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Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks (Fantasy Football)

Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks (Fantasy Football)
Joe Flacco

If strength of schedule is any indication, Joe Flacco could be in store for a bounce-back season

The value and importance of looking at each team’s strength of schedule by position is one of most disputed factors when trying to determine player predictions and performance for the upcoming season. Some people use strength of schedule to determine which teams have the easiest schedule based on fantasy points allowed to the position by all of their opponents for the upcoming schedule.

I like to take a little bit of a different approach to strength of schedule by instead looking at which teams have the biggest percentage increase or decrease in production (yardage and touchdowns) when comparing their 2015 schedule to their 2016 schedule.

For example, the Baltimore Ravens 2015 opponents allowed an average of 4,193 passing yards last season. Looking ahead to the Ravens 2016 schedule their opponents allowed an average of 4,327 passing yards for an increase of 3.10%.

I believe it is this year over year difference where strength of schedule can be used as a valuable tool to help predict increased or decreased production based on the schedule for the upcoming season.

In this article, I will analyze strength of schedule for the quarterback position looking at passing yardage and touchdown passes, highlighting which teams (players) should benefit from an easier schedule and which teams (players) could be hurt by a more difficult schedule in 2016.

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Passing Yardage – Gains

Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco): +3.10%
Flacco and the Ravens had a forgettable 2015 season. Flacco missed the last six games of the season but was on pace for a career-high in passing yards averaging 279.1 yards per game. With an easier schedule for the passing game and healthy offensive weapons at wide receiver and running back, Flacco could be poised for his first career 4,000-plus passing yardage season.

Chicago Bears (Jay Cutler): + 3.05%
Cutler took a step back last season statistically passing for just 3,659 yards which was partially due to limited weapons in the passing game with his top target Alshon Jeffery playing in only nine games. With the return of a healthy Jeffery and Kevin White on top of an easier schedule this season, Cutler might be able to register his first 4,000 passing yard season since 2008.

Cleveland Browns (Robert Griffin III): + 3.04%
The Browns had some success passing last year when Josh McCown was under center. This year with newly acquired Griffin expected to play quarterback and a new head coach in Hue Jackson, the offense might have a more run-heavy look to it. However, when the Browns do look to the air they could have some success with a softer schedule for passing yardage.

The next three:

Passing Yardage – Losses

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston): -3.79%
Winston had a solid rookie season passing for 4,042 yards. He should make some strides this year with a season of experience behind him but he will be challenged with a tougher schedule. With a more difficult schedule for the passing game, Winston’s upside could be limited holding him back from rising up to being a reliable every week starter this year.

Atlanta Falcons (Matt Ryan): -3.16%
Ryan has passed for over 4,500 yards in each of his last four seasons. However, with the emergence of a solid running game last year and questionable depth at wide receiver behind Julio Jones, Ryan could dip below 4,500 passing yards this season with a more challenging schedule.

New England Patriots (Tom Brady/Jimmy Garoppolo): -2.88%
The first four games, while Brady is out, are more challenging from an opponent passing yardage allowed perspective than the remaining 12 games when Brady returns. Garappolo will likely struggle to consistently move the ball through the air in the first four games while Brady should have more success over the rest of the season, although Brady’s remaining schedule is still slightly more difficult than last season.

The next three:

Passing Touchdown – Gains

Chicago Bears (Jay Cutler): +14.81%
Cutler was held to 21 touchdown passes last season after throwing for 28 scores in 2014. He should be able rebound this year to 25-plus scores with an easier schedule and healthy weapons at wide receiver.

Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers): +14.81%
Rodgers saw his passing touchdowns drop to 31 last season with the loss of Jordy Nelson for the season and a more difficult schedule than he will see this year. With the return of Nelson and a schedule that allows more touchdown passes than last year, Rodgers could push back into the upper 30s for touchdown passes this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger): +14.29%
Roethlisberger threw 21 touchdown passes last season in 12 games. If he can stay healthy, Roethlisberger should be able to approach the career-high 32 touchdown passes he threw in 2014 with a softer schedule this year.

The next three:

Passing Touchdowns – Losses

New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees): -17.39%
Brees’ touchdown pass total has decreased in each of the previous four seasons from a high of 46 in 2011 down to 32 last year. The 37-year-old signal caller could dip below 30 touchdown passes this season with a more difficult schedule.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston): -16.67%
Winston threw 22 touchdown passes during a successful rookie season. However, he may find it challenging to build on that number this season as defenses make adjustments to him and he faces a more difficult schedule to throw touchdown passes against.

New England Patriots (Tom Brady/Jimmy Garoppolo): -12.00%
While the first four games feature opponents that are more difficult to gain passing yardage against, the first four opponents are easier to throw for touchdowns against if the Patriots give Garoppolo the opportunity. Brady, however, will see a tougher challenge over the remaining 12 games which could limit the touchdown upside for him when he returns this year.

The next three:


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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.

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