Ryan Kirksey | Sat, Feb 14th 2026, 7:39am EST

4 MLB Spring Training Risers & Fallers (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

Spring Training is finally here, and with it comes a whole series of news items, injury updates, position battles, and roster positioning. As Major League Baseball teams are preparing to finalize their teams, fantasy baseball managers are looking to finalize their draft boards ahead of fantasy baseball drafts in the weeks ahead. Based on the limited information we have, early drafters are already taking stands on where players should be taken based on their performances from 2025 and expectations for 2026. Which players are already rising and falling in drafts based on early results before we even see any spring action?

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers

Here are a few fantasy baseball risers and fallers based on average draft position (ADP) as Spring Training opens, compared to what we saw from players and their performances from the 2025 season.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Jackson Merrill (OF – SD) | 61.2 ADP

In 2024, Jackson Merrill finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting and led rookies in hits, batting average, and RBI. He also chipped in 16 stolen bases and won a Silver Slugger award. By the time 2025 rolled around, he was being drafted in the first three rounds, even though he was just 21 years old when the season started. However, before the season even began, Merrill began dealing with injuries. He missed 47 games in 2025 with hamstring, ankle, illness, and concussion problems. His batting average dropped from .292 to .264, his home runs fell from 24 to 16, and his steals plummeted to just one all season.

Underneath the hood, however, there were encouraging signs that point to a rebound in 2026. His hard-hit was largely unchanged last season, and his barrel rate actually improved. Merrill’s walk rate improved, and he showed more plate discipline despite the injuries. Now coming with a discount in drafts (ADP of 61.2 across all fantasy sites), Merrill is a bargain who has age, upside, skills, and lineup protection all on his side that could foreshadow a big year in 2026. Based on how he finished 2025, drafters are already realizing the bargain, and the price is likely to rise over the next month.

Austin Riley (3B – ATL) | 66.8 ADP

The big question surrounding Austin Riley in 2026 is, can he stay healthy? Production has never been the problem with Riley, but staying on the field the last two seasons has been his weakness. Riley played in at least 159 games for three straight seasons before 2024. He had at least 30 home runs, 90 runs, and 90 RBI in those three years as well, but the injury bug hit in 2024, and he has played 110 games and 102 games over the last two seasons. He has not reached 20 home runs or 60 RBI in either of those years. Can he bounce back and produce like before since he is just 29 years old? The injury history says these might have been fluky.

In 2024, he broke a hand on a hit-by-pitch, but that has now fully healed. In 2025, he had an abdominal injury, but he had surgery in August, and all seems to be fully healed at this point of Spring. Fantasy baseball managers are taking advantage of the dip from his high ADP over the last three years and taking him outside the fifth round in 12-team leagues. If he can get back to form, he is right in his prime hitting years, and fantasy managers can expect another 30-90-90 season in the top half of the Atlanta Braves batting order.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Geraldo Perdomo (SS – ARI) | 61.4 ADP

Is Geraldo Perdomo the year’s biggest negative regression candidate? Fantasy baseball drafters seem to think so. After finishing as the 11th-best hitter in FantasyPros’ VBR metric, Perdomo is not being drafted that way and has fallen outside the fifth round in 12-team leagues. In 2025, Perdomo set career-highs in batting average, home runs, stolen bases, walk rate, strikeout rate, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Still, while his slugging percentage was .462, his expected slugging was just .424. His expected batting average and expected wOBA also saw similar drops.

All projection systems are speaking the same language this offseason for Geraldo Perdomo. They call for a drop in home runs to about 12-15, and no more than 20 steals (he had 27 in 2025). Add in a .260 batting average, and you still have a very valuable shortstop, but someone like CJ Abrams is likely to surpass all of those numbers, and he is currently being taken three picks after Perdomo, on average. There were lots of fluky things about Perdomo’s season last year (like home run per fly ball rate), so don’t pay full price for an outlier season.

Carlos Estevez (RP – KC) | 110.4 ADP

How can someone who led all of Major League Baseball with 42 saves in 2025 find themselves outside the top 100 in early ADP? Saves are such a precious commodity that someone who is capable of 40+ should be going in the earlier rounds, right? He even had a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2025. What’s not to love? Well, the 20% strikeout rate, for starters. That is very uncharacteristic for a closer, who typically will be up around 30%. His expected ERA in 2025 was all the way up to 3.69, a long way from his actual number.

Estevez gave up a lot of hard contact, didn’t generate a lot of ground balls, and generally got outs in the air during his career year. That is not a recipe for success at Kauffman Field, as the team has decided to move in the fences for 2026, which should greatly benefit opposing batters. We can probably pencil Estevez in for 20-25 saves, but it won’t come with sparkling ratios as he had in 2025. Most projection systems give Carlos Estevez an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range for 2026.

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