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2015-2016 Fantasy Basketball SG Rankings

2015-2016 Fantasy Basketball SG Rankings
James Harden (left) and Klay Thompson (right) are the top shooting guard targets on Draft Day

James Harden (left) and Klay Thompson (right) are the top shooting guard targets on Draft Day

James Harden – HOU (27.4/5.7/7.0)
James Harden could have been the MVP last year, and rewarded fantasy owners with excellent numbers across the board. Harden wants to play off the ball more with Ty Lawson joining the Rockets, meaning his league high 824 free throw attempts from last season will decline. He is a top three selection on Draft Day and will be the focal point again in Houston.

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Klay Thompson – GSW (21.7/2.9/3.2)
Klay Thompson spent time working with new assistant coach Steve Nash improving his balance when handling the ball. On the defensive end, Thompson has improved every season in terms of steals and blocks per game. Get this guy drafted by the second round.

Jimmy Butler – CHI (20.0/3.3/5.8)
Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose are said to be the featured players in Fred Hoiberg’s offense. It’s hard to predict Rose’s effectiveness due to his health, but Butler can be relied on to carry the load. Breaking out for 20.0 points per game, Butler could see more time at small forward after Mike Dunleavy’s back surgery. The opportunities will be there as the Bulls are expected to play at a faster pace this season.

Victor Oladipo – ORL (17.9/4.1/4.2)
After missing the first nine games of the season, Victor Oladipo struggled to find his rhythm, averaging 14 points in the first two months of the season. The final four were a different story since his averages ballooned to 19.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and four assists per game.

Tyreke Evans – NOR (16.6/6.6/5.3)
After breaking onto the scene averaging over 20 points in his rookie season, Tyreke Evans’ scoring output has declined every season until last year. However, make sure you don’t rely on Evans being your PG1. He was already on the Pelicans’ injury list for their first preseason game.

DeMar DeRozan – TOR (20.1/3.5/4.6)
After shooting 28% from the arc last season, DeRozan vowed to improve his shot this summer. Money will be a big motivator for the former USC Trojan and with the salary cap expected to rise significantly, I would bet on him having a great season.

Nicolas Batum – CHA (9.4/4.8/5.9)
It wasn’t long ago when Nicolas Batum was a fantasy monster, but a wrist injury lingered last season. Acquired by the Charlotte Hornets in the offseason, he is expected to have the offense run through him. Batum is worth a mid-round selection, even if he is being thrown into the wolves.

Monta Ellis – IND (18.9/4.1/2.4)
Monta Ellis will be the No. 2 option in the Pacers’ offense. Still only 29 years old (how?), Ellis continues to produce at a high level. Vigilant Sports predicted that he would be the primary ball handler with George Hill playing more off the ball. Ellis has been one of the more durable players in the NBA the past three seasons, only missing two games. Grab Monta in the middle rounds.

Khris Middleton – MIL (13.4/2.3/4.4)
After Jabari Parker went down with an ACL tear, Middleton averaged 16.7 points, 4.9 boards, 3.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.5 treys, which gave him third-round value in fantasy leagues. From January until the end of the season, Middleton averaged more than 30 minutes per game including 38.5 minutes in the playoffs. The uptick in the playoffs was the same indicator for breakout performances from Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard.

Kyle Korver – ATL (12.1/2.6/4.1)
The 34-year-old sharpshooter was cleared for basketball activities on September 21 after having surgery on his ankle. With the departure of DeMarre Carroll, more shots are expected to open up. Korver has never averaged more than 14.4 points per game, but his all-around contributions in rebounds, assists and elite 3-point shooting translate well into mid round value. Despite coming off surgery, grab him in the middle rounds of drafts.

Dwyane Wade – MIA (21.5/4.8/3.5)
He played in only 62 games last season. In addition, he’s only played in 70+ games five times in his 12-year career. But If you’re loaded in the point guard and power forward positions, Dwyane Wade is well worth the risk for the averages he can still put up.

Danny Green – SAS (11.7/2.0/4.2)
The Spurs’ original “Big Three” is expected to have their minutes capped, which could give way for the team’s new “Big Three” in LaMarcus Aldridge, Leonard and Green. Green has averaged double-digit points only twice in his career, but offers upside in three-point shooting and contributes in rebounding. His defense will keep himself on the floor, which will translate in more three-point shots.

Bradley Beal – WAS (15.3/3.1/3.8)
Like many players this year, Beal will be looking to cash in on the new salary cap hike. Beal has been working on his mid-range jumper over the season after shooting a horrid 35% including 29.2% on the right side of the floor. His 13.5 shot attempts should go back up to the 15-17 range since Paul Pierce is now with the Clippers. Beal has the potential to be a steal in drafts. But beware of his turnovers, which have risen each season.

Arron Afflalo – NYK (13.3/1.7/3.2)
Arron Afflalo already has the praise of the New York Knicks czar Phil Jackson after he said Afflalo “has the capability of playing aggressive defense on big guards and small forwards, plus he’s a shot-maker.” Afflalo should be the No. 2 option in the offense behind Carmelo Anthony. Grab Afflalo towards the back of the draft.

Wilson Chandler – DEN (13.9/1.7/6.1)
Wilson Chandler will see a lot of opportunities to score as the No. 2 option. Chandler is consistently averaging double digits in scoring and had a career-high in rebounds this past season. Jusuf Nurkic is supposed to miss the start of the season, leaving even more opportunities for loose balls. Chandler is worth a flier in most leagues.

