Will DeMarco Murray receive much more work under new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson?

Recency bias and the fear of the unknown are landmines many of us simply cannot avoid. Prior to the start of the 2015 season, the Philadelphia Eagles and their skill players were some of the most desired players in fantasy.

It wasn’t that people were reaching for the Eagles’ players. People believed that many of them offered immense upside for where they were being drafted.

Fast-forward five months and there is an entirely new regime in the “City of Brotherly Love.” Enter Doug Pederson and his new staff of coaches. Now they have to address the elephant in the room.

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Quarterback

Tom Condon will be negotiating a new contract for free agent quarterback Sam Bradford. Condon is the notorious super agent for both Peyton Manning and Eli Manning. With several teams needing a quarterback, a bidding war could conceivably begin.

Whether or not Jeffrey Lurie ponies up the cash to retain Bradford’s services will be a story to follow this offseason. If the Eagles balk at Condon’s demands, they’re going to need to address the position via free agency or the draft. After all, is there any realistic possibility that Mark Sanchez would be the starting quarterback the first week of the 2016 season?

Frank Reich, the offensive coordinator for the San Diego Chargers the past two seasons, was named the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. In the three years Reich spent in San Diego – his first year was as the quarterbacks coach – Philip Rivers completed 67.3% of his passes and had a 97.4 quarterback rating.

Prior to last season, Bradford had a 58.6% career completion percentage. Last season Bradford had a gaudy (by his standards) 65.0% completion percentage.

The question is whether Pat Shurmur helped the process, particularly because of his prior history coaching Bradford. The other question is whether a player like Bradford fits in with what Pederson wants to run offensively.

The Eagles finished the 2015 season with the lowest time of possession average in over 12 years, yet they had the second-most offensive plays run. That’s not likely to happen again with Pederson at the helm. While that could mean fewer offensive snaps for the offense, hopefully they result in more points.

Running Back

An increase in productivity from the running game could certainly be a spark that would lead to more points for the Eagles. There is no lack of talent in the Eagles’ backfield. Pederson revealed at his introductory press conference that he was involved in calling offensive plays in the second half for the Chiefs since their victory against Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs ran a balanced offense in the second half of those games with 125 running plays and 131 passing plays. Offensive balance is something Eagles fans pleaded for during Andy Reid’s tenure.

The Chiefs had the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL. Despite DeMarco Murray’s struggles, the Eagles were 14th in rushing yards. Football Outsiders ranked the Chiefs’ offensive line in the top 11 in nearly every statistical category.

Football Outsiders also ranked the Eagles first in the NFL in their “power success” in the running game. If Pederson and Jeff Stoutland can make some magic with the Eagles’ offensive line, Murray can get back into fantasy owners’ good graces. While last season was taxing for Murray and his fantasy owners, it was surprisingly gentle on his legs.

With fewer than 200 carries for the first time in two seasons, Murray could come back with fresh legs next season. Murray will likely slip down into the fourth, fifth or sixth round. Recency bias is a dangerous thing in the fantasy community.

The other running backs will be intriguing to watch during the offseason. How can Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Kenjon Barner be used? All three are under contract through next season, but Sproles could be a salary cap casualty.

If I were going to take a flier on an Eagles’ running back at this current juncture, I’d go with Barner for his upside in the passing game and the belief that Sproles won’t be on the roster. Three different running backs for the Chiefs had 17 or more receptions. The Eagles had 128 receptions from running backs in the 2015 season. The Eagles’ running backs could present nice upside in PPR leagues for an affordable price.

Wide Receiver

When it comes to the fantasy disappointments of 2015, Jordan Matthews is in a special class of his own. Drafted in the third to fourth round last season, Matthews struggled with inconsistency and drops early in the season. A majority of fantasy teams that drafted Matthews likely did not reap the rewards of the final three weeks of the season.

Matthews recorded 21 receptions for 317 yards and four touchdowns during that time. While Bradford’s presence on the roster is in flux, Matthews will enter his third season on quite a good note.

Rookie Nelson Agholor was hardly a factor during the season despite his high number of offensive snaps. He never had more than three receptions in a game nor did he have more than 65 receiving yards in a game. Riley Cooper finished the season with more receiving yards and touchdowns than the rookie out of USC.

I know that there is a propensity to label Agholor as a bust. There’s certainly precedent involving a player drafted during the Chip Kelly era receiving criticism.

However, Agholor received a good amount of praise leading up to the draft. It’s my hope that a dysfunctional offense led to his struggles more than a perceived lack of talent.

Tight End

Zach Ertz was a contrarian play at tight end entering the draft season. But unlike Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert, Ertz likely didn’t propel a lot of teams to the championship. The reason is because, just like Matthews, Ertz suffered from inconsistencies early in the season.

And just like his wide receiver counterpart, he exploded at the end of the season. Ertz caught 35 passes for 450 yards and a touchdown in the Eagles’ final four games. Pederson and Reich both have experience with some good tight ends. With teammate Brent Celek a pending free agent, 2016 might be the year that Ertz enters the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.

Defense

Next season, prepare for a potential top-five defense. Jim Schwartz was named the Eagles’ defensive coordinator. And if you have any familiarity with what Schwartz has done as a defensive coordinator, you are aware of the statistical success they’ve all attained.

Now just imagine the intricacies he’ll come up with utilizing the talent along the Eagles’ defensive line, in particular, Fletcher Cox. If you owned the Eagles’ defense in fantasy over the past two seasons, you might have been the recipient of a few touchdowns.

Pederson said in his introductory press conference that he was retaining special teams coach Dave Fipp. The Eagles have had four punt return touchdowns the past two seasons. They also have accumulated 974 punt return yards in that time, which is first in the NFL.

Last season there was value with Bradford and Ertz, there was potential top-five value in Murray and Matthews was on the verge of being the next star receiver. Fast forward to the present and the upside remains at an even further discounted cost.

The Chiefs’ took advantage of great field position created by their defense and were a top-nine scoring team in the NFL. The Eagles have the talent to replicate that success, both offensively and defensively.

Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @Mgiraldi.