Is it easier to predict WR success than that of RBs?

*Note: This is an in-depth analysis. Click here if you’d rather jump right to the Top 10 WR Predictions. We highly recommend circling back to the full analysis to learn why the predictions were made.

This is Part Deux of Predicting the Top 10 for 2015. For the OG (my tribute to Straight Outta Compton), please check out my Top 10 RB Predictions. BTW, I was born and raised in Los Angeles, but spent many years in NYC. I always enjoy listening to KRS-One and Notorious B.I.G., but my first exposure to hip hop was The D.O.C. and N.W.A.

Anyway, back on topic. I never envisioned a Part Deux when I wrote the OG, but I guess it makes sense and is a natural extension. I have to give a shout out to Mr. Puma Emcee (@mrpumamc) as he was the one who wrote to me on Twitter and requested a wide receiver edition. I feel like a deejay now.

I did read the comments in the section at the bottom of the OG. I’d like to thank everyone for taking the time to read the article and offer their thoughts. I apologize for not responding, but I’m not on Facebook. The positive comments are definitely uplifting and let me know that I’m doing something right and offering something of value.

I do also appreciate the critical comments as well. That’s the beauty of fantasy football and life in general. We all see the world differently and come to different conclusions. When alternative thoughts are brought up, it allows me see things that I may have overlooked something or can think of things in a different light. At the end of the day, getting better at fantasy football is why we are all here, right?

My primary motivation for the running back piece was due to the proliferation of the “Zero RB” drafting strategy. The basic premise of this strategy is that running backs are too risky due to injury and usage (RBBC). Was there a way to mitigate the risk or identify trends from history that could assist with choosing the right running back?

The “Zero RB” strategy advocates drafting wide receivers. “The wide receiver gets more projected points when you adjust projections for risk.” If that’s the case, then ADP for wide receivers should be able to predict the final top 10 at a much higher rate than for running backs, right?

Going back 10 years, though, that just hasn’t been the case. Here’s a look of the percentage of top 10 ADP WRs that finished the season in the top 10, per season.

(Historical ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com. Historical fantasy points data courtesy of footballguys.com. Data is for standard scoring.)

In the below exercise, I will look at the past 10 years to see why predicting the top 10 wide receivers has been as much of a coin flip as was the case for the running back position. Let’s take another trip down memory lane.

PAST 10 YEARS

2005

The Studs

• Marvin Harrison
• Torry Holt
• Chad Johnson

The Disappointments

• Randy Moss – Traded to the Oakland Raiders. In 2004, Moss missed three games due to injury for the first time in his career, yet he still managed to score 13 touchdowns. From 1998-2003, the lowest yardage total was 1,313 and he tallied double-digit touchdowns in every season except 2002 (7). ADP was #1 WR. Finished as the #15 WR.
• Terrell Owens – Helped the Eagles reach the Super Bowl in 2004, then TO went TO. Hired Drew Rosenhaus to get a new contract, threatened to hold out, made disparaging remarks about Donovan McNabb and Eagles management, and was finally suspended without pay for four games then deactivated for the season. Finished as the #32 WR.
• Javon Walker – Tried to renegotiate contract with…Drew Rosenhaus. What a year for the agent. Threatened to hold out but relented. Injured ACL in the first game and was done for the year.
• Reggie Wayne – Scored 12 touchdowns in 2004. Only scored five in 2005. Finished as the #21 WR.
• Joe Horn – Missed three games due to hamstring injury.
• Andre Johnson – Missed three games due to injury.
• Nate Burleson – Missed four games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Steve Smith – ADP #13 WR. Finished as the #1 WR. Missed 15 games in 2004 after breaking his leg. Returned in 2015 and finished with the WR Triple Crown; first in receptions (103), yards (1,563), and touchdowns (12).
• Larry Fitzgerald – ADP #19 WR. Had a successful rookie season in 2004. Kurt Warner’s first year in Arizona. Although Warner missed six games to injury, Josh McCown was more than capable that year. 103 receptions.
• Santana Moss – ADP #34 WR. Traded from the Jets to the Redskins.
• Joey Galloway – ADP #50 WR. Was traded from the Cowboys to the Buccaneers in 2004. Missed six games due to injury in 2004. Bounced back in 2005 for a career-year. The Buccaneers selected Carnell Williams, who won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, and gave the team a legitimate rushing threat.
• Chris Chambers – ADP #18 WR. Nick Saban’s first year in Miami. Potent rushing attack with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.
• Anquan Boldin – ADP #17 WR. see Larry Fitzgerald above. 102 receptions.
• Hines Ward – ADP #11 WR. Coming off four consecutive seasons with 1,000+ yards. Held out two weeks of training camp for a contract extension. Signed before the start of the season. Ward did miss one game due to injury, snapping his consecutive games started streak at 83 and games played at 116.

