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Overhyped or Overlooked – An Analysis of ECR vs. ADP

by Aaron Medvidofsky
Jun 1, 2016

Can Thomas Rawls rebound from the ankle injury he suffered last season?

Can Thomas Rawls rebound from the ankle injury he suffered last season?

Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes the disparity between the Expert Consensus Ranking and Average Draft Position.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.

There’s a big gap between NFL seasons which leaves ample time for our memory to get a bit hazy regarding what happened last year. Some players become reduced to a stat line while others get picked up by the hype train and shoot up the rankings far beyond where they should be. Using FantasyPros’  Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and Consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) I’ve identified two players at each position that the experts and the public can’t agree on; one that is getting overhyped and another that is being overlooked and could provide huge value at their current ADP.

Overhyped

Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA): ECR: 35 ADP: 23

Why he’s overhyped
It’s easy to see why people are excited about Rawls. He’s a physical young running back that played well last year when given the opportunity and is a good fit for Seattle’s run-first offense. Based on word coming out of Seattle he will be getting the first crack at running duties.

What the experts see
There are a few things working against Rawls if you are counting on him at a top 10 RB. The biggest one is his ability to come back at full strength from a catastrophic ankle injury suffered late last season. There’s still plenty of time to go, but if you’re drafting before Rawls is fully healthy, I’d be wary for that reason alone.

Rawls also has some competition in the backfield this year. The Seahawks just drafted C.J. Prosise, who is expected to command third down duties, and Christine Michael performed admirably when called upon last year. It’s difficult to predict what the role of those two will be going forward.

Finally, there is the issue of his limited sample size. Rawls tallied 147 carries last year and as previously mentioned failed to hold up under the workload. You only need to look back at last year’s ADP of C.J. Anderson and Jeremy Hill to see why drafting Rawls this highly is a risky proposition at the very least.

Carson Wentz (QB – PHI): ECR: 309 ADP: 186

Why he’s overhyped
The Eagles traded up to the second overall pick to draft who will presumably be their franchise QB. Wentz has plus size and athleticism that could make him a threat on the ground which is a valuable commodity for fantasy QBs.

What the experts see
Wentz has a long way to go before he’s ready to compete at the NFL level. While he does have talent and future upside he is extremely raw and is not even guaranteed to start a game this year. Even if he does get that opportunity, he is not someone that I would be comfortable occupying a starting spot on my roster.

Chris Hogan (WR – NE): ECR: 194 ADP: 167

Why he’s overhyped
Hogan joined one of the best offenses in the NFL when he signed with the Patriots in March. This is a team that knows how to get value out of athletic players that had difficulty gaining traction elsewhere. Hogan seems to fit the bill as he has immense physical talent that was seemingly wasted in Buffalo’s run-first offense.

What the experts see
The Patriots’ offense is notoriously difficult to learn which could serve to slow down Hogan’s integration into the scheme. Hogan has stiff competition for targets in Gronkowski, Edelman, Amendola and Martin.

There’s also the issue of Brady’s potential suspension, which would keep him out for almost half of the regular season. Not only does that mean an offense that isn’t producing as much but also equates to less time to build chemistry with his QB.

Tyler Eifert (TE – CIN): ECR: 68 ADP: 49

Why he’s overhyped
As an undrafted or late drafted player Eifert exploded onto the scene last year as one of the biggest red-zone threats in the NFL. He was able to single-handedly win some weeks for his owners with five games with two or more TDs. With the Bengals losing two of their receivers Eifert is seemingly set up for an even better season this year.

What the experts see
While there’s no doubt that Eifert is one of the better tight ends, the start of Round 5 is a risky place to pick up a tight end that has struggled with health and consistency. Even now his ability to be ready for Week 1 is in doubt which means you would need to roster a second tight end to start the season. At the point that Eifert is being drafted, there are some quality WR/RB options that are likely a safer bet.

Overlooked

Frank Gore (RB – IND): ECR:73 ADP: 83

Why he’s overlooked
Gore just posted his first sub 1,000-yard season since 2010, leading people to believe that he could be going over the dreaded proverbial cliff. Regardless of where he landed at the end of the season people just couldn’t get excited for the aging back.

What the experts see
Despite the lackluster season, Gore still managed to post borderline RB1 numbers last year. What’s more impressive is that he did it while facing stacked boxes on an offense that could not get any traction due to injury.

With Andrew Luck back and an improved offensive line Gore is an absolute steal at his current ADP. It’s worth noting that since his rookie season he has never finished outside of the top 20 fantasy running backs.

Philip Rivers (QB – SD): ECR: 93 ADP: 111

Why he’s overlooked
Rivers fell off dramatically in the second half of the season. During that time, he struggled to find consistency and failed to throw a TD pass in three of those eight games. To put it simply, he wasn’t a QB that could be counted on for fantasy purposes.

What the experts see
Rivers’ fall coincided perfectly with the loss of Keenan Allen and was made worse by injuries to Antonio Gates, Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd. Before that, he was pacing as a top five QB.

Basically, Rivers didn’t have anyone to throw the ball to. In addition to now having healthy receivers, the Chargers signed Travis Benjamin in free agency which provides yet another weapon.

Donte Moncrief (WR – IND): ECR: 69 ADP: 100

Why he’s overlooked
Despite high expectations, Moncrief could not put together consistent production last year. He is the second option in the receiving game and could get pressed by the other young receivers on the roster. Many thought he would breakout last year and, as a result, Moncrief is suffering the post-hype hangover.

What the experts see
Last year was a disaster for the entire Colts’ offense, and Moncrief was a casualty of that. With Luck returning at full health they will continue to build on their chemistry that had started to develop at the beginning of the season. Moncrief is a prototypical receiver that has the potential to be a top 20 receiver if things go well this year.

Eric Ebron (TE – DET): ECR: 124 ADP: 165

Why he’s overlooked
Ebron has been labeled a bust by some after failing to become a significant factor in the Lions’ offense in his sophomore season. Despite his size Ebron managed only five TD receptions last year and never caught more than five passes in a single game.

What the experts see
Tight ends are notoriously slow to develop and despite last year being a bit of a letdown, it was at least encouraging to see increased production over his rookie season. Ebron could also be primed to step into a very high workload with the departure of Calvin Johnson during the off-season. Ebron is extremely athletic for his size and is one of the best candidates for a huge leap at tight end this year.


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