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DFS Cash Game Diary: Tuesday (5/31)

DFS Cash Game Diary: Tuesday (5/31)
Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is an example of a pitcher that can provide value and safety for cash games

This article will be posted each week to document success in cash games on FanDuel so that we can try to discern what is important when constructing rosters. For this article, I am going to enter a $2 double up on FanDuel, and I will highlight each day of the week that I play and trends that I noticed. This is my fourth season playing DFS MLB and it is by far my favorite to play. The grind can get to you in the middle of the summer, but it’s key to keep a level head as DFS baseball is the most volatile fantasy sport.

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Before I break down how the final full week of May went, I want to recap the prior week:

  • Week of May 16th: $12 entries, $12 winnings, net profit: $0
  • Average Cash Line: 127.12 fantasy points
  • My Average Score: 125.52 fantasy points

I will keep a running total in this spot each week. Data Through May 29th:

  • $90 entries, $84 winnings, net profit: $-6
  • Average Cash Line: 130.72 fantasy points
  • My Average Score: 134.29 fantasy points

A bit of a disclaimer is needed for the past two weeks and the output from my gameplay, but I actually am glad that I can highlight something. I have been majorly crimped on time the past two weeks due to some health issues with my wife and my research time has been shortened quite a bit as a result. This underscores the importance of research and not just blindly playing DFS. I’m not making excuses or saying that I just threw some lineups against the wall, but I do feel it plays a big role in a player’s success.

Monday (5/23)
There were 10 games on Monday and Clayton Kershaw was on the hill, but there were enough punt options to make utilizing him rather easy. 83.8% of the field agreed and he produced 60 fantasy points against the Reds. Stephen Vogt recently was bumped up in the batting order due to Josh Reddick’s injury and he was a smart target as a result as he cost just $2,100 (scored 28.2 fantasy points). Taylor Motter was another player that I wanted to target, as his power/speed combo was worth the $2,100 price tag. Despite hitting seventh in the order, he produced 34.7 fantasy points. From there, I was still able to roster Mike Trout at $4,800, and he produced 12.2 fantasy points.

$2 double up, 568 entries
Cash line: 134.4 FanDuel Points
My score: 153.8 FanDuel Points, 84th place finish, $4 winnings
Weekly Totals: $2 entries, $4 winnings, net profit: $2
Overall Totals: $80 entries, $80 winnings, net profit: $0

Tuesday (5/24)
Stephen Strasburg faced the Mets on Tuesday, who had just lost Lucas Duda. Strasburg responded in this favorable matchup with 59 fantasy points. That was the good news, unfortunately, as the rest of my lineup failed to match my starting pitcher in total output. As a result of spending up for Strasburg ($10,600), I needed to find some value bats, which I did a horrible job of. I went back to the well with Vogt ($2,300), who scored 6.2 fantasy points. Prince Fielder continued to struggle as he ended with zero fantasy points. Ultimately, my “studs and duds” approach failed. I utilized Mike Trout again, along with Carlos Correa, and filled in the rest of my hitters with sub-$3,000 players. The mid-range plays were actually the ones that produced, highlighted by the likes of Gregory Polanco ($3,900; 44.9 fantasy points), Ben Revere ($2,800; 30.9 fantasy points), Brandon Crawford ($3,100; 32.2 fantasy points) and Daniel Murphy ($3,900; 25.2 fantasy points). Strasburg, Trout and Correa cost $19,400, while producing 74.5 fantasy points. Justin Verlander drew a good matchup against the Phillies, and he actually out-produced Strasburg (66 fantasy points), while costing just $8,500. This would have allowed me to use three of the four players that I noted earlier, while gaining a net positive of 99.5 fantasy points. I always harp on anchoring your roster with the starting pitcher and the lesson learned here is that you can still search for “safer” value, which allows you to not have to punt every hitter.