2006

The Studs

• Steve Smith
• Chad Johnson
• Marvin Harrison
• Torry Holt
• Terrell Owens
• Reggie Wayne

The Disappoinments

• Larry Fitzgerald – Missed three games due to injury.
• Randy Moss – Missed three games due to injury. All you need to know about the 2006 Oakland Raiders; Andrew Walters and Aaron Brooks both threw three touchdowns each for the whole season.
• Anquan Boldin – Finished as the #17 WR. Only caught four touchdowns. Rookie Matt Leinart started 11 games.
• Chris Chambers – Joey Harrington started 11 games for the Dolphins.

The Replacements

• Donald Driver – ADP #16 WR. Mike McCarthy’s first year as head coach. Driver became Favre’s de facto number one receiver in 2005.
• Lee Evans – ADP #25 WR. Dick Jauron’s first year as head coach. Became number one receiver in 2006 after Eric Moulds left.
• Javon Walker – ADP #18 WR. Traded to the Broncos after spending four seasons in Green Bay.
• Roy Williams – Third year in the league. First healthy season after missing two games in 2004 and three games in 2005. Joey Harrington was replaced at quarterback with Jon Kitna.

2007

The Studs

• Chad Johnson
• Terrell Owens
• Reggie Wayne
• Larry Fitzgerald
• T. J. Houshmandzadeh
• Marques Colston

The Disappointments

• Steve Smith – Finished as the #16 WR. Not bad considering the Panthers started four different quarterbacks that year; Jake Delhomme, Vinny Testaverde, David Carr, and Matt Moore.
• Marvin Harrison – Missed 11 games due to injury.
• Torry Holt – Finished #13 WR. Had a great year but only scored seven touchdowns. Also, Marc Bulger started 12 games, with Gus Frerotte and Brock Berlin starting the other four.
• Roy Williams – Missed four games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Randy Moss – ADP #12 WR. Just the greatest season from a wide receiver in the history of the NFL and fantasy. As a Raiders fan, this one hurt…a lot. Traded to the Patriots no less. Grrrrr.
• Braylon Edwards – ADP #25 WR. Third year in the league. The acquisition of Jamaal Lewis at running back was huge for the whole offense.
• Brandon Marshall – ADP #52 WR. Injuries forced him to miss training camp.
• Plaxico Burress – ADP #17 WR. Struggled with groin injury in 2006. Suffered an ankle injury during training camp that caused him to miss most of the preseason.

2008

The Studs

• Randy Moss
• Terrell Owens
• Larry Fitzgerald
• Andre Johnson
• Steve Smith

The Disappointments

• Reggie Wayne – Finished as the #14 WR. Only scored six touchdowns.
• Braylon Edwards – Led the league with 23 drops. Only scored three touchdowns. Four different quarterbacks started a game for the Browns; Derek Anderson (9), Ken Dorsey (3), Brady Quinn (3), and Bruce Gradkowski (1).
• Marques Colston – Missed five games due to injury.
• T. J. Houshmandzadeh – Coming off a 112 reception, 1,143 yards, and 12 touchdown season in 2007. Caught 92 balls in 2008, but only scored four touchdowns. Carson Palmer missed 14 games due to injury and Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced him.
• Plaxico Burress – Contract drama. Burress did not practice much and was suspended by the team. Played in 10 games, but was a non-factor all season.

