Fantasy owners enter another draft season with suspension looming for Tom Brady
It was around this time last year that Deflate-gate was in the news on a daily basis. Whether it was a segment on the proper pressure of a football or who may have tampered with footballs prior to the 2015 AFC Championship game, major media outlets were reporting something new on an hourly basis. Thanks to an opinion issued today by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in New York, Tom Brady’s four-game suspension has been reinstated. While this news may seem like a bad episode of the Twilight Zone for Brady, fantasy football enthusiasts are starring in Groundhog Day. The looming question before us is whether to plan as if Brady plays 16 games in 2016 or to consider him a late-round lottery ticket should his suspension be upheld?
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If you were the owner who drafted Brady in the (insert some absurdly late round here) because your league draft was early, I am sure that the owner who drafted Jimmy Garoppolo lobbied the commissioner for your removal from the league. On the other hand, if your league drafted a little later than some, you likely shredded your draft board and cursed the heavens when Brady was reinstated because your late-round strategy was no longer an option. Regardless, Deflate-gate had a major impact on almost every fantasy football league in existence in 2015, however, it was certainly no distraction for Brady. Through 16 games, Brady completed 402 passes for 4,770 yards, 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In terms of fantasy, Brady finished 2015 as the second overall player and quarterback in standard scoring leagues with a total of 343.7 fantasy points. Not bad for a guy at the center of a major cheating scandal.
While the 2015 NFL/fantasy football season is in the rearview mirror, the 2016 season is right around the corner. If last season proved anything it is that beyond the truly elite quarterbacks, Brady included, quarterback play is as much of a gamble as betting on the Kentucky Derby. With Brady suspended, the pool of quality QB options is shallow, which may result in an earlier than expected run on quarterbacks in your draft. As such, draft strategy is going to be key to your success in 2016. When and who to draft at quarterback is going to be a frustrating conundrum. Even more perplexing is the fact that you may need to grab a backup earlier than you would like to. While I never advocate for drafting a quarterback early, this may be the year where you are stuck doing so.
Another item to consider is developing a draft strategy where Tom Brady is available for 16 games and a strategy where he only plays 12. Depending on your league makeup and scoring, Brady’s value will differ based on how many games he will be available. If Brady is suspended for the first four games, he will miss the season opener at Arizona and then three home games against Miami, Houston and Buffalo, respectively. If Brady is available for the first four games, he may have a difficult time contending with three of the four defenses he will be facing.
As you continue to prepare for your 2016 fantasy football draft, another question you will need to answer is how does the Brady suspension impact the value of Jimmy Garoppolo, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett and Dion Lewis? As we saw last season, Garoppolo was being drafted higher than usual thanks to Brady’s suspension. However, when the suspension was lifted, Garoppolo’s average draft position fell to 201. If Garoppolo were to be the day one starter due to Brady’s suspension, he will have great options in the passing game including Gronk, Edelman, a healthy Dion Lewis and Bennett. With these weapons surrounding him, Garoppolo could shoot up draft boards if Brady is suspended for all four games. However, one has to wonder how a quarterback who has career stats of 20 completions for 188 yards and one touchdown will impact each of the aforementioned players.
Although the 2015 NFL season is in the past, fantasy football fans like myself are already contemplating the impact of Brady’s four-game suspension in 2016. Despite the fact that Brady may appeal the court’s decision to the full Second Circuit court, or possibly the U.S. Supreme Court, his suspension will likely take effect before the case is heard unless an injunction is filed. Either way, today’s news will most certainly impact your fantasy football draft later this summer.
Phil Falvo is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Phil, you can check out his archive or follow him @FalvoPS01.