C.J. McCollum – POR (6.8/1.0/1.5)
With C.J. McCollum, it’s hard to predict how his body will hold up with more minutes placed on his body now that he’s the projected starter. McCollum stepped up in a big way for the Trail Blazers last season in the playoffs where he averaged 17 points, four rebounds, and 2.2 3-point makes per game.

Kevin Martin – MIN – (20.0/2.3/3.6)
According to Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press, Martin “made it pretty clear” he wants to start this season. While he might start for the Timberwolves, his season more than likely will not end with them since Minnesota is trying to transition Zach LaVine to shooting guard. There’s no denying Martin’s fantasy game as he’s averaged over 20 points six of his 11 seasons. His unorthodox shot is well worth the risk for the beginning of the season, just be prepared to trade or drop him quickly.

J.J. Redick – LAC – (16.4/1.8/2.1)
J.J. Redick has steadily become a viable fantasy starter these past few seasons. His field goal attempts have risen each season, along with his scoring. Owners have always been able to count on his field goal, three-point, and free throw percentages to be near the top of the league for shooting guards. However, the additions of Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson will diminish his value, along with the new Hack-a-Jordan strategy. I would pass on anyone not named Chris Paul, Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan this season for the Clippers.

Wesley Matthews – DAL – (15.9/2.3/3.7)
Achilles injuries are by far the hardest injuries to recover from, especially for basketball players. His contributions across the board are excellent, though, but the fact that he’s a longshot for the season opener puts him as a late round target. Keep expectations low for Matthews as the Mavericks will mostly run their offense through a variety of players and give rookie Justin Anderson plenty of run.

Alec Burks – UTA – (13.9/3.0/4.2)
As of right now, it seems Alec Burks is the starting shooting guard for the Utah Jazz. His averages last season of 13.9/3.0/4.2 offer upside for the young guard. Burks was third on the team with an offensive rating of 1.5 (the team scored 103.7 points with him on the court compared to 102.2 with him off the court). More playmaking opportunities will arise with the injury of Dante Exum for Burks and as a result, Gordon Hayward and Hood should shift to the point forward spots.

Lance Stephenson – LAC – (8.2/3.9/4.5)
Stephenson should be able to improve on last year’s numbers. The Clippers led the NBA last season in offensive efficiency, 109.8, and tied for 10th for possessions per game with 97.0. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin will bring the leadership to get Stephenson’s head right each night. Draft him as a bounce-back candidate if you can take on the risk.

J.R. Smith – CLE – (12.1/2.8/3.1)
Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love potentially might not be fully recovered from their prospective injuries. The result? More shots for J.R. Swish! Smith saw a revival to his career when he was acquired by the Cleveland Cavaliers last season. He averaged 39.0% on his three-point attempts on 7.3 shots per game. The three-point attempts were a 92% increase from earlier in the season with the Knicks. While Smith will have his off nights, his overall production has the potential to rival Kyle Korver’s due to the percentages from the field, perimeter and free throw line. Start Smith in the beginning of the season, but have a backup plan in place.

Eric Gordon – NOR – (13.4/3.8/2.6)
Eric Gordon has averaged 53 games per season in his NBA career. If you take out his 78-game rookie season, he has averaged 49 games. Fantasy owners can’t spend a draft pick for a player who’s averaging half an NBA season (you might be doing this if you draft Kobe Bryant). After averaging a career-high 22.3 points per game in the 2010-2011 season, Gordon’s scoring average has declined each season. Playing under offensive guru Alvin Gentry could help Gordon’s fantasy season, though.

Ben McLemore – SAC – (12.1/1.7/2.9)
Ben McLemore has reportedly spent a ton of time in the film room watching tape of other players’ tendencies to improve on the defensive side of the ball. McLemore made major strides last season and won’t have the shadow of Nik Stauskas behind him this season. New head coach George Karl, wants the team to play at a faster pace than last season and even practiced with 18-second shot clocks. While he may be the No. 3 option in the offense, the Kings’ 97.9 possessions per game will certainly rise and give McLemore chances to yield late round status.

Dion Waiters – OKC – (11.8/2.0/2.4)
Dion Waiters will be playing under his fourth head coach in his fourth season. His points and overall shots per game will decline due to the return of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. His three-point attempts are expected to rise, however. Durant and Ibaka are right handed players who like to work primarily on the left side of the court to use their bodies as protection when posting up. They could kick out to the weak side where Waiters hoists up 45.5% of his threes compared to 41.9% on the left side of the court.

Nik Stauskas – PHI – (4.4/0.9/1.2)
The Nik Stauskas hype train has been full go this offseason. The 76ers will enter the season needing some new playmakers as Michael Carter-Williams is now with the Bucks, Tony Wroten is coming off an ACL injury and Jahlil Okafor will command double teams right off the bat. The 76ers were ranked 29th in the league in three-point percentage last season and could lean on Stauskas to improve on those numbers.

Avery Bradley – BOS – (13.9/1.8/3.1)
Avery Bradley posted some decent numbers last season but remains a defense-first guard. But the Celtics boast a ton of guards on the roster and playing time could be hard to come by. Bradley has posted a respectful scoring average the last two seasons with 14.4 points and has vowed to take more threes this season as he believes “long two point shots don’t make sense.” If he does live up to his word, and executes, Bradley can offer late round upside, but I would let someone else draft him.

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Danny Stokes is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Check out his archive and follow him @LegionReportNBA.

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