Hector Rondon won’t be flying under the radar this fantasy season
Last Friday, FantasyPros began a series profiling the anticipated closer situation for each team, starting with the National League East. We will shift to the NL Central this week and also check in on closer-related news around the league. We will do this for each division over the coming weeks.
The NL Central features one of the the hardest throwers in the league, three relievers fairly safe in their roles and one who might not be his team’s closer when Spring Training begins. Bear in mind it all ninth-inning roles are volatile and fantasy owners have different methods for drafting closers. Hopefully this primer will help you in your draft process.
National League Central Closer Profiles
Note: All ADP slots and projections are accurate as of 2/12/15.
Chicago Cubs
Hector Rondon is set to continue as the Cubs’ closer after an exceptional campaign in 2014. In 63.1 innings, the soon to be 27-year-old right-hander earned 29 saves (33 chances) with four wins, 63 K, 2.42 ERA (2.26 FIP) and a 1.06 WHIP in 63.1 innings pitched.
Our Zeile projections, which create a consensus derived from the current estimates via ESPN, CBS Sports, Steamer Blog and Davenport, show Rondon performing at much the same level in 2015: three wins, 34 saves (39 chances), 64 K, 2.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
Rondon currently has an average draft pick (ADP) of 182 which is overvalued according to 83 percent of the experts surveyed. The spread of draft slots for Rondon goes from #107 to #263, so there is a wide disparity in how the experts see Rondon performing this season. A lot of this could simply be about the Cubs, as there is uncertainty about how much the club improved from last season.
Rondon, barring injury or a complete implosion, should have a firm grip on the job with Pedro Strop (61 IP, two saves, 21 holds, 2.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 71 K in 2014) and Jason Motte (25 IP, 4.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 17 K in 2014) the likely candidates for save opportunities in the incumbent’s absence.
Cincinnati Reds
Aroldis Chapman remains entrenched as the Reds’ closer in 2015. Chapman, he of the blazing 100+ mph fastball, has shown no signs of letting up since joining the league in 2010. He has saved 112 games over the last three seasons.
In 2014, Chapman converted 36 of 38 save opportunities, struck out 106 hitters while maintaining a sparkling 2.00 ERA (0.89 FIP) and a minuscule 0.83 WHIP in 54 innings. And, yes, he averaged almost two strikeouts per inning.
Zeile projects much of the same domination for the right-handed Chapman in 2015. How does 37 saves (41 chances), four wins, 114 K, 1.97 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP sound to you?
In drafts, Chapman currently owns an ADP of 45 with 88 percent of those polled saying that’s overvaluing services. Still, despite being overvalued, he is the first closer off the board as of this writing.
Chapman, who turns 27 later this month, is backed in the Reds’ bullpen by Jumbo Diaz, Sam LeCure and J.J. Hoover.
Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Broxton seems to be the “top” arm for the Brewers’ bullpen as the team heads to Spring Training. It should be noted that the Brew Crew could re-sign their former closer, Francisco Rodriguez.
The right-handed Broxton is far from the man who saved 36 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2009, but he had a serviceable 2014 season with the Reds and Brewers.
In 58.2 total innings, Broxton pitched to a 2.30 ERA (3.37 FIP) with seven saves (eight blown), 23 holds, four wins, 49 K and a 1.07 WHIP. The eight blown saves is a legitimate concern, hence the Brewers’ interest in Rodriguez, who nailed down 44 games in 49 chances for the club in 2014.
Broxton, 30, is projected to have an unspectacular yet solid season. Zeile estimates 29 saves (five blown), 17 holds, 3.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 52 K in 60 IP. Broxton presently owns a 313 ADP, which is undervalued according to 92 percent of the experts. This is good for fantasy owners who don’t draft closers until the very late rounds.
If Rodriguez is not signed by the Brewers and Broxton keeps the job, he’ll have lefty Will Smith and righty Jim Henderson backing him up.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mark Melancon earned his first save for Pittsburgh on May 3, 2014, after taking over the role from Jason Grilli, who was later traded to the Los Angeles Angels. Melancon went on to save a career-high 33 games (37 chances) and was fairly dominant in the process. In 71 innings, Melancon struck out 71 batters and pitched to a 1.90 ERA (2.09 FIP) and a 0.873 WHIP. He walked just 11 batters all season.
Melancon, who turns 30 in March, projects to produce much of the same in 2015. Zeile pegs Melancon to close out 38 games (42 chances), earn four wins and strike out 68 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The right-handed Melancon has an ADP of 96 with 84 percent of the experts slotting him later, one as low as #201.
The Pirates have the excellent Tony Watson setting up Melancon. Watson, a hard-throwing southpaw, went 10-2 with 2 saves, 34 holds, a 1.63 ERA (2.69 FIP), 1.02 WHIP and 81 K in 77.1 IP.
St. Louis Cardinals
Trevor Rosenthal kept hold of the Cardinals’ closer job, converting 45 of 51 chances in 2014, but it wasn’t exactly pretty. After a marvelous 2013 season in a setup role, Rosenthal had some hiccups in the ninth inning last year.
His ERA jumped to 3.20 (2.99 FIP) and his WHIP soared to 1.41 courtesy of a whopping 5.4 BB/9 rate. The walk rate was particularly disturbing as it was a respectable 2.4 in 2013. Despite being erratic, the 24-year-old righty continued to rack up strikeouts with 87 in 70.1 innings. While that is a great K/9 ratio, it was a decrease from 2013, when Rosenthal rung up 12.9 batters per nine innings.
Zeile sees improvement in the walk rate, which in turn helps his estimated ratios. The model shows Rosenthal garnering four wins, 39 saves and blowing just four games with 81 K in 67 innings. The projected 2.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP should further calm fantasy owners’ nerves.
Rosenthal, like the many of the other closers here, is being overvalued in drafts but not by a lot, jumping off the board at #91. The consensus among the experts shows Rosenthal worthy of the 103rd pick at the present time.
If Rosenthal shows signs of his 2014 struggles, the Cardinals have righty Jordan Walden next in line. The Redbirds received Walden as part of the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Atlanta in exchange for Jason Heyward. Walden was solid for the Braves in 2014: three saves, 20 holds, 2.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 62 K in 50 innings.
Closer News Around the League
- Rafael Soriano and Rodriguez remain unsigned but still on teams’ radar. Soriano’s market is quiet with the Toronto Blue Jays the team showing the most interest in recent weeks. As for Rodriguez, in addition to the Blue Jays and Brewers, the Miami Marlins have inquired about the 33-year-old’s services in the last few days.
- According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Atlanta Braves signed two former closers, Jose Veras and Matt Capps, to minor league contracts with invites to spring training. Veras, 34, had a 4.50 ERA (4.61 FIP), 1.39 WHIP and 50 K in 46 total innings splitting time with the Cubs and then Houston Astros, where he was much more successful. Capps, 31, is trying to make a comeback from right shoulder injuries. He last pitched in the majors in 2012 with the Minnesota Twins.
Check back next week when we’ll cover the National League West.
In the three weeks before the regular season kicks off the Closer Report will begin displaying its own chart featuring the current closer or committee and the next in line to close. We will start with the National League, unveil the American League the following week and finish off with a full MLB chart one week before the season commences.
Finally, once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will house the full MLB closer chart and report on the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and provide some spec picks for the upcoming schedule.
We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.
Closer Report: National League East Preview
Closer Report: National League West Preview
Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.
