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2013’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Experts

Dec 27, 2013

Drum roll, please? After analyzing 16 weeks of expert player rankings, we’re officially ready to reveal who gave the most accurate advice in 2013. In total, over 4 million predictions were tracked from 100+ fantasy pundits this season.

We’ve seen the good (experts pushing Josh Gordon & Knowshon Moreno early), the bad (Ray Rice & C.J. Spiller over-valuations) and the ugly (any reference to the words “start” and “Trent Richardson”). Through it all, we’re comfortable in saying that our accuracy methodology captured the experts’ opinions on just about all relevant start/sit questions fantasy owners encountered.

Without further ado, below are this season’s top 10 fantasy experts. You can view the full standings over in our accuracy section along with our multi-year accuracy results.

Overall Accuracy Standings

 Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert  PAY™
 1.  Jordan Tozzi – Legion Report  61.1%
 2.  Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus  60.8%
 3.  Sablich Brothers – The New York Times  60.6%
 4.  Jake Ciely – RotoExperts  60.6%
 5.  Mike Tagliere – Tags Fantasy Football  60.4%
 6.  Kyle Wachtel – FootballGuys  60.2%
 7.  Patrick Daugherty – Rotoworld  60.2%
 8.  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus  60.1%
 9.  David Dodds – FootballGuys  60.0%
 10.  Site Rankings – Bloomberg Sports  59.9%

*See how all 124 experts rank for the season

Notes:

Accuracy Winners by Year

Champions Lounge: Tozzi joins a group of 4 other experts that have won in-season Accuracy Titles.

  • Congratulations to Jordan Tozzi (Legion Report) for capturing the Most Accurate Expert title in 2013. This is our 5th season running the competition and Tozzi beat out the largest field of experts (124) we’ve had yet. In fact, as a first time entrant, Tozzi took the competition by storm. He held the number one spot in the standings from weeks 7 through 16. Tozzi’s first place run lasted so long that the Carolina Panthers had a losing record the last time he wasn’t #1 in the standings. As part of his weekly consistency, Tozzi provided particularly strong advice at a few of the most important positions for fantasy owners. He was the only expert to rank in the top 2 for more than 1 of the main positions monitored (QB/RB/WR/TE). That includes a #1 rating at WR and a #2 ranking for his RB predictions. The well-rounded advice earned Tozzi a deserved accuracy title.
  • A key takeaway from the competition (which we’ve mentioned before) is that more than luck goes into providing quality fantasy advice. Consider the following:
      • 4 of the experts who placed in the top 10 last season ALSO cracked the top 10 this year.
      • For the 2nd year in a row, Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus) finished as the runner-up after a late-season run when his advice counted most (fantasy playoffs).
      • The Sablich Brothers (The New York Times) have entered the competition 3 times and placed in the top 5 on each occasion. No other expert has a better 3-year run going right now.
      • Speaking of consistency, we’ve now run 8 total accuracy competitions (Draft & In-Season) over the past 5 years. David Dodds (Football Guys) has finished in the top ten a record 7 times in those 8 contests. The next highest top ten finish total is 4 (John Paulsen, 4for4.com).
  • Not to be overlooked by the bullets above is that Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) is the Most Accurate IDP Expert for the 2nd year in a row. For those keeping track at home, this is the 3rd year in a row that a Pro Football Focus expert has been the IDP champ. That’s pretty impressive, especially considering that we’ve only tracked IDP accuracy for 3 seasons! Full IDP results are available here.
  • Lastly, in case you missed it, we also ran a season-long competition (hosted by DraftStreet) to locate the most accurate daily fantasy expert. Over 50 experts competed by submitting optimal lineups (within a salary cap) for 16 weeks. Congratulations go to Dan Gaspar (Fantasy Insider) for taking down the competition to win our inaugural contest. Be sure to give Dan a follow on Twitter (@MrTuttle05) if you have any daily lineup questions throughout the rest of the season.

Top Experts by Position

In addition to the overall results listed above, we also want to briefly highlight the top rated experts by position. Kudos to the following experts for nailing down the best accuracy scores:

Highest Rated Experts by Position
 Position  Expert   PAY™
 QB  Christopher Harris – ESPN  60.7%
 RB  Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus  63.2%
 WR  Jordan Tozzi – Legion Report  60.8%
 TE  Sablich Brothers – The New York Times  66.0%
 K  Jeff Paur – RTSports  58.2%
 DST  Adrian Pereira – eDraft  63.3%
 IDP  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus  56.0%

That’ll officially do it for 2013’s accuracy contest. Congrats again to Jordan Tozzi (Legion Report) for earning Most Accurate Expert honors. Kudos also to the entire field of experts for sharing their advice and for helping owners everywhere this season.

Thanks to everyone who followed the competition throughout the season. We appreciate your support and look forward to running the accuracy contest again next year.

Accuracy, Featured