The Replacements

• Calvin Johnson – ADP #17 WR. After the 2007 season, Megatron stated that his lower-back bothered him all season, causing him to be on meds the whole year. That, and perhaps the terrible state of the Lions franchise, depressed his value. Three quarterbacks started for the Lions in 2008; Dan Orlovsky (7), Jon Kitna (4), and Daunte Culpepper (5).
• Greg Jennings – ADP #19 WR. Third year in the league. Missed two games in 2006 and three games in 2007. Aaron Rodgers‘ first year starting.
• Roddy White – ADP #27 WR. The year after Michael Vick‘s dog fighting scandal and Bobby Petrino’s resignation. Mike Smith’s first year as head coach and Matt Ryan‘s rookie season. White broke out in his third year (2007) with 83 receptions, 1,202 yards, and six touchdowns. The Falcons also acquired Michael Turner to give them a legitimate ground game.
• Anquan Boldin – ADP #15 WR. Had an insane season. Missed four games due to injury, yet caught 89 balls for 1,038 yards and 11 touchdowns. Kurt Warner was the quarterback and the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl. Boldin missed four games in 2007.
• Antonio Bryant – ADP #69 WR. A true Milli Vanilli. Did not play in 2007 and signed for the minimum with the Buccaneers. Came to a team that had a 36-year-old Joey Galloway as it’s number one receiver.

2009

The Studs

• Larry Fitzgerald
• Randy Moss
• Andre Johnson
• Reggie Wayne
• Roddy White

The Disappointments

• Calvin Johnson – Missed two games due to injury. Jim Schwartz’s first year as head coach and Matthew Stafford‘s rookie year. Three quarterbacks started for the Lions; Stafford (10), Daunte Culpepper (5), and Drew Stanton (1).
• Greg Jennings – Only caught 68 passes and scored four touchdowns. Ryan Grant was a beast running the ball in 2009, as he scored 11 touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers spread the ball around. Donald Driver led the team with 70 receptions.
• Steve Smith – Missed one game due to injury. 2009 was when Jake Delhomme turned into Chuck Knoblauch and forgot how to throw. He threw eight touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He also missed five games, so Matt Moore played.
• Anquan Boldin – Missed one game due to injury. Only scored four touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald went nuts and caught 13 touchdowns.
• Marques Colston – Finished as #13 WR. Drew Brees spread the wealth, as seven receivers had 35+ receptions.

The Replacements

• Miles Austin – ADP #59 WR. Third year in league. Missed four games due to injury in 2008. Terrell Owens was released in the offseason. Roy Williams injury gave Austin his first start.
• DeSean Jackson – ADP #19 WR. Had a successful rookie year in 2008.
• Sidney Rice – ADP #65 WR. Third year in league. Missed three games in each of his first two seasons. Some guy named Brett Favre joined the team.
• Brandon Marshall – ADP #20 WR. Coming off consecutive 100+ catch seasons, but had offseason hip surgery. He did not play in any of the preseason games due to being suspended by the Broncos.
• Vincent Jackson – ADP #17 WR. Since entering the league in 2005, Jackson increased his receptions, targets, and yards in each season.

2010

The Studs

• Andre Johnson
• Reggie Wayne
• Calvin Johnson
• Roddy White
• Greg Jennings

The Disappointments

• Randy Moss – Wanted a contract extension from the Patriots, who ended up trading him to the Vikings. Criticized head coach Brad Childress then was waived. The Titans claimed Moss off waivers.
• Larry Fitzgerald – Finished as the #16 WR. Had a good year but only scored six touchdowns. The three quarterbacks for the Cardinals in 2010; Derek Anderson (9), John Skelton (4), and Max Hall (3).
• Miles Austin – Finished #12 WR.
• Brandon Marshall – Traded to the Dolphins. Missed two games due to injury. Caught balls from Chad Henne and Tyler Thigpen. Only scored three touchdowns.
• DeSean Jackson – Contract extension drama in the offseason. Missed two games due to injury. Jeremy Maclin became a prominent weapon. Michael Vick missed time and Kevin Kolb started five games.

