Recapping the Week 6 installment of Burning Questions:
| Player | Week 6 Outlook | Result |
| Josh McCown | Keep on bench; worth adding | No. 20 QB |
| Gary Barnidge | Borderline TE1 despite the tough matchup vs. DEN; pickup now | No. 3 TE. Two more TDs for Barnidge, who now has five in his past four games |
| Doug Martin | Don’t sell now | Bucs’ schedule lightens up following the Week 6 bye |
| Theo Riddick | PPR flex but monitor injury | No. 20 RB in PPR |
| Tavon Austin | Add/hold | Another bye week stash. Browns’ banged-up secondary on tap Week 7 |
NOTES: Unlike the previous week, my Week 6 forecasts were right on the money for the three guys who actually played…Gary Barnidge was started in only half of ESPN leagues in Week 6, and he was still there for the taking as a free agent in 30 percent of leagues…However, Josh McCown took a step backward as expected against Denver…Theo Riddick ran for 28 yards on a career-high seven carries, with all of those totes coming after another Ameer Abdullah fumble. Riddick once again justified his PPR value with another 50 receiving yards on six targets.
Recalling Week 4’s Burning Questions, I dissected “The Megatron Conundrum” and advised to hold onto Calvin Johnson until his next big game and then sell. Well, following his Week 6 breakout against Chicago, now is that time, which I’ll get into below…Updating my season-long outlooks back in Week 1, Keenan Allen is right on par for “Bounce-Back Player of the Year,” coming in as the No. 4 WR in fantasy, while Alfred Morris has lived up to his bust outlook as the No. 46 RB in standard leagues.
Ok, that’s enough horn tooting. On to Week 7.
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1) The Steelers’ offense will rebound, right?
Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350-plus yards in each of his first two games, and then he got hurt in Week 3. Since then, the Steelers have not been the same offensively. In fact, Pittsburgh has not cracked 350 total yards since Big Ben went down. And given the reports out of practice this week, it seems likely that third-string quarterback Landry Jones will be the one under center on Sunday when the Steelers visit Kansas City.
There remains a slim chance that Roethlisberger returns from the sprained MCL that has kept him sidelined for the past month, although Week 8 was always the more realistic return date given the four-to-six-week timetable. In any case, fantasy owners of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell should all be clamoring for anyone but Michael Vick at this point. According to Pro Football Focus, Vick has the third-worst accuracy percentage (.677) and fourth-worst QB rating since Week 3.
The trickle-down effect has been apparent for Brown, who had gone a record 35 straight regular-season games with at least five catches and 50 receiving yards. All 30 of his career touchdown catches have also come from Roethlisberger. But without Big Ben, Brown has averaged 3.7 catches and only 37 yards over his last three outings, and he has not scored in that span. Meanwhile, Bell went into Week 6 with at least 100 scrimmage yards in eight of his previous nine games. But he was held to 88 rushing yards on 24 carries against Arizona, and he was held without a catch for the first time in his career.
WEEK 7 AND BEYOND
Jones, having been with Pittsburgh for three years, is simply a better fit for Todd Haley’s offense than Vick, and the University of Oklahoma product threw for 168 yards and two scores on 8-of-12 passing against Arizona. This week, the Steelers should find success through the air against the Chiefs, who own the league’s worst pass defense. Brown will often line up across from Kansas City’s Sean Smith, and that, like most matchups, is one he can certainly exploit.
With Roethlisberger looking set to return for the second half of the season, all of the aforementioned skill position players are strong hold or buy-low candidates if the opportunity is there.
2) What should I make of the Chiefs’ backfield?
Last week, desperate Jamaal Charles’ owners were unloading their remaining FAAB balances on Chiefs’ backup Charcandrick West. After what we saw from Kansas City’s offense against Minnesota in Week 6, many of those owners are dealing with a case of buyer’s remorse. First, the good: West was the clear lead dog, out-snapping teammate Knile Davis 43-19 along with a 9-5 edge in carries. However, West managed just 33 yards with those carries, lost a fumble, and graded out with a -3.9 overall rating from PFF’s analysts.
On the season, West has now carried 21 times for 81 yards (3.9 YPC), with all of that coming over the last three weeks. Still, the opportunities are there, and that’s half the battle in fantasy football. Davis, who filled in admirably for Charles last year, produced only 13 yards on his five totes and does not appear in line for an increased role anytime soon.
Head coach Andy Reid said the decision to give West a majority of the carries is partly about giving the offensive line some consistency with the zone-run plays that are more suited for the jitterbug style of runner West and Charles are, as opposed to the one-cut, downhill power running style that Davis brings.
“The things that we’ve been doing, we feel pretty good with what Charcandrick is doing and Knile working in on some other things,” Reid said. “So we’re not down on Knile by any means. That’s not where we’re at with it. Just with some of the things we’re doing right now, Charcandrick kind of fits that.”
So there you have it, straight from the coach’s mouth. Additionally, offensive coordinator Doug Pederson said the Chiefs would not shy away from West in clutch situations because of his fourth-quarter fumble against the Vikings.
WEEK 7 AND BEYOND
Charles owners who scooped up West can do little besides plug him in and hope for the best, whereas Davis is more of a touchdown-dependent play or stash-and-see option if West fails to capitalize on his increased role. This week’s opponent, the Steelers, have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, allowing just 76.2 yards per game on the ground, so expectations should once again be tempered to flex status for West.
