What can we expect from Sam Bradford and the Eagles?
Opening weekend is upon us, so let’s get right to it with Five Burning Questions for Week 1. As an added bonus in this week’s edition, we’ll touch on the season outlook for each player below along with his Week 1 fantasy forecast.
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What can we expect from the Sam Bradford-led Eagles?
When head coach Chip Kelly jumped ship from the University of Oregon to the NFL, it was widely presumed he preferred a mobile quarterback to run the read-option as he did in college, and hence the exhaustive trade rumors surrounding former pupil Marcus Mariota leading up to the draft. But the fact is, Kelly has stated repeatedly that he’ll adapt his offense to the strengths of his personnel, and that repetitive accuracy is the No. 1 skill he looks for in a quarterback. Protecting the football has also been a common Kelly refrain.
Enter Sam Bradford, the former No. 1 draft pick who led Oklahoma to a modern-era scoring record by executing the no-huddle offense (another favorite of Kelly’s) alongside DeMarco Murray, with whom he shared a dorm. If you caught highlights of the Eagles’ third preseason game against Green Bay’s starting defense, when Bradford was a perfect 10-of-10 for 121 yards and three touchdowns, then you saw exactly what Kelly had in mind when he made the controversial decision to trade away former Pro Bowler Nick Foles. An NFC scout attributed Bradford’s decision-making and mastery of tempo to the fact that all 10 of his completions were to the first read.
“I think Chip wanted a quarterback who could see what he sees,” the scout said. “I’m not sure Nick Foles was always able to do that. But Bradford can. He’s an extremely smart guy who is able to process information very quickly and get the ball out quickly and accurately.”
WEEK 1 OUTLOOK
It’s time to forego the “if he’s healthy” qualifier for Bradford and focus on a real game matchup for the first time in almost two years. First and foremost, the Eagles want to establish the run – they’ve finished fourth and seventh in rushing attempts under Kelly and just spent plenty of money to feature a shiny new multi-headed backfield. But it’s also important to keep in mind they got off more total offensive snaps than any team in football in 2014, and that leaves plenty of room for Bradford to play his point guard role and deliver those quick, accurate strikes against an Atlanta secondary that gave up the most passing yards in the NFL last year (279.9). For Week 1, expect a lot of up-tempo early as the Eagles look to quiet the crowd and keep the Falcons on their heels. For the season, I like Bradford’s chances to hoist the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Which rookie WRs can I trust?
Will this rookie class match the output of the historic 2014 class? Probably not. However, here are three players who should be start-worthy options more weeks than not. Given our current expert consensus rankings, only one rookie receiver is a recommended start this week. But if you are, say, a Le’Veon Bell owner short on quality RB depth and are looking to start a third receiver in your FLEX spot this week, you could do worse than any of these guys given the matchups.
- Amari Cooper (ECR WR16) – Raiders quarterback Derek Carr spent most of the summer gushing about his new rookie weapon. Cooper, the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft, enjoyed a productive preseason, even schooling Patrick Peterson for a 36-yard gain. You drafted him as a starter, and you’re rolling with him at home against Cincinnati.
- Nelson Agholor (WR32) Recently described by an NFC scout as better than Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles’ first-round rookie has turned heads all offseason and then scored a nifty 34-yard touchdown on his first catch as an Eagle.
- DeVante Parker (WR67) Having returned from minor foot surgery that kept him shelved for most of the preseason, Parker is back in play as a candidate to finish the year as the top rookie receiver in fantasy. He shined at OTAs and has since picked up right where he left off pre-surgery by “opening eyes” in practice, so much so that teammates are now expecting him to be a legitimate weapon Sunday against a Washington defense that allowed a league-worst 108.3 QB rating to opposing passers last season. Parker may still be on a snap count, but he’ll be on the field when the Dolphins need him in key situations. Believe the hype.
- Darkhorse: Tyler Lockett (WR66) – Lockett probably won’t get enough volume to be a consistent fantasy option off the bat, but man, he sure looks legit. Originally slated for a special teams role as a rookie, coach Pete Carroll knows it’ll be tough to keep him out of the offensive huddle.
Which rookie RBs can I trust?
Last year, Jeremy Hill was the only rookie rusher to finish among fantasy’s elite (RB10), although a handful of others had their moments. With the devaluation of the running back position in relation to the salary cap, rookie rushers have been getting thrown into the fire more and more. In the 2015 NFL Draft, we saw two running backs selected in the first 15 picks, and a total of eight off the board within the first three rounds. All were chosen with the thought of playing a prominent role sooner rather than later. The below names are all worth FLEX consideration for Week 1.
- Melvin Gordon (RB22) – The San Diego Union-Tribune expects Gordon to log between 220 and 250 carries this season, which would put him in line with DeMarco Murray’s projection range. However, Gordon is also expected to be eased into his NFL career as he learns the ropes alongside veterans Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver. So, temper expectations this week against a Lions defense that was the league’s stingiest against the run last year, albeit one without Ndamukong Suh.
- T.J. Yeldon (RB21) – Like Gordon, Yeldon carries an appealing blend of talent and opportunity for touches. Whether the Jaguars have enough talent surrounding him on offense remains to be seen, and he’ll face a stiff welcome to the NFL this week from Luke Kuechly and the Panthers.
- Ameer Abdullah (RB25) – Joique Bell has been eased back from multiple offseason lower-body surgeries and, frankly, wasn’t all that effective over the last two seasons, averaging just 3.9 yards across 389 carries. He’s also never rushed for 100 yards in a game since entering the league in 2010. On Thursday, Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said Abdullah is a true three-down back and will be used “extensively” in the passing game while also getting a chance to run the ball. It’s only a matter of time before the more talented Abdullah, who shined throughout the preseason, grab’s the lion’s share of the workload.
- Darkhorse: Matt Jones (RB46) – The sense here is this is already more of a 1A and 1B platoon in Washington, and it’s not too late to buy low on Jones, who is widely available in standard leagues. But that might not be the case this time next week. The coaching staff really likes Jones and wants to give him looks.
Who is ready to bounce back?
Coming off a nearly flawless preseason as he enters year two in Joe Lombardi’s system, I like Matthew Stafford to finish well inside the top 10 fantasy QBs this season. But with a trip out to San Diego on tap, there are safer QB plays this week.
So we’ll stay in San Diego for a Week 1 bounce-back play in Keenan Allen. The third-year pro is the 19th-ranked WR entering his opening-week matchup with the Lions. Allen entered the summer with a renewed focus following a disappointing 77-catch (in 14 games) sophomore campaign. Philip Rivers took notice, saying he believes Allen easily had his best camp in terms of consistency.
If he plays all 16 games, there’s no reason to think Allen can’t finish with 80-plus catches and eclipse his rookie season totals of 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns. Keep in mind, Antonio Gates is suspended for the first four games coming off his resurgent 12-touchdown season, meaning a few more red-zone targets will be up for grabs.
Who is headed for a bust?
Alfred Morris (RB20) – Morris carried a No. 16 preseason expert ranking among RBs, and that’s just too high for me. A former sixth-round pick out of Florida Atlantic from the previous regime, Morris broke the Redskins’ single-season rushing record and backed that up with consecutive Pro Bowl trips. But look beyond those Pro Bowl nods and you’ll find his rushing numbers have dipped across the board in each of his first three seasons. Morris has also averaged less than 70 rushing yards per game and 3.6 YPC with Kirk Cousins starting under center. Rushing stats in decline, not involved in the passing game, new regime drafts hot-charging rookie, what’s not to love?
BONUS: Any reason not to expect the Adrian Peterson of old after missing most of 2014?
No.
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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin
