Can Zero WR Strategy Help you Dominate? (Fantasy Football)

Are you better off drafting RBs early than WRs?

Eric Moody analyzes the Zero WR strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Can the Zero RB strategy help you dominate your fantasy draft? This was a question I answered in a previous article by walking our readers through Shawn Siegele’s influential strategy via a mock draft. A fellow RotoViz writer Anthony Amico has been championing a strategy he calls Robust RB. It is a strategy that is similar to Matthew Freedman’s RB5x strategy, but with an emphasis on drafting running backs early instead of wide receivers. Here is an excerpt from Anthony’s article discussing what prompted him to leverage this strategy:

Before starting, it is important to inform you that the purpose of this article is not to tell you that Zero RB is a bad strategy, or that it can’t win leagues in 2016. It absolutely can. But in 2016, I’m going to be hunting for upside and drafting for the win through Zero WR.

Anthony goes on to build a rather compelling case in his article about how the strategy can help you win your league.

The purpose of this article is to leverage the FantasyPros Draft Wizard in order to display the use of Amico’s Robust RB strategy in a 12-team PPR (points per reception) league via a snake draft. The Draft Simulator is an efficient way to practice for your upcoming fantasy football draft. It is similar to doing a live mock draft except that you are drafting against the FantasyPros computer algorithm (which uses a random selection of expert cheat sheets and ADP sources). For this article I selected the option to use the ADP (average draft position) from FantasyFootballCalculator.com. The starting lineup in this mock draft will consist of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one defense, and one FLEX player (which can be a running back, wide receiver, or tight end). Each team will have eight bench spots. In this mock I will draft from the number three spot and provide brief analysis on my selections.

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Round 1

Todd Gurley
Gurley is a once in a decade talent who missed the first three games of the 2015 season but still finished as a top five fantasy running back. Gurley produced 0.75 fantasy points per touch last season. He played 456 offensive snaps and touched the football on 54.8 percent of them. Gurley was given 30 carries inside the 20-yard line. The Rams will remain a run-heavy offense in 2016, and he is one of the few true workhorse backs in the NFL.

Round 2

Mark Ingram
Ingram played on 535 of the Saints offensive snaps and touched the football or was targeted on 42.2 percent of them. He was finally used as a three-down back and set a career high in total yards (1,174) and targets (60) last season. Ingram’s season was cut short due to a shoulder injury, but at the time of the injury he was a top three running back in PPR formats. Ingram had 32 carries inside the 20-yard line.

Round 3

Eddie Lacy
Lacy is one of my favorite bounce-back candidates in 2016. He is entering a contract year and is financially motivated to produce a monster season in order to land a career-defining contract. The return of Jordy Nelson will allow the Packers’ offense to return to form. Back in 2014, the Packers’ offense scored 2.63 points per drive, with 45 percent of their drives reaching the red zone, and once in the red zone the team scored a touchdown on 67 percent of them. Lacy set a career low in offensive snaps played (471), rushing attempts (187), rushing yards (758), and rushing touchdowns (3) in 2015. He has the potential to finish 2016 as a top five fantasy running back.

Round 4

Latavius Murray
Murray was one of seven running backs with 1,000 or more rushing yards in 2015. He is entering a contract year and is financially motivated to produce a monster season in order to land a career-defining contract. Murray was a victim of negative game script week in and week out. The Raiders defense gave up 1.92 points per drive. Murray produced 0.53 fantasy points per touch and was given 34 carries inside the red zone, but was inconsistent the second half of the season. The Raiders drafted running back DeAndre Washington in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL Draft. He may be used on passing downs or give Murray a breather on early downs. All of these factors have driven Murray’s ADP down since the NFL Draft. The Raiders have made major changes on the defensive side of the football which could positively impact the offense and Murray. Washington does pose a threat to Murray, but it is a risk worth taking for my fourth running back.

Round 5

Giovani Bernard
Last season Bernard actually outscored Jeremy Hill in fantasy points in PPR formats (Hill outscored Bernard as a rookie in 2014). The Bengals lost Marvin Jones and Mohammad Sanu to free agency. The team has also lost Tyler Eifert earlier this year after he suffered an injury in the Pro Bowl. Now the Bengals are dealing with an injury to tight end Tyler Kroft. I anticipate Bernard will catch a high number of passes as the third receiving option. He (1,095) has played more offensive snaps than Hill (964) over the last two seasons. This will be the season Bernard truly distances himself from Hill. He has a higher DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and DYOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) than Hill according to Fantasy Outsiders. The easiest way to describe it: DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play.

Bengals RB DYAR and DVOA from 2015

Source: FantasyOutsiders.com

Round 6

John Brown
Brown has the highest floor of any of the Cardinals’ wide receivers. Larry Fitzgerald was the only Cardinals’ receiver to play more offensive snaps and produce more fantasy points than Brown. He produced 2.19 fantasy points per reception last season despite only having three double-digit target games last season. Brown is my candidate to lead the Cardinals in receiving yards in 2016.

