Even without third-down duties, Thomas Rawls is still slated to see a huge uptick in work this season
All serious fantasy players know that finding value on Draft Day is a key component to winning a season-long fantasy competition. Anyone with minimal knowledge and understanding of the game can draft the first two rounds and appear to know what they are doing.
It is after the first two rounds that the owners who spend countless hours researching players, schedules, coaching changes, etc. begin to separate themselves from the casual fantasy player. Unfortunately for the hardcore owner who spends all those hours in the lab, there are people like me…the ones who do all the work, then write short summaries for everyone to read.
As for value from a must have RB, this had to be a player who was going outside the top 10 at his position, thus providing some value based on his draft cost and making him available to anyone who wants him. Thomas Rawls’ current ADP has him as the 13th RB off the board (31st overall). All he did in 2015 was lead the NFL in yards per carry (for any player with 100 plus carries) with a stellar 5.6 YPC while serving as a backup to the now departed Marshawn Lynch.
He is now the unquestioned lead back on a team that has been top four in rushing attempts and rushing yards in each season since 2012. He will face the easiest schedule for a running back in 2016. Russell Wilson is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback who prevents defenses from stacking the box and keying on the run.
Rawls’ 31st overall ADP puts him mid third round in 12 team leagues, and his potential provides high upside as an owner’s RB2 or allows an owner to play him as an RB1 and draft two elite WRs ahead of him. He is coming off of a fractured ankle but reports indicate he will be ready for Week 1 and re-injury of that ankle is not a real concern. Some are concerned that rookie C.J. Prosise will be the third down passing game back, but Lynch wasn’t a significant contributor in the passing game but still performed like a perennial top fantasy RB.
While you shouldn’t expect Rawls to average 5.6 YPC, he will see a significant increase in workload with Lynch out of the picture and should eclipse 250 touches if healthy. Rawls has the potential to return mid to high-level RB1 numbers, and I will be more than happy to acquire his services at his current ADP.
Bobby Bunch is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @bobby_bunch.
