In the first Players on the Move we took a closer look at the NL West. We examined which newly acquired players will benefit from a change of scenery, and which will suffer because of it. This week we set our sails for the NL Central, which looks like it could be one of the toughest divisions in baseball from top to bottom this season. The Cubs reinforcements are beginning to arrive in the form of young prospects Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler. The Pirates, led by Andrew McCutchen, have made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons but are looking to claim the division crown. The Brewers are hoping to improve on an 82-win season from a year ago. The Reds are hoping to bounce back from a terrible offensive 2014, where they finished 28th in runs scored. Last but not least, the Cardinals plan on continuing their dominance over the division for another year. So without further hesitation let’s look at some old faces in new places.
Chicago Cubs
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Dexter Fowler, CF
Fowler came into last season with the Astros boasting a .775 OPS or better in his previous three campaigns playing in the high altitudes of the Rocky Mountains. Most experts around the league expected Fowler’s production to drop off, and it did, slightly. Fowler hit .276/.395/.399 last season for an OPS of .774, which is lower than he had hit in previous seasons, but not by much. His defense and speed seem to be fading, as illustrated by his declining fielding numbers and his decrease in stolen base attempts, but his bat seems to working fine. The one major gripe about Fowler from anyone who has followed him is his inability to play an entire season. Fowler has played only 235 games in the past two seasons combined, and a guy playing a premier spot like center field just cannot miss that much time. He will turn 29 in March, and it would surprise me if he didn’t make the move to either of the corner outfield spots in the next year or two. He has been fortunate enough to play his entire career in hitter-friendly parks, and Wrigley is no exception. The home of the Cubs was second only behind Coors Field in runs scored in 2013 and 2014 combined, per RotoGrinders. Fowler’s ADP is 301.8, trailing players like Ryan Rua and Nick Markakis in that category. Fowler’s health is certainly a risk here, but his numbers should see a boost this season, especially leading off for a team playing half its games at Wrigley and with plenty of young talent in the lineup.
Miguel Montero, C
Montero comes over to the Cubs after nine seasons playing at Chase Field in Arizona. His numbers have decreased considerably over the past two years, in his age 30 and 31 seasons, which is a common trend among catchers and other players alike. Montero’s OPS went from an impressive .829 in 2012 to a below-average .662 in 2013. He rebounded a bit in 2014, posting a .699 OPS with much improved strikeout numbers, but he still lacked the pop that once made him one of the most feared offensive catchers in the game. His lack of slugging power could be attributed to a few things. As I addressed earlier, he is getting to an age where the wear-and-tear a catcher takes during the course of a season starts to really catch up with them. Also, Chase Field is not the most hitter-friendly park in the majors, certainly not as friendly as his new home will be. Montero’s numbers should see a slight bump in production in 2015, especially with Chicago’s youngsters now in the lineup. He is being taken at the right time in most drafts, although if it comes down between Montero and Yasmani Grandal, I might have to flip a coin. A change of scenery and escaping the toxic atmosphere in Arizona is exactly what Montero needs to get his career back on track.
Jon Lester, SP
The Cubs sent waves through the league early on in the offseason by agreeing to a massive six-year $155 million deal with Lester that the club hopes will supply them with their ace while they chase a World Series title. Lester had a terrific season last year spent between both Oakland and Boston where he boasted a 2.46 ERA and a 4.6/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in nearly 220 innings. But that was with half of his starts coming in O.Co Colliseum and Fenway Park, two fields that notoriously limit homeruns and are much more favorable towards pitchers. His ERA at home last season was a sparkling 1.95, but on the road it rose to a 3.07. Not terrible, but not nearly as impressive as his home numbers. Wrigley Field is a pitcher’s nightmare, especially a pitcher like Lester that is known for giving up the long ball. Expect Lester to come back down to Earth a bit this season and put up stats more resembling his 2013 campaign than 2014, but he will still be effective and valuable as the season goes on. I like where he is being valued right now as far as pitchers are concerned. He is still behind the elite guys like Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and even Yu Darvish, but he should go ahead of Cole Hamels, Matt Harvey and former Cub Jeff Samardzija. He is as durable as starting pitchers come, only throwing under 200 innings once since 2007 (191.2 in 2011), but will it be enough for Chicago to contend this season?