The Replacements

• Brandon Lloyd – Wasn’t drafted in fantasy leagues. Finished as the #1 WR. Missed eight games in 2007 while playing for the Redskins. Missed five games while playing for the Bears in 2008. Missed 14 games in 2009 after arriving in Denver. Perhaps the Josh McDaniels offense suited Lloyd perfectly.
• Dwayne Bowe – ADP #21 WR. Was immediately successful upon entering the league. Increased his receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns from year one to year two. Missed five games in 2009.
• Mike Wallace – ADP #26 WR. Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets, elevating Wallace to #2 on the depth chart.
• Hakeem Nicks – ADP #20 WR. Second year in the league. Had success as a rookie. Missed two games in 2009. Nicks ended his rookie season as #2 on the Giants depth chart.
• Stevie Johnson – Wasn’t drafted in fantasy leagues. Missed five games his rookie year (2008). Missed 11 games in 2009. Had a good offseason and won the starting receiver position.

2011

The Studs

• Calvin Johnson
• Roddy White
• Vincent Jackson
• Mike Wallace
• Larry Fitzgerald

The Disappointments

• Andre Johnson – Missed nine games due to injury. Missed three games in 2010.
• Greg Jennings – Missed three games due to injury.
• Hakeem Nicks – Finished as the #12 WR.
• DeSean Jackson – Contract extension drama. Was deactivated a game for missing a special teams meeting. Was benched in the fourth quarter of a game. Ended the year with 58 receptions, 961 yards, and four touchdowns.
• Miles Austin – Missed six games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Jordy Nelson – ADP #46 WR. Performed well in Super Bowl XLV; nine receptions, 140 yards, and one touchdown. Was third on the depth chart behind Donald Driver and Greg Jennings.
• Wes Welker – ADP #15 WR. Missed one game in 2010 and two games in 2009. Prior to 2010, Welker posted three straight seasons with 111+ catches. Patriots drafted Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in 2010. With those two fully integrated, the Patriots increased the tempo of the offense. Tom Brady attempted 492 passes in 2010. That number ballooned to 612 in 2011.
• Victor Cruz – Wasn’t drafted in fantasy. Showed himself to the world in the 2010 preseason. Caught six passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns. Shut down after five games due to a hamstring injury. In 2011, Cruz started the season #4 on the depth chart, but injuries to Mario Manningham and Domenik Hixon opened the door.
• Steve Smith – ADP #34 WR. Missed two games in 2010 and that was Jimmy Clausen‘s rookie year. The Panthers drafted Cam Newton in 2011.
• Percy Harvin – ADP #23 WR. Third year in the league. Increased receptions, targets, and yards in his first two years. Missed two games in 2010 and one game in 2009. Bill Musgrave replaced Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator.

2012

The Studs

• Calvin Johnson
• Andre Johnson
• Julio Jones
• A. J. Green
• Roddy White

The Disappointments

• Larry Fitzgerald – Four quarterbacks started for the Cardinals in 2012; John Skelton (6), Kevin Kolb (5), Ryan Lindley (4), and Brian Hoyer (1).
• Wes Welker – Finished as the #12 WR.
• Greg Jennings – Missed eight games due to injury.
• Victor Cruz – Finished as the #13 WR.
• Jordy Nelson – Missed four games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Brandon Marshall – ADP #11 WR. Reunited and it feels so good. Traded to Da Bears to be with his BFF Jay Cutler.
• Dez Bryant – ADP #14 WR. Third year in the league. Increased all stats from year one to year two. Missed four games in 2010 and one game in 2011.
• Demaryius Thomas – ADP #18 WR. Third year in the league. Missed six games in 2010 and five games in 2011. Some guy named Peyton Manning signed with the Broncos. He was pretty good that year.
• Vincent Jackson – ADP #22 WR. Signed with Tampa Bay in the offseason.
• Eric Decker – ADP #23 WR. Two words, Peyton Manning. Third year in the league.

