2013’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Experts
Drum roll, please? After analyzing 16 weeks of expert player rankings, we’re officially ready to reveal who gave the most accurate advice in 2013. In total, over 4 million predictions were tracked from 100+ fantasy pundits this season.
We’ve seen the good (experts pushing Josh Gordon & Knowshon Moreno early), the bad (Ray Rice & C.J. Spiller over-valuations) and the ugly (any reference to the words “start” and “Trent Richardson”). Through it all, we’re comfortable in saying that our accuracy methodology captured the experts’ opinions on just about all relevant start/sit questions fantasy owners encountered.
Overall Accuracy Standings
|Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*|
|1.||Jordan Tozzi – Legion Report||61.1%|
|2.||Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus||60.8%|
|3.||Sablich Brothers – The New York Times||60.6%|
|4.||Jake Ciely – RotoExperts||60.6%|
|5.||Mike Tagliere – Tags Fantasy Football||60.4%|
|6.||Kyle Wachtel – FootballGuys||60.2%|
|7.||Patrick Daugherty – Rotoworld||60.2%|
|8.||Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus||60.1%|
|9.||David Dodds – FootballGuys||60.0%|
|10.||Site Rankings – Bloomberg Sports||59.9%|
- Congratulations to Jordan Tozzi (Legion Report) for capturing the Most Accurate Expert title in 2013. This is our 5th season running the competition and Tozzi beat out the largest field of experts (124) we’ve had yet. In fact, as a first time entrant, Tozzi took the competition by storm. He held the number one spot in the standings from weeks 7 through 16. Tozzi’s first place run lasted so long that the Carolina Panthers had a losing record the last time he wasn’t #1 in the standings. As part of his weekly consistency, Tozzi provided particularly strong advice at a few of the most important positions for fantasy owners. He was the only expert to rank in the top 2 for more than 1 of the main positions monitored (QB/RB/WR/TE). That includes a #1 rating at WR and a #2 ranking for his RB predictions. The well-rounded advice earned Tozzi a deserved accuracy title.
- A key takeaway from the competition (which we’ve mentioned before) is that more than luck goes into providing quality fantasy advice. Consider the following:
- 4 of the experts who placed in the top 10 last season ALSO cracked the top 10 this year.
- For the 2nd year in a row, Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus) finished as the runner-up after a late-season run when his advice counted most (fantasy playoffs).
- The Sablich Brothers (The New York Times) have entered the competition 3 times and placed in the top 5 on each occasion. No other expert has a better 3-year run going right now.
- Speaking of consistency, we’ve now run 8 total accuracy competitions (Draft & In-Season) over the past 5 years. David Dodds (Football Guys) has finished in the top ten a record 7 times in those 8 contests. The next highest top ten finish total is 4 (John Paulsen, 4for4.com).
- Not to be overlooked by the bullets above is that Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) is the Most Accurate IDP Expert for the 2nd year in a row. For those keeping track at home, this is the 3rd year in a row that a Pro Football Focus expert has been the IDP champ. That’s pretty impressive, especially considering that we’ve only tracked IDP accuracy for 3 seasons! Full IDP results are available here.
- Lastly, in case you missed it, we also ran a season-long competition (hosted by DraftStreet) to locate the most accurate daily fantasy expert. Over 50 experts competed by submitting optimal lineups (within a salary cap) for 16 weeks. Congratulations go to Dan Gaspar (Fantasy Insider) for taking down the competition to win our inaugural contest. Be sure to give Dan a follow on Twitter (@MrTuttle05) if you have any daily lineup questions throughout the rest of the season.
Top Experts by Position
In addition to the overall results listed above, we also want to briefly highlight the top rated experts by position. Kudos to the following experts for nailing down the best accuracy scores:
|Highest Rated Experts by Position|
|QB||Christopher Harris – ESPN||60.7%|
|RB||Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus||63.2%|
|WR||Jordan Tozzi – Legion Report||60.8%|
|TE||Sablich Brothers – The New York Times||66.0%|
|K||Jeff Paur – RTSports||58.2%|
|DST||Adrian Pereira – eDraft||63.3%|
|IDP||Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus||56.0%|
That’ll officially do it for 2013’s accuracy contest. Congrats again to Jordan Tozzi (Legion Report) for earning Most Accurate Expert honors. Kudos also to the entire field of experts for sharing their advice and for helping owners everywhere this season.
Thanks to everyone who followed the competition throughout the season. We appreciate your support and look forward to running the accuracy contest again next year.