Cincinnati Reds
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Marlon Byrd, RF
Cincinnati desperately needed to add another outfield bat after their lackluster offensive performance in 2014, which led to a trade with the Phillies to bring in Byrd, the 37-year-old corner outfielder that struck out 185 times last season. Byrd played excellent for the Mets and Pirates in 2013, cranking 24 home runs and posting a solid .847 OPS while limiting his strikeouts. In 2014 Byrd continued to show his power, smashing another 25 home runs, but struggled in August and September as the season and his age started to catch up with him. Great American Park in Cincinnati and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia are No. 1 and No. 2 respectively among parks in home run production, so owners should expect another 20-plus dingers from Byrd again this season, but that is about it. Expect his OPS to drop, especially if he cannot get his strikeouts under control. Byrd should come on the cheap, and owners should grab him if they are looking for some power in later rounds, but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic about his 2015 campaign, even with the move to hitter-friendly Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Francisco Cervelli, C
Russell Martin had an impressive .832 OPS last season as the catcher of the Pirates, but he has moved on to Toronto, and the Bucs are left with oft-injured former Yankee Francisco Cervelli to replace him. Cervelli has looked good when he has been healthy, but that isn’t often. He has only topped 90 games in a season once in his big league career, and that was back in 2010 when he posted a below average .694 OPS for the Yanks. But reports from camp are that Cervelli looks good, and is set to take over the everyday catching duties for Clint Hurdle’s team. He was very popular on the Yankees, and many fans were upset to see the energetic catcher leave town. Last season in 49 games for New York, Cervelli hit .301/.370/.432 while battling various injuries. If he cannot stay on the field, it won’t matter which park he hits in this season, but even if Cervelli can stay behind the plate for extended time, he might be disappointed by his production. PNC Park in Pittsburgh is as tough as they come for hitters, and it comes in second only to Marlins Park in limiting players’ home runs. Owners shouldn’t expect too much from him, but if you are looking for a backup catcher in a deeper league, Cervelli might be your guy. He is being drafted below catchers like Kurt Suzuki and Rene Rivera, and he certainly has more upside than them.
Milwaukee Brewers
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Adam Lind, 1B/DH
Lind comes over to the Brewers after nine big league seasons with Toronto. He posted back-to-back .850-plus OPS seasons in 2013 and 2014, but there is little reason to think that Lind can produce similarly in 2015. He played in only 96 games a year ago while dealing with back and foot injuries, and while he did put up solid numbers when healthy, he is expected to assume somewhat of a platoon role with the Brewers due to his lack of ability to hit lefties. Lind’s numbers against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons are troubling to say the least. During that span he is batting .183/.232/.280 against lefties and .314/.380/.515 against righties. Lind should expect to be in the lineup for most games, but fantasy owners need to be aware of his limited potential. If he were guaranteed to play every day, Lind would be a valuable late-round pick up with some power, but with no guarantee of how many at-bats he is expected to get this year, owners should be wary of drafting him. Milwaukee’s Miller Park is fairly hitter-friendly, especially when it comes to home runs, but it is nothing compared to Lind’s former home, the Rogers Centre in Toronto, which saw more home runs than Coors Field in 2013 and 2014.
St. Louis Cardinals
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Jason Heyward, RF
Heyward comes over after a blockbuster deal with the Braves, which was part of a huge offseason overhaul for Atlanta. Heyward did not fit into the Braves’ long-term plans, and he was then made available. After the tragic accident that took young phenom Oscar Taveras’ life, St. Louis was in need of another outfield bat, and Heyward fit the bill. The 25-year-old Heyward was regarded as one of the best prospects in all of baseball a few seasons ago, but his time so far in the majors has been viewed as somewhat disappointing. He had a terrific 2012 campaign in which he batted .269/.335/.479 and slugged 27 home runs for the Braves. He was just 23 years old, and he seemed destined to be a force at the plate and in the field for years to come. Then 2013 happened. Heyward missed a bunch of time due to an appendectomy and broken jaw suffered from taking a pitch to the face in a game against the Mets. He managed to post a .776 OPS that season, but it was considered a down year for the expected star and some worried what the jaw injury would do to him in the future. Heyward’s numbers from 2014 don’t look great at first glance: .271/.351/.384 with 11 homeruns and 58 RBI. But when you dig a little deeper you will find that Heyward posted the best BB/K rate since his rookie season, and had an 83 percent stolen base success rate while stealing 20 bags. The only thing truly missing from his amazing all-around game last season was his power, but the move to Busch Stadium in St. Louis isn’t likely to help with that. Busch is actually more unfriendly on hitters than Turner Field is, especially when it comes to home runs. I do believe that Heyward will improve on his numbers across the board, but it won’t be because of the stadium. Heyward has too much talent and too much riding on this next contract (he becomes a free agent in 2016) to not play at an All-Star level. Heyward’s ADP is 81.5, behind players like Yoenis Cespedes, George Springer and Matt Kemp. Heyward is still a very skilled runner, and being on a team with an improved offense will enable him to add RBI and runs to his totals. I think Heyward hits around 20 home runs, 85 RBI, 20 stolen bases and an OPS around .825 when it’s all said and done this season.
Jordan Walden, RP
Walden came over with Heyward trade, and he is in line to be the setup man for Trevor Rosenthal this season. Walden has looked impressive for both the Angels and the Braves during his short career, but once again the issue comes down to health. Walden has only pitched more than 60 innings once in his career, and that was all the way back in 2011 with the Angels. The Ft. Worth native did boast an impressive 2.88 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP across 50 innings last season in Atlanta. Busch is slightly more pitcher-friendly than Turner is, so the move could be a positive one for Walden. Walden’s numbers were slightly more impressive than Rosenthal’s last season, but he threw about 20 fewer innings. Walden’s ADP is 456, but I believe he should outperform his projections for this season, and he should prove to be a very solid fantasy reliever if he can stay off the DL.
11 Players on the Move: NL West
Andrew Chambers is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @beardedsports8.