2013

The Studs

• Calvin Johnson
• A.J. Green
• Dez Bryant
• Brandon Marshall
• Demaryius Thomas

The Disappointments

• Julio Jones – Missed 11 games due to injury.
• Larry Fitzgerald – Finished #17 WR. Bruce Arians’ first year as head coach.
• Andre Johnson – Finished #13 WR.
• Randall Cobb – Missed 10 games due to injury.
• Roddy White – Missed three games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Josh Gordon – ADP #36 WR. First year with Norv Turner as offensive coordinator. Rod Chudzinski’s first year as head coach. Performed well his rookie year.
• Antonio Brown – ADP #24 WR. Mike Wallace was released after the 2012 season, putting Brown #1 on the depth chart. Missed three games due to injury in 2012.
• Eric Decker – ADP #21 WR. Peyton Manning. In the offseason, the Broncos said that they were going to be more uptempo and try and run more plays. Time for pat on the back. I traded up in the draft to select Peyton Manning for that reason (2-QB league).
• Alshon Jeffery – ADP #51 WR. Marc Trestman’s first year as head coach. Missed six games due to injury his rookie year. Played opposite Brandon Marshall.
• DeSean Jackson – ADP #25 WR. Chip Kelly’s first year as head coach. Missed five games due to injury in 2012. Signed contract extension in 2012.

2014

The Studs

• Demaryius Thomas
• Dez Bryant
• Jordy Nelson
• Antonio Brown
• Randall Cobb
• Julio Jones

The Disappointments

• Calvin Johnson – Missed three games due to injury. Missed two games due to injury in 2013.
• A.J. Green – Missed three games due to injury.
• Brandon Marshall – Missed three games due to injury.
• Alshon Jeffery – Finished as #12 WR.

The Replacements

• Odell Beckham Jr. – ADP #65 WR. Missed training camp, preseason, and the first four games due to a hamstring injury. Was selected with the 12th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Victor Cruz got injured in 2014, opening a spot on the depth chart.
• Emmanuel Sanders – ADP #27 WR. Eric Decker went to the Jets and Sanders was brought in from Pittsburgh. Peyton Manning.
• Jeremy Maclin – ADP #28 WR. Missed all of 2013 due to injury. DeSean Jackson was removed from the team. Maclin was the #1 receiver on the depth chart.
• T. Y. Hilton – ADP #23 WR. Third year in the league. Yards, targets, and receptions all increased from rookie year to year two. Became Luck’s #1 receiver in 2013 when Reggie Wayne went down with injury.

Deciphering the data

The injuries obviously stand out. For comparisons sake, 33 running backs disappointed due to injury. Football is a physical and violent game. Injuries, unfortunately, are part of it. The notion that wide receivers are safer because they don’t get injured as much is up for debate.

Whenever there are question marks, especially related to injury, value is often procured. Scheme change, new quarterback situations, and depth chart movements are tangible things that we can all sink our teeth into. The interesting ones for me are the 2nd- and 3rd-year receivers. There was the whole notion of the “Third-Year Receiver” phenomenon. I didn’t realize how many second year receivers broke out. Now, rookies are coming in and making an immediate impact.

Predicting the top 10 WRs in 2015

Now for the fun part. I will try and predict which wide receivers will not provide ADP value and those that will replace them.

