Addison Reed will look to improve in his second season as the closer for the Diamondbacks
For the past two weeks, we have profiled the anticipated closer situation for each team on a divisional basis. We began with the National League East and then covered the NL Central. We shift to the NL West this week and will finish by checking in on closer related news around the league. This will be done for each division over the coming weeks.
The NL West will have two relievers slotted for the closer’s role in Spring Training who were not in that position last spring. The top closer in the division is on the shelf causing an unexpected competition among a few not-so-fantastic arms. One closer is still young with upside and the other, quite frankly, is lucky to still be pitching considering his age and uninspired stuff.
National League West Closer Profiles
Note: All projections and ADP values are accurate as of 2/19/15.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Addison Reed came over to the Diamondbacks via trade with the Chicago White Sox before the 2014 season. Reed rewarded the Diamondbacks with a shaky first season as their closer, saving 32 games but blowing six.
Reed, 26, pitched to a 4.25 ERA (4.03 FIP) with a 1.21 WHIP. He struck out 69 batters in 59.1 innings, and limited his walks with just 15 on the season. He was bitten by the home run ball, allowing 11 on the season (1.7 HR/9).
Zeile Projections, a consensus of five top fantasy sites, shows Reed saving 33 games in 40 chances. Combine that with a 3.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP along with 68 K in 64 innings and you have a middle-of-the-pack closer.
Reed’s ADP of 185 is overvalued by 77 percent of those polled and the experts’ ADP is 240.
Brad Ziegler comes to spring camp presumably next in line for saves if Reed is injured or falters. Ziegler, 35, had 29 holds in 2014, but his peripheral stats took a step back – 3.49 ERA (3.70 FIP), 1.25 WHIP and just 54 K in 67 innings. His walk rate jumped to 3.2 per nine innings. If Ziegler is not earning saves, he brings little else to the table (unless your league values holds).
Colorado Rockies
LaTroy Hawkins is 42 years old, and by the looks of it, will be the Opening Day closer for the Rockies. This will be Hawkins’ 21st season in the big leagues.
In 2014, Hawkins was a competent closer for the Rockies. He earned 23 saves in 26 chances with a 3.31 ERA (3.39 FIP). He doesn’t strike out many hitters (5.3 per nine last season) and he doesn’t allow many free passes (2.2 per nine). While Hawkins didn’t kill his owners, he was not at the top of the must have list of end-game relievers either.
Hawkins is projected to garner 27 saves in 33 opportunities with a 3.72 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with a measly 39 strikeouts in 61 innings.
As of this writing Hawkins’ ADP is 331, which is a good value according to 92 percent of the experts, who have him ranked 296 on average. Either way, these are end-of-draft numbers for a closer.
Adam Ottavino, 29, enters his fourth season with the Rockies. In 2014 he had 21 holds with a 3.60 ERA (3.10 FIP) and a 1.28 WHIP. Ottavino lowered his walk rate to 2.2 per nine and recorded a career-high 9.7 K/9. He is one to keep an eye on early on for the Rockies if Hawkins falters.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers will start the season without Kenley Jansen due to surgery performed on his left foot to remove a growth. He will be out 8-12 weeks, so he is expected back sometime between mid-April and mid-May barring any setbacks.
Jansen was once again among the elite closers in baseball last season. He went 2-3, with 44 saves (a career high), 2.76 ERA (1.91 FIP), 1.13 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 65.1 innings.
Before the injury, Jansen was projected for 38 saves (4 blown), 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 96 K in 66 IP. It’s a tough blow for the Dodgers and fantasy owners. Jansen, 27, was being selected with an ADP of 62, which was overvalued by 92 percent of the experts tracked. Jansen’s ADP will surely take a dive in the coming days.
Obviously, the timing of Jansen’s comeback matters to his owners and those who have yet to draft. Missing just a couple of weeks of the season or up to six weeks could mean the difference in counting stats for your fantasy team. If you’ve already drafted Jansen, own him in a keeper league, or are still willing to draft him and stash him on your disabled list, you’ll want to check in on the trio below who were ready to be his setup crew. Unfortunately, there is no sure thing here.
Joel Peralta was brought in from Tampa where he had a successful tenure as a setup man. At 39 years old when the regular season begins, Peralta might not be the top choice for closer as he has just 12 career saves. In 2014 Peralta pitched to a 4.41 ERA (3.40 FIP), 1.18 WHIP and registered 18 holds with 74 K in 63.1 innings.
He’s projected for 23 holds, a 3.53 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 69 K in 62 innings.
Left-hander J.P. Howell is another end-game consideration for Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. Howell enters his third year with the club and was effectively wild in 2014. In 49 innings, Howell went 3-3 with a 2.39 ERA (3.30 FIP), 1.14 WHIP and 48 K. That looks nice, but his 4.6 BB/9 rate last season and a career 4.1 per nine mark makes him less desirable to close out games.
