Todd Frazier’s brutal second-half slump last year put a damper on his 2016 outlook
There is a stellar field of third basemen available this year but a few have the potential not to live up to preseason expectations.
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Todd Frazier- White Sox
Overall ADP: #43
Todd Frazier hit a career-high 35 home runs in 2015 and was an All-Star for the second straight year. After the break he slumped to a .220 AVG and .664 OPS. That is not the production you want from a guy the our ECR™ ranks as a top-40 player.
He struggled on the base paths last year, being caught eight times in 21 attempts, so the projection of 14 stolen bases looks high. Worryingly for someone about to call Chicago his home, the 29-year-old had a discrepancy of 150 points between his .883 OPS at the Great American Ball Park and .733 OPS away from Cincinnati. There is no suggestion that Frazier will collapse in Adam LaRoche or Adam Dunn style with a move to U.S. Cellular Field, but the red flags should make you reconsider drafting Frazier too early.
Anthony Rendon – Nationals
Overall ADP: #78
Following his breakout season in 2014, Anthony Rendon was in the discussion as a potential first-round pick. He was limited to just 80 games last year due MCL, oblique and quad strains. If staying healthy is a skill then it is one that the 25-year-old is yet to develop.
When he was on the field, his production was disappointing, just five home runs, one stolen base and a .264 batting average. There is still fantastic upside, and Rendon’s 20/20 potential is indisputable but 10 home runs and two stolen bases would be a very disappointing return for an early-round pick. Currently our ECR™ has Rendon just outside the top 100, which makes his value appealing if you can wait that long.
David Wright – Mets
Overall ADP: #204
In 2014, David Wright was plagued by a shoulder injury that resulted in the worst season of his career. 2015 started with a hamstring injury followed by lumbar spinal stenosis caused by degenerative changes to his spine. In limited action last season, he was valuable with five home runs, two stolen bases and a .814 OPS in 38 games.
Our ECR™ looks very generous, ranking the 33-year-old some 40 spots before his ADP and ahead of more reliable third base stalwarts such as Mike Moustakas, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe and Justin Turner. Last month, manager Terry Collins hinted the Mets may keep Wright on a 135-game schedule. That sounds very optimistic given the severity of his condition, so perhaps Wright is best suited to daily formats at this stage of his career.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