3) Did the light bulb just turn on for Matthew Stafford?
Just when he was left for dead, Matthew Stafford delivered a week-high, 35-point fantasy outing in which he threw for 405 yards and four TDs. This happened after totaling 30 points over his previous three games combined. Naturally, the million-dollar question is, what did we just witness here? Did the former No. 1 overall pick really just need a season plus six games to finally pick up Joe Lombardi’s offense?
Well, maybe, but probably not. For one thing, Chicago’s pass defense is next-level bad. The Bears have given up a league-high 15 touchdown passes and are second-to-last in opposing QB rating (108.6). Keep in mind, Stafford is in his seventh pro season and has bested Week 6’s fantasy output only once. That happened during the 2011 season when he threw for 5,000-plus yards and 41 TDs. Even after Week 6, he’s still on pace to come up about a thousand yards and 15 TDs short of that pace.
So, while it was expected that Stafford would take a step forward after a full year under the current Lions’ regime, I believe at this point we have to accept that he is what his numbers say he is. And that is the quarterback of a 1-5 team who has never won a playoff game and was benched two weeks ago.
In the spirit of disclosure, I drafted Stafford in a dynasty league five years ago. I held onto him ever since, only to drop him prior to that Week 6 outburst I waited too long for. Think about it – that’s 70 games he was on my roster, and last week did nothing to make me want to pick him back up. Apparently, the rest of this particular league feels the same way, as he remains available for the taking.
WEEK 7 AND BEYOND
The Vikings have yielded the fifth-fewest points to opposing fantasy QBs. They are also PFF’s third-rated pass rushing team behind Denver and Miami, and Stafford has been pressured on 96 dropbacks, fourth-most among QBs. In two starts against Mike Zimmer’s Vikings last season, Stafford averaged 169 passing yards and one touchdown per game. Yet, he is in nearly half of his owners’ starting lineups this week on ESPN.com. If other options are available, you should be part of the other half.
4) Are we taking the Chargers’ offense seriously enough?
No, we’re not. What, you wanted a big lead-in? Sorry, but after six weeks, San Diego sits atop the league in total offense (433.0 YPG) and passing offense (346.3). Where the Chargers have come up short, however, is in the scoring department (22.7 PPG) as they rank just 15th in the league. A big part of that is due to a lackluster ground game that ranks 29th in the league and has produced only two touchdowns.
But really, the only fantasy disappointment has been first-round rookie rusher Melvin Gordon, who has averaged a mere 2.8 YPC and just got benched after putting the ball on the ground for a fourth time already this season. If you own any shares in the San Diego passing game, chances are you’re in good shape, and there isn’t much evidence suggesting things will slow down.
Philip Rivers, the No. 4 fantasy QB, is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has tossed a dozen touchdowns. He has developed a Woody and Buzz-like chemistry with Keenan Allen, who ranks fourth among fantasy WRs (PPR) and is currently on pace to challenge Marvin Harrison’s single-season receptions record. Elsewhere, the average number of targets among the top-10 fantasy tight ends is 38. Ladarius Green has only 26 targets yet ranks 10th at the position. Fellow tight end Antonio Gates has played just two games, but he leads all TEs with an average of 15 fantasy points per game (although he is questionable this week). And then there is Danny Woodhead, who sits sixth among fantasy running backs in PPR formats thanks to his 333 receiving yards, tops among RBs.
WEEK 7 AND BEYOND
There may be some regression to the mean for the Chargers offense in the weeks to come, then again, they may start cashing in more often in the red zone, where they currently rank 18th. In Week 7, Allen has a desirable matchup across from Raiders’ right cornerback Neiko Thorpe. In fact, it’s the eighth-most attractive WR-CB matchup in PFF’s metrics, tied with teammate Steve Johnson against Raiders’ left CB D.J. Hayden, who has been graded as the third-worst corner this season by PFF analysts. For reasons not entirely clear, Rivers is still on the bench in one out of four ESPN leagues this week.
5) Is the Packers’ backfield truly an RBBC?
It’s pretty crazy that this is even a question, considering Lacy was the first player selected in many a fantasy draft only a couple of months ago. But, we’re entering Week 7, and Lacy ranks 38th at the position while teammate James Starks is 25th. And yes, the workload has been a virtually even split, with Lacy holding a slim 76-74 edge in touches.
Lacy (3.9 YPC) is apparently nursing an ankle injury, which could explain why he has been out-produced so badly by Starks (4.5 YPC). Coach Mike McCarthy conceded this week that Lacy is “beat up,” while he called Starks an “outstanding running back” and said he will ride the hot hand moving forward. And frankly, with the Packers sitting at 6-0 heading into their bye week, there’s no reason to force the issue with Lacy at this point.
WEEK 7 AND BEYOND
Lacy owners just have to hope he can rest up and get healthy during the bye week, as his trade value is probably about as low as it’s ever been. Call it a hunch, but I think Lacy turns it on in the second half and atones for his disappointing start. Make no mistake, Starks will still get his touches, but if we’re betting on a hot hand here, my money is not on the career backup who has never rushed for 600 yards or four scores in a season.
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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.