Howell, 31, is projected to turn in decent relief numbers – 25 holds, 2.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 51 K in 55 innings.
With 74 career saves, Brandon League is the only player currently on the Dodgers roster who has more than just a little experience closing. In 2014, the right-handed League pitched similarly to Howell without the strikeouts. League, 31, compiled a 2.57 ERA (3.40 FIP), 1.46 WHIP and just 38 K in 63 innings. He walked 27 batters and gave up just over one hit per inning. Again, these numbers do not exactly resemble closer stuff.
The consensus projections don’t have much faith in League either – 3.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11 holds and 38 K in 59 IP.
The Dodgers also brought in a couple of relievers with closer experience over the winter on minor league deals, David Aardsma and Sergio Santos, but the likelihood of the role falling to one of these guys is minimal. The closer situation for the Dodgers will be an evolving situation to monitor straight through the spring.
San Diego Padres
Joaquin Benoit has turned in two consecutive excellent seasons and, at 37 years old, is the Friars’ closer. Benoit was the primary setup man to Huston Street in 2014 until the latter was traded to the Los Angeles Angels. Benoit notched 11 saves in 12 opportunities over the remainder of the season. He recorded a 1.49 ERA (2.32 FIP), a tiny 0.77 WHIP and grabbed 16 holds with 64 K in 54.1 total innings.
Benoit projects to have a fine season – 28 saves, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 71 K in 61 IP. The number of saves seems low for a team that has vastly improved over the winter.
Benoit is being drafted on average at 181, which is deemed undervalued by 70 percent of the experts polled, who drafted him at 172 on average.
Kevin Quackenbush looks to be the backup for Benoit going into the 2015 season. In 2014, the 26-year-old righty was quite good, ringing up 56 batters in 54 innings. He mustered a 2.48 ERA (2.65 FIP), 1.10 WHIP with a slightly elevated BB/9 rate of 3.0.
San Francisco Giants
Santiago Casilla took over the closer role from Sergio Romo in early July and completed a very successful 2014 season. He did it without a lot of flash (just 45 K in 58.1 innings), but he managed a 1.70 ERA (3.18 FIP) and a 0.86 WHIP saving 19 games in all with 4 blown saves on the year.
Casilla, 34, is projected to fall back to Earth a bit in respect to ERA (2.86) and WHIP (1.16), while notching 28 saves along the way. The model estimates 48 strikeouts in 59 innings.
In drafts, Casilla has an ADP of 188 which is considered overvalued by 83 percent of the experts’ rankings.
Romo (3.72 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 23 saves and 59 K in 58 IP last season) lurks as the setup man in front of Casilla, and Giants manager Bruce Bochy has shown no issue in making changes in the closer role if needed. If Casilla slides and Romo is performing well, Bochy would not hesitate to make a move. It’s a situation that bears monitoring during the season.
Closer News Around the League
- Francisco Rodriguez, a Scott Boras client, is seeking a two-year deal according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. If he doesn’t get that, he wants a premium $10 million this season according to Bob Nightengale via Twitter. This could be the reason he is still sitting on the market. Rodriguez has been tied to the Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays and the Milwaukee Brewers in recent weeks. He might get a look from the Dodgers, but it is unlikely they spend like this for what could amount to just a few weeks without Jansen.
- Also according to Rosenthal, the Philadelphia Phillies are having trouble dealing closer Jonathan Papelbon. They’ve been in discussions with the Brewers, but want a top prospect if they pay most of Papelbon’s salary. The Brewers have balked for the time being.
- Rafael Soriano, another Boras client, remains unsigned. He might be had for a bit less than Rodriguez, but it still seems a long shot that the Dodgers would get involved here. The suitors have not exactly been knocking down Soriano’s door and it is conceivable that he won’t sign until another team experiences injury issues.
- The Cincinnati Reds and closer Aroldis Chapman agreed to a one-year, $8.05 million deal Feb. 13 per The Associated Press. Chapman saved 36 games last season, striking out 52.5 percent of the batters he faced in the process. He remains the first closer coming off draft boards this season.
In the three weeks before the regular season kicks off, the Closer Report will begin displaying its own chart featuring the current closer or committee and the next in line to close. We will start with the National League, unveil the American League the following week and finish off with a full MLB chart one week before the season commences.
Finally, once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will house the full MLB closer chart and report on the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and provide some spec picks for the upcoming schedule.
Check back next week when we’ll cover the American League East closer situations as Spring Training begins. We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.
Closer Report: National League East Preview
Closer Report: National League Central Preview
Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.