$2 double up, 568 entries
Cash line: 137.4 FanDuel Points
My score: 115.9 FanDuel Points, 427th place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $4 entries, $4 winnings, net profit: $0
Overall Totals: $82 entries, $80 winnings, net profit: $-2

Wednesday (5/25)
The early slate on Wednesday presented us with seven games and the results reinforced my logic from Tuesday. Jake Arrieta was on the mound, but he was in a difficult matchup against the Cardinals. I chose Corey Kluber as he allowed for a more well-rounded offense. He produced 58 fantasy points against the White Sox and his salary of $9,200 allowed me to target the action in Texas. I utilized two players from the Angels (Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun), but it was the Texas hitters that really boosted me. Adrian Beltre ($3,200; 19.2 fantasy points) and Ryan Rua ($2,300; 31.6 fantasy points) had big games at home against lefty Hector Santiago. Mike Trout ended up being the worst producer at 3.5 fantasy points, which meant the mid-range players carried my team.

$2 double up, 113 entries
Cash line: 165.2 FanDuel Points
My score: 142 FanDuel Points, 20th place finish, $4 winnings
Weekly Totals: $6 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $2
Overall Totals: $84 entries, $84 winnings, net profit: $0

Thursday (5/26)
This is where things got ugly. This is also another good opportunity to highlight another important thing to keep in mind. Shorter slates mean more overlap, which usually means it’s prudent to scale back your play (I did), or take the day off altogether (I wish I had). Now that I have been a human lesson book this week, let’s see what went wrong. I was incredibly nervous about using Lance McCullers. In retrospect, I should not have been. The good news is that 61.4% of the field anchored their lineups with Matt Wisler just like I did. He cost just $6,500, and while he produced 30 fantasy points, the higher-priced hitters that I was able to afford flopped. Here’s a recap of the hitters; Jose Altuve ($4,100; three fantasy points), Nolan Arenado ($4,000; 3.5 fantasy points), Carlos Correa ($3,900; zero fantasy points), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($4,300; zero fantasy points). The lone bright spot from my hitters was Carlos Gonzalez, who cost just $3,000 and produced 25.2 fantasy points. We all know how streaky he is, and he showed some signs of emerging from his mid-May slump, so it almost felt like stealing getting him at that price.

$2 double up, 568 entries
Cash line: 117.6 FanDuel Points
My score: 73.9 FanDuel Points, 521st place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $8 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $0
Overall Totals: $86 entries, $84 winnings, net profit: $-2

Friday (5/27)
My woes in the latter part of the week continued as the long weekend arrived. Max Scherzer’s issues with the long ball struck again and the result was just 24 fantasy points. Luckily, 46.1% of the field owned him. Derek Norris was a strong value at just $2,200 in a great hitting environment and he responded with 37.7 fantasy points. I only endured one zero from my hitters, but Josh Donaldson’s monster game really put me behind the eight ball. I loved Donaldson in tournaments (I used him there) as he faced Joe Kelly, who had really struggled with same-handed hitters in the past. It turns out that I should have been more attracted to his salary of $3,600 than I was. I used Matt Duffy ($3,300) at Coors Field (my only zero), so where could I have found the extra $200 (I spent $34,900)?  Simply put, first base. I used Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000), who was actually my top overall hitter. He faced a weak left-handed pitcher at home, but the end result was just three fantasy points. While we can always split hairs, I did have Joey Votto ($3,300) as the alternative to Goldschmidt, which would have allowed for Donaldson. Still, the process was right, and I can’t dwell on the decision (although it did hurt).

$2 double up, 121 entries
Cash line: 121 FanDuel Points
My score: 101.8 FanDuel Points, 384th  place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $10 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $-2
Overall Totals: $88 entries, $84 winnings, net profit: $-4

Saturday (5/28)
Saturday was pretty ugly, but the results boiled down to two issues. First, I knew going into roster lock that I wouldn’t be able to verify rosters (took two zeroes from non-starts). To make matters worse, I rolled the dice on Michael Pineda as I went the value route in an effort to get more Coors Field exposure on a short slate. Pineda cost just $7,600, but two fantasy points obviously won’t get it done. So, yes, I was able to manage 126 fantasy points from my hitters despite two zeroes. The worst part of this is that had I been able to monitor rosters before lineup lock, I would have been able to get Ryan Braun and Denard Span out and swap in Jarrett Parker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. This would have freed up enough salary to not have to roll the dice on Michael Pineda, while bringing an extra 58.9 fantasy points to my total (assuming I went with my No. 2 pitcher, Danny Salazar).

$2 double up, 113 entries
Cash line: 165.3 FanDuel Points
My score: 128 FanDuel Points, 96th place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $12 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $-4
Overall Totals: $90 entries, $84 winnings, net profit: $-6

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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.

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