Round 7

DeSean Jackson
Jackson is another wide receiver that is criminally undervalued. He dealt with a shoulder injury last season and is only a season removed from finishing as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver. Jackson is still the No. 1 wide receiver in the Redskins’ explosive offense. He provides fantasy owners with week-winning upside anytime Jackson is in your starting lineup. This article I wrote for RotoViz provides you a more detailed analysis of Jackson’s outlook in 2016.

Round 8

Torrey Smith
Smith continues to be touted as a breakout candidate heading into 2016 as the No. 1 wide receiver in 49ers head coach Chip Kelly’s offense. He is another wide receiver that is undervalued. Smith will be in a position to recreate the fantasy fireworks that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin created back in 2013 and 2014. Both players finished the season as top 10 fantasy wide receivers.

Round 9

Tyler Lockett
Lockett’s ADP continues to rise after NFL.com writer and Reception Perception creator Matt Harmon has tapped him as a breakout candidate (for those who don’t know he was pounding the drum for Allen Robinson heading into the 2015 season). He had finished the season on a positive note as the Seahawks’ offense finally gave quarterback Russell Wilson the keys to the car. Lockett had 40 reception, 404 receiving yards, and five touchdowns from Week 11 until the end of the season.

Round 10

Sterling Shepard
Shepard is essentially a lock to open the 2016 season as the Giants No. 2 wide receiver opposite Odell Beckham. He inherits a role previously held by Rueben Randle who had 90 targets and played 89.4 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps last season. Shepard will likely face single coverage a high percentage of the time he is running routes due to the defensive attention Beckham warrants. The Giants’ offense scored 2.03 points per drive (the eighth highest among NFL teams) and tied the Patriots for the most passing touchdowns (36) in 2015. This is an offense you want to own a piece of on your fantasy football team this season.

Round 11

Martellus Bennett
All of the feedback from reporters covering the Patriots suggest that Bennett is primed for a big passing game role with the team. The Patriots are known for leveraging the tight end position and outside of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman have few dependable options. The Patriots have run a high number of two tight end sets and special packages in the red zone in the past. Gronkowski and Bennett are squarely in their physical prime. I anticipate seeing this type of production from the Patriots tight ends moving forward.

Bennett will fill the role that Aaron Hernandez excelled in from 2010 to 2012. He is very effective in the open field with making opposing defenders miss. According to Pro Football Focus, there have only been three tight end seasons with 20 or more forced missed tackles. Hernandez (1) and Bennett (2) are the only tight ends with a seat at this table.

Round 12

Michael Thomas
Thomas was targeted by the Saints’ front office to inherit the role of the “big slot receiver” that Marques Colston excelled at throughout his career. He has gotten rave reviews from quarterback Drew Brees and local reporters about how he is acclimating to the Saints offensive scheme. Thomas will have an immediate role in the offense as the number three wide receiver. Brees has attempted 600 or more passes each season since 2010. He has consistently thrown 32 or more touchdowns each season over that time frame.

Thomas is inheriting a role that averaged 6.8 targets per game, a target share of 0.16, and a 0.06 touchdown rate over the last four seasons. He has a WR3 floor with WR2 upside in 2016.

Round 13

Kirk Cousins
Cousins was a great fit for Redskins head coach Jay Gruden’s offensive scheme. He finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback last season. Cousins’ performance during the fantasy playoffs [Weeks 14 (21.30 fantasy points), Week 15 (35.86) and Week 16 (32.20)] helped many owners win championships in 2015. He is entering a contract year after not being able to negotiate a deal with the Redskins’ front office. Cousins is financially motivated, has elite receiving weapons, and a questionable running game. What is there not to be excited about given this scenario? Cousins is one of my favorite quarterbacks to target in the later rounds.

Round 14

Devin Funchess
Funchess is in a prime position to break out in 2016 lining up opposite Kelvin Benjamin. He just turned 22 back in May of this year. Funchess took the majority of his rookie season to get adjusted to life as an NFL wide receiver. Even if the Panthers’ offense regresses this season he is still a prime candidate to greatly outperform his ADP.

Round 15

Spencer Ware
Ware is a lottery ticket in the scenario that Jamaal Charles misses time in 2016. He recently signed a two-year, $3.6 million dollar extension and is listed as the Chiefs No. 2 running back. Ware outperformed Charcandrick West in many statistical categories from an efficiency standpoint.

Round 16

Buffalo Bills DST

Round 17

Justin Tucker

Conclusion

This mock draft provides you a sense of what a Zero WR team could look like. The foundation of the team revolves around a strong core of running backs with the intent of starting a back in the FLEX each and every week. The wide receiver core is centered around undervalued players who have WR1 upside on any given week and are connected to high-performing offenses. I prefer to draft a late-round quarterback with upside. The top three fantasy quarterbacks in 2015 averaged 22.2 points per game.

The key to executing this strategy or Zero WR in live fantasy drafts is to be fully committed to the strategy. You want to refrain from drafting a wide receiver in the high-leverage rounds (one through five). The only scenario you would want to alter your strategy is if you find an unimaginable value (Ex. Dez Bryant in the fourth round).

Amico has also written a three-part series (Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3) at RotoViz to complement his Robust RB strategy that revolves around what wide receivers to target if you plan to execute the strategy.