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Fantasy Baseball: Billy Hamilton vs. Ben Revere

Fantasy Baseball: Billy Hamilton vs. Ben Revere
Billy Hamilton

Billy Hamilton’s speed has enamored many fantasy owners, but is he worth his ADP?

SCFE-LogoPatrick Wallace discusses the outlook for Billy Hamilton versus that of Ben Revere.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Patrick head to So Called Fantasy Experts.

It would appear, from looking at Average Draft Position (ADP), specifically on NFBC, this is not even a debate. Well, I agree, it’s not a debate. Ben Revere should be drafted higher.

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Despite Hamilton’s second-half injuries in 2015, most fantasy owners still see him providing seventh-round value in 12-team leagues, while Revere often falls outside the top 100 picks. Quite frankly, it’s a little disappointing.

I understand the “aww” that Hamilton’s speed upside provides. However, how do we continue to discount and excuse his batting average? How do we discount the fact that Hamilton was moved down to the bottom of the Reds’ lineup towards the end of 2015? How do we not look at Jose Peraza as the potential long-term leadoff man in Cincinnati, permanently moving Hamilton down in the order?

For a minute, let’s put the “potential” aside, or in Hamilton’s case, the unwarranted hope, and actually look at how these two speedsters impact a fantasy baseball roster.

I looked at the NFBC Online Championship standings from 2015. The Championship is an accumulation of multiple leagues, but each league is made up of 12 teams, with each team starting 14 hitters. The top three teams overall in stolen bases finished with 249, 233 and 222 stolen bases as a team respectively. Meanwhile, the batting average leaders finished with a team batting average of .287, .285 and .284.

While stolen bases are an easy stat to count up when drafting, batting average takes a little more work, which is where Revere’s value seems to be lost in translation.

For simplicity sake, let’s assume each team totals approximately 7,000 at-bats as a team for the whole season (14 starting hitters, averaging 500 at-bats each on the season). Therefore, in order for a team to reach a team batting average of .287, they would need to accumulate over 2,000 hits.

Over the past two seasons (when Hamilton became a Major League regular), Revere has totaled 601 and 592 at-bats, with 184 and 181 hits respectively. Hamilton, meanwhile, has totaled 563 and 412 at-bats with 141 hits and 93 hits. If you disregard the injury and extrapolate his 2015 to a full 563 at-bats as well, that amounts to 128 hits.

That difference in 45 hits (averaging the two different seasons) results in a team average falling from .287 to .280. Granted, that still seems high in total. However, if we take it one step further and look at a more normal team batting average total of .280 which ranked anywhere from 16th to 23rd overall in the NFBC standings, we see a much steeper decline. Hamilton’s 45 fewer hits drops a team average from .280 to .274. That compared with the NFBC Online Championship standings, instead of ranking in the top 20, a team falls into the 190s.

While I realize this is just one category, when talking about three-category players, or a potential one-category player in Hamilton’s case, the negative impact nearly counteracts the positive.

So, which Hamilton can we expect? The .250 hitter from 2014, or the .226 line from last season.

A lot of fantasy baseball experts hold out hope that Hamilton can improve his average and stolen base totals if he can begin to hit the ball on the ground.

On the plus side, Hamilton did bat 18 points higher in the second half when he played, which could have been a result of him improving his groundball percentage from 39 to 49 percent. Unfortunately, the 18 points higher still resulted in a .238 batting average.

While it is a nice theory, and would probably increase his average somewhat, Hamilton hit just .233 on 133 grounders last season. Yes he has blazing speed, and yes he can beat out some ground balls that for other hitters result in a traditional 6-3 groundout. However, this is not the minor leagues. Shortstops and third basemen in the Major Leagues are better, quicker, stronger… and smarter. They understand his speed, and have the ability to make the difficult play. The infield single in Double-A is a 6-3 groundout in Cincinnati, even for Hamilton.

Perhaps the drop in BABIP from .304 in 2014 to .264 in 2015 could mean Hamilton simply had bad luck. Then again, it’s well known that Hamilton doesn’t hit the ball with much punch, so a high BABIP would be difficult to expect anyway.

Those numbers aside, no one’s making the argument for Hamilton positively impacting a team’s batting average, but more so hoping he doesn’t kill it. Instead, let’s look at his strengths; speed.

One perk to Hamilton is his efficiency on the base paths, and I can’t deny that. He was successful on 57 of his 65 stolen base attempts last season after being caught 23 times in 2014. In addition, with a full 2016, 70 stolen bases seems very achievable, something that most certainly can’t be said for Revere. In fact, Revere’s career high is 49 (set in 2014). Although 49 may be a stretch after only totaling 31 last season, his low total directly correlates to his trade to Toronto.

Washington allowed Denard Span to steal 31 bases in 2014, so they are not afraid to run in front of Bryce Harper, and Revere certainly has more speed than Span. A return to 40-plus stolen bases in 2016 seems very plausible.

It simply comes down to risk versus reward. With Revere, there’s really no risk. He’s a near lock to hit leadoff in Washington, in front of a far more potent lineup, and tally 180 hits. While his stolen bases have fluctuated, it’s not like they will disappear. As for Hamilton, the Reds’ lineup will likely only get worse as the season progresses, and his spot at the top of the lineup is by no means locked up (especially if Peraza makes the team).

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While he could certainly hit .250 and swipe over 75 bases this season, that’s about it. It would be truly remarkable if he actually provided a respectable batting average, and much less shocking if he were moved to the bottom half of the Reds’ lineup, returned a batting average south of .240 and failed to capitalize on his stolen base upside.

Risks win championships, but I would much rather take a risk as great as Hamilton outside the first seven rounds.

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