for the entire season.
American League East Closer Profiles
Note: All ADP slots and projections are accurate as of 2/26/15.
Baltimore Orioles
Zach Britton started 28 games in his 2011 rookie campaign, and last season found himself completely reinvented as the Orioles’ closer, locking down 37 games in 41 chances. He kept men off the bases (0.90 WHIP) and registered a spectacular 1.65 ERA (3.13 FIP). He’s not a strikeout guy (62 K in 76.1 innings) but he gained manager Buck Showalter’s confidence as the season progressed.
Our projections, a consensus of five top sites, show Britton enjoying another fine season – 35 saves (40 chances), 4 W, 2.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 56 K in 68 IP.
Fantasy owners are drafting the left-handed Britton at #127 on average, while 95 percent of the experts’ rankings show him being overvalued at that mark. The ECR from the experts is 183, so be careful where you slot Britton.
Behind Britton is 32-year-old righty Darren O’Day. O’Day had a very solid 2014 season – 5 W, 4 saves, 25 holds, 1.70 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 0.89 WHIP and 73 K in 68.2 innings.
Boston Red Sox
Soon to be 40-year-old Koji Uehara enters camp as the top reliever in the Red Sox bullpen despite being removed from the role late in 2014. He finished the season with a 2.55 ERA (3.09 FIP) and a 0.92 WHIP which are still quality stats. He saved 26 games and struck out 80 batters in 64.1 innings. His August line (5.56 ERA and 1.59 WHIP) hurt fantasy owners, and eventually he lost the job, throwing only 4.1 innings in September.
A couple of weeks ago, Uehara admitted to Rob Bradford of WEEI 93.7 FM in Boston that he was banged up last season.
Fantasy owners are not overly concerned about the right-handed Uehara, especially after previous dazzling seasons, including most of 2014. It seems many are writing off his poor August due to the undisclosed injury. Our projections believe the same – 32 saves (35 chances), 75 K, 2.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 63 innings.
Uehara’s ADP by fantasy owners is 118 while his ECR is 120. That said, there is a wide disparity in his rankings by experts; some rank him as high as 192 and others as low as 74.
Edward Mujica will be the primary setup man in Boston again this season. The Red Sox turned to Mujica, 30, when Uehara became ineffective, and he notched five saves in September. Overall last season Mujica tossed 60 innings, recorded eight saves, three holds and 43 K. His rate stats left something to be desired – 3.90 ERA (3.70 FIP) and 1.38 WHIP.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have a situation that many teams would kill for; two incredibly capable relievers vying for the ninth-inning job. Right-hander Dellin Betances and lefty Andrew Miller entered camp as the options for manager Joe Girardi.
Girardi has stated that he would like to settle the issue before spring ends, but also said he felt comfortable beginning the season with no clear cut man in the spot. He’s since gone further and admitted that there is a slight chance that he could utilize both in the role depending on the lineup situation of the opposition. It’s believed that Girardi would like to have a set eighth- and ninth-inning man, and is completely fine with either Betances or Miller being the answer.
We’ll begin with Betances who climbed the Yankees’ bullpen depth chart with an amazing rookie campaign in 2014. Betances, who turns 27 in March, tossed 90 innings, striking out 135 batters along the way. He won five games, garnered 22 holds and his rate stats were sparkling – 1.40 ERA (1.64 FIP) and a 0.78 WHIP.
While Girardi says the closer decision is up in the air, our projections show Betances as a guy who will at least in part play the main role. In 68 innings, the estimates are quite good – 20 saves (23 chances), 4 W, 93 K, 2.34 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
If Betances is the full-time closer for the entire season that saves stat could double. If he’s not the ratio stats and the strikeouts still make him a top-flight relief choice.
As such fantasy owners are drafting Betances on average with the 91st pick (the #7 reliever), while his current ECR is 101. Seventy-seven percent of the experts say his current ADP is overvalued.
Miller, 29, who saw time with the Red Sox and Orioles last season, also blossomed into one of the best setup men in the league in 2014 – 62.1 IP, 22 holds 2.02 ERA (1.51 FIP), 0.80 WHIP and 103 K.
Miller is seen as the primary setup man to Betances by the experts and fantasy owners to date. He’s projected to save 13 games, hold 23 and strikeout 87 hitters in 59 innings. His rate stats are expected to remain elite – 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Miller’s ADP of 214 is clearly because fantasy owners expect him to setup Betances. The experts agree, and are even more confident that Miller will pitch the eighth inning, setting his rank at an average of 280. However, Miller is still valuable in deeper leagues, and this is a situation that requires monitoring throughout the spring with Girardi’s decision to come closer to the end of camp, and of course barring injury.
Tampa Bay Rays
With Jake McGee on the mend from elbow surgery and not due back until sometime in late-April, the Rays have up to three relievers vying for the role during Spring Training – Brad Boxberger, Kevin Jepsen and potentially Grant Balfour.