2015 ADP

1. Antonio Brown
2. Dez Bryant
3. Odell Beckham Jr.
4. Julio Jones
5. Demaryius Thomas
6. Calvin Johnson
7. A.J. Green
8. Jordy Nelson
9. Randall Cobb
10. Mike Evans

Since ADP usually only predicts 50% of the final list, I’ve put in bold those five that I feel will finish in the top 10. The five that I think will fall out of the top 10 are:

• Demaryius Thomas
  NEW COACH: Gary Kubiak is now the head coach of the Broncos. Thomas will still get his, but the offense will undergo a major philosophical change. The uptempo scheme will probably be replaced with more ball control. I’d be shocked if Manning attempts more than 560 passes this year. LOWER TD TOTAL/DOMINANT RUN GAME: There will probably be more emphasis on the run game and the Broncos defense is solid. Thomas has caught 11, 14, and 10 touchdowns the last three seasons. Like I said, he’s still going to get his, but if his numbers go to 90 rec/1,200 yards/8 touchdowns, then there’s a chance he could finish outside the top 10.

• Odell Beckham Jr.
  INJURY CONCERN: The talent is obvious. He had a sick rookie year, but there are injury concerns. He missed time last year due to a hamstring injury and is dealing with a hamstring injury now. Victor Cruz is slated to return to the mix. How will the pie be divvied up?

• Calvin Johnson
  INJURY CONCERN: Get more energon cubes to Detroit! Megatron missed three games last year and two games in 2013. He will be turning 30 this September. ANOTHER GOOD RECEIVER/QB SPREADING IT AROUND: Golden Tate proved more than capable last year during Johnson’s absense. In no way am I saying that Tate will supplant Megatron on the depth chart. What I’m saying is that Matthew Stafford may feel that he doesn’t have to just chuck it up to Megatron, as he’s been known to do in the past. The Lions selected Ameer Abdullah in the 2015 NFL Draft. He’s been nothing short of electric so far and is slated to reprise the Reggie Bush role. He’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield.

• Jordy Nelson
  INJURY CONCERN: Had hip surgery in the offseason. Missed four games in 2012 and three games in 2009. LOWER TD TOTAL: Touchdowns are impossible to predict. Many receivers have good years, yet end up outside the top 10 because of a low touchdown total. PLAYING WITH GOOD RECEIVERS/QB SPREADS IT AROUND: Aaron Rodgers is amazing and he has a bevy of weapons to throw to. Randall Cobb is going to get his and Davante Adams is poised to be a contributor this year.

• Mike Evans
  I think Evans is the most obvious candidate to disappoint. ROOKIE QB/POOR QB PLAY: Jameis Winston was drafted with the #1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. While he is talented and an upgrade over Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, he’s still a rookie. The commentary on Winston so far has been that he locks onto his receivers. Defenses will feast on that. Also, the Bucs do not have a great offensive line. PLAYING WITH GOOD RECEIVERS/QB SPREADING IT AROUND: Vincent Jackson is a talented receiver and many are expecting a bounce back year from him. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has been drawing rave reviews catching passes from the tight end position. He may become the rookie’s security blanket.

Now for the replacements:

• Brandin Cooks
  ADP #14 WR. RETURNING FROM INJURY: Missed the final six games of 2014 due to a broken finger. 2ND YEAR IN LEAGUE: Eight of the replacements were in their second year. I know it’s not scientific and there is probably no correlation, but it’s happened. As I said in the OG article, we may never know until someone can return from the fifth dimension and beyond to educate us. POTENT RUN GAME/SCHEME CHANGE: The Saints traded away Jimmy Graham and brought in center Max Unger. It looks like Sean Payton wants to return to the offense that won the Super Bowl in 2009. Mark Ingram ran with explosion and power last year and the acquisition of C.J. Spiller should add dynamism to the run game as well. With a vibrant run game, the play action will be potent. Cooks should find plenty of space in the secondary to exploit. BECAME #1 RECEIVER: With Graham in Seattle, Cooks is now the #1 receiver.

• Jeremy Maclin
  ADP #24 WR. NEW TEAM: Now in Kansas City. POTENT RUN GAME: Jamaal Charles. ‘Nuff said. BECAME #1 RECEIVER: With Dwayne Bowe gone, Maclin assumes the #1 receiver duties. NEW QB/SCHEME CHANGE: While going from Chip Kelly’s system to Andy Reid’s system is a downgrade, there are some positives in the change. Maclin is familiar with Reid and his scheme, as Reid was the one to draft him. Alex Smith is no doubt a game manager, but Maclin could be the perfect receiver for him because he’s quick and runs precise routes. Smith is more of a timing-based thrower rather than a chucker. We all harp on the fact that he didn’t throw a touchdown to a wide receiver last year. Yes, that is pretty hilarious yet sad at the same time, but that will probably not happen again.

• Nelson Agholor
  ADP #31 WR. POTENT RUN GAME: Chip Kelly signed Demarco Murray and Ryan Mathews in the offseason. His offense has always been predicated on the run first. With the threat of a potent run game, the receivers are going to be one-on-one with tons of space to roam around in the secondary. BECOME #1 RECEIVER? This is definitely a stretch, as Jordan Matthews will probably be the #1, but it’s a possibility. I’m very, very high on Agholor. He’s quick, fast, and can take the top off a defense. I do think that he can replicate Maclin’s 2014. I know I’m higher and more optimistic on him than most. But hey, it’s my article.

• Charles Johnson
  ADP #38 WR. 2ND YEAR IN LEAGUE. See Brandin Cooks above. POTENT RUN GAME: Adrian Peterson…an angry Adrian Peterson. SCHEME CHANGE: Norv Turner’s in. Bill Musgrave is out. Turner is a disciple of the Air Coryell offense, which features a power run game with a passing attack that forces the defense to cover the whole field. Many believe that Mike Wallace will be the main beneficiary in this offense, but I think Johnson will benefit most. He already has a nice rapport with Teddy Bridgewater and the Air Coryell relies on a tall receiver who can stretch the field and win jump ball situations. Wallace cannot do the latter.

• John Brown
  ADP #45 WR. 2ND YEAR IN LEAGUE. I guess I like the whole second year thing. MOVE UP DEPTH CHART/BECOME #1 RECEIVER?: With Michael Floyd dislocating his fingers, Brown moves to #2 on the depth chart. I think there’s a chance that he moves to #1 and supplants Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz is 31 years old and isn’t catching 90+ balls like in his prime. Brown has been living with Carson Palmer in the offseason so the rapport and chemistry will probably be there. Former GM Bill Polian of ESPN compared Brown to Colts star Marvin Harrison.

Conclusion

Following the herd is the safe and easy way to live life. It provides a sense of community and allows an emotional safety net. I personally let ADP affect me way too much at times. But in order to elevate from the masses, one must take that lonely step that goes against conventional wisdom. Think of John Paulson, who made $4 billion betting against the U.S. subprime mortgage lending market when everyone thought the housing market would go up forever. Shawn Siegele is credited with coining and executing the Zero RB strategy to profit into the hundreds of thousands in 2013 when the conventional wisdom was to always build a fantasy roster around stud running backs. What do Paulson and Siegele have in common? They were both able to identify something that the majority of society could not. Then they took the most difficult task of actually putting their money where their mouth was and execute upon that information.

As the excercises of trying to predict the top 10 have shown, there could be value to be exploited. How? I don’t know, but it seems to be out there. It’s going to require thought and the ability to identify some minute detail that everyone is overlooking. Or it can be that elusive butterfly that we were searching for in the running back edition. Could it all be random and coincidental? Sure, but I obviously don’t believe that or I’d be just throwing darts at the board.

Once an edge is identified, everyone will start to utilize it until the edge is no longer an edge. The fate of the Zero RB will be no different. The fantasy puzzle will continue to morph and evolve until a new strategy is required and eventually conceptualized.

Continue to observe. Continue to think. That next exploitable edge is out there. One of us will eventually spot it.

Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.