First, let’s check out McGee’s line since it is likely he’ll reclaim the ninth-inning job once he returns. In 2014, the 28-year-old lefty was lights out. He struck out 90 hitters in 71.1 innings pitched. His 1.89 ERA (1.73 FIP) and 0.90 WHIP are exemplary numbers. Once he gained the closer role, McGee saved 19 games in 23 chances.
Keeping in mind his late start, McGee is anticipated to shine when he returns – 59 IP, 23 saves, 72 K, 2.55 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.
Despite the fact that McGee will miss a good chunk of the beginning of the season, he is being selected in fantasy drafts fairly early on. His ADP is currently 204 and his ECR is 188. Sixty-eight percent of experts believe McGee’s ADP is undervalued. Drafting McGee late and stashing him on the disabled list seems to be the call for many owners at this point.
Boxberger, 26, put up very nice numbers in 2014 – 64.2 IP, 5 W, 18 holds, 104 K, 2.37 ERA (2.84 FIP) and a 0.84 WHIP.
Boxberger is projected to grab five saves, 25 holds and strikeout 78 hitters in 57 innings with a 2.69 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His current ADP is 269 and his ECR is 286.
Jepsen, 30, while with the Los Angeles Angels, tossed 65 innings registering a 2.63 ERA (2.78 FIP) and a 1.04 WHIP. He struck out 75 batters and held 22 games.
Jepsen is estimated to produce a good season – 55 IP, 4 saves, 21 holds, 58 K, 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jepsen’s ADP is 444 and his ECR sits at 415.
Balfour, 37, began the 2014 season as the Rays’ closer and lost the job to McGee. Overall, Balfour was completely ineffective with a 4.91 ERA (3.95 FIP), 1.44 WHIP and 12 saves. He struck out 57 batters in 62.1 innings.
Balfour is considered a wild card here, anticipated to grab six saves and tack on seven holds in 2015. In 61 innings pitched he’s projected to strike out 59 batters and record a 3.83 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. His ADP is off the charts at 653 and his ECR is more or less in line with that sitting at 577. In other words, don’t concern yourself with Balfour other than to check and see if Boxberger and Jepsen are healthy.
Again, the situation bears monitoring, but I’d expect Boxberger to the get the most save chances early on, and once McGee is healthy come the end of April, he should simply slot right back in the closer’s role.
Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Cecil and Aaron Sanchez look to be the top choices to handle ninth-inning duties in Toronto, and an old-fashioned Spring Training battle will decide their fate.
In 2014, the left-handed Cecil was quite reliable as a setup man to former closer Casey Janssen. Cecil, 28, threw 53.1 innings nailing down five saves and holding 24 games along the way. He struck out 76 hitters (12.8 K/9) and produced a 2.70 ERA (2.34 FIP). His 1.37 WHIP is bloated due to his propensity to walk batters (4.6 BB/9 in 2014, and 3.3 BB/9 for career).
Our projections show Cecil with modest closer stats in 2015 – 64 IP, 4 W, 17 saves, 75 K, 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
His current ADP sits at 277 with his ECR at 275, so fantasy owners are doing very well with respect to drafting Cecil in line with the views of the experts.
As for Sanchez, he’s just 22 years old, and he performed magnificently when on the mound in 2014. After working primarily as a starter in Toronto’s minor league system, Sanchez was called up in late July and threw 33 innings, all in relief. He notched three saves, grabbed seven holds, struck out 27 hitters and generated minuscule rate stats – 1.09 ERA (2.80 FIP) and a 0.70 WHIP.
Sanchez is projected to split time as a swingman and closer. In 33 games (13 starts), he’s expected to go 7-7, record eight saves, grab 14 holds and manufacture a 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. In 119 total innings, it’s anticipated he’ll register 93 strikeouts.
Because of the uncertainty of where Sanchez will end up (bullpen or rotation) he’s presently coming off draft boards at #257, while his ECR is quite higher at #340. This would likely jump considerably if Sanchez is tabbed the Blue Jays’ closer.
Closer News Around the League
- Francisco Rodriguez signed with the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, first reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports via Twitter. The deal is for two years with a third-year team option. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets the deal is worth $3.5 million in 2015 and $5.5 million in 2016 with $4 million deferred. The 2017 option is worth $6 million. Rodriguez had also been linked to the Marlins. He immediately slots in as the Brewers’ closer after recording 44 saves for them in 2014. Rodriguez’s current ADP of 224 will certainly get a bump from the news, as will his #241 ECR. Get Rodriguez back on your radar.
- Rafael Soriano remains unsigned and the rumor mill surrounding him has been quiet for weeks. It is conceivable that Soriano won’t sign until a team is dealt a blow to their current bullpen situation via injury.
In the three weeks before the regular season kicks off the Closer Report will begin displaying its own chart featuring the current closer or committee and the next in line to close. We will start with the National League, unveil the American League the following week and finish off with a full MLB chart one week before the season commences.
Finally, once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will house the full MLB closer chart and report on the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and provide some spec picks for the upcoming schedule.
Check back next week when we’ll cover the American League Central’s closer situations. We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.
Closer Report: National League East Preview
Closer Report: National League West Preview
Closer Report: National League Central Preview
Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.
