How will the Saints schedule impact Mark Ingram this season?

The value and importance of looking at each team’s strength of schedule by position is one of most disputed factors when trying to determine player predictions and performance for the upcoming season. Some people use strength of schedule to determine which teams have the easiest schedule based on fantasy points allowed to the position by all of their opponents for the upcoming schedule.

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I like to take a little bit of a different approach to strength of schedule by instead looking at which teams have the biggest percentage increase or decrease in production (yardage and touchdowns) when comparing their 2015 schedule to their 2016 schedule.

For example, the Cleveland Browns 2015 opponents allowed an average of 1,339 rushing yards to running backs last season. Looking ahead to the Browns 2016 schedule their opponents allowed an average of 1,492 rushing yards to running backs for an increase of 10.25%.

I believe it is this year over year difference where strength of schedule can be used as a valuable tool to help predict increased or decreased production based on the schedule for the upcoming season.

In this article, I will analyze strength of schedule for the running back position looking at rushing yardage, receiving yardage and rushing touchdowns, highlighting which teams(players) should benefit from an easier schedule and which teams(players) could be hurt by a more difficult schedule in 2016.

See my previous article for Strength of Schedule analysis of Quarterbacks.

Rushing Yardage- Gains

Cleveland Browns (Isaiah Crowell/Duke Johnson): +10.25%

The Browns ranked 29th in RB rushing attempts and yards last season but with a new run-first head coach in Hue Jackson and an easier schedule look for the running game in Cleveland to improve this season. Now it is just a matter of how the carries get divided up between Crowell and Johnson as both should see an increase in their overall productivity.

Chicago Bears (Jeremy Langford/Jordan Howard): + 7.94%

With the departure of Matt Forte, the Bears’ backfield is wide open for an offense that ranked 8th in RB rushing yards in 2015. Langford only averaged 3.6 yards per attempt last season causing many to write him off in favor of rookie Howard this year. However, Langford could take the job and run with it if he starts the season as the primary ball carrier thanks to a softer schedule this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell/DeAngelo Williams): + 6.30%

Bell only played in six games last season and is facing a three-game suspension to begin the 2016 season. While the early season schedule (first three games) is slightly more difficult than the last 13 games, overall the Steelers will enjoy an easier schedule to run the ball against which could make both Bell and Williams worth grabbing a little earlier than their ADP.

The next three:

• Green Bay Packers (Eddie Lacy): +5.94%
• Detroit Lions (Ameer Abdullah): +5.76%
• Cincinnati Bengals (Jeremy Hill/Giovanni Bernard): +5.27%

Rushing Yardage – Losses

New York Jets (Matt Forte): -8.33%

The Jets ranked 11th in RB rushing yards last season with Chris Ivory as the lead back. The newly acquired Forte who has averaged just 4.0 yards per carry over the last two seasons might find yardage a little harder to come by this season with more difficult opponents to run against.

New Orleans Saints (Mark Ingram): -7.64%

The Saints ranked 20th in RB rushing yards last season and will face a stiffer challenge running the ball this season. Ingram should still benefit from receiving the bulk of the carries for the Saints but he will need the volume as his 4.63 yards per attempt last season while likely decrease against better rush defenses this season.

Atlanta Falcons (Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman): -7.60%

Despite a great fantasy season by Freeman last year he only averaged 4.0 yards per carry. He could have a hard time matching that number this season as the Falcons face better rush defenses and a healthy Coleman could cut into his touches.

The next three:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Doug Martin): -7.36%
• Miami Dolphins (Adrian Foster/Jay Ajayi): -6.85%
• New England Patriots (LeGarrette Blount/James White): -6.53%

Receiving Yardage- Gains

Denver Broncos (C.J. Anderson): +6.84%

Anderson led Broncos’ running backs in receptions last season with 25 catches for 183 yards. Those numbers should go up this season if Anderson stays in the game as the Broncos every down back with an easier schedule for pass catching backs in Denver.

Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley/Benny Cunningham): +6.20%

While Cunningham led the Rams running backs in receptions and receiving yards last season he could give up some catches this season to Gurley as the Rams try to get the ball in their second-year running back’s hands as often as possible. Gurley has the ability catch 2-3 passes per game and an easier schedule will allow him to be more protective when he catches the ball out of the backfield.

Kansas City Chiefs (Jamaal Charles): +5.39%

A big part of Charles’ game is receptions and getting the ball in space so he can use his speed and elusiveness in the open field. While the Chiefs may limit his carries to help keep him healthy, he should still be the primary receiver out of the backfield and catch 3-4 passes per game. Even with an easier schedule, he may not be able to catch 70 passes like he did in 2013 but 40-50 receptions are well within his reach.

The next three:

• Oakland Raiders (Latavius Murray/DeAndre Washington): +4.71%
• Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy): +4.07%
• San Francisco 49ers (Carlos Hyde): +3.44%

Receiving Yardage – Losses

Washington Redskins (Chris Thompson): -6.34%

Thompson proved to be a reliable pass-catching back for the Redskins last season with 35 catches for 240 yards. He will likely play a similar role in the Redskins’ offense this season but could have a more difficult time piling up the yardage facing a more difficult schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars (T.J. Yeldon): -6.13%

Yeldon led the Jaguars in running back receptions last season averaging three catches for about 23 yards per game. Yeldon should remain as the top receiving back for the Jaguars this season but his overall value will likely diminish sharing carries with Chris Ivory and with a more difficult schedule for the Jaguars’ pass-catching back.

Indianapolis Colts (Frank Gore): -4.75%

Gore had 34 catches for 267 yards last season and will be the every down back for the Colts again this season. Gore will have a hard time replicating those numbers this season with a healthy Andrew Luck looking to push the ball down the field and with tougher defensive opponents for running back receiving yardage.

The next three:

• Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott): -4.10%
• Tennessee Titans (DeMarco Murray): -4.10%
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell/DeAngelo Williams): -3.17%

Rushing Touchdown – Gains

Oakland Raiders (Latavius Murray): +20.00%

Murray scored six of the Raiders seven rushing touchdown last season. On a team that has developed a good passing game and balanced offense, Murray could threaten to reach double-digit scores on the ground this season with a softer schedule than last year.

The next seven:

• Green Bay Packers (Eddie Lacy): +10.00%
• San Diego Chargers (Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead): +10.00%
• Seattle Seahawks (Thomas Rawls/Christine Michael): +10.00%
• Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley): +10.00%
• Houston Texans (Lamar Miller): +10.00%
• Denver Broncos (C.J. Anderson): + 10.00%
• Kansas City Chiefs (Jamaal Charles): +10.00%

Rushing Touchdowns – Losses

Miami Dolphins (Arian Foster): -28.57%

The Dolphins had nine rushing touchdowns from their running backs last season. While the newly acquired Foster, who has rushed for double-digit scores three times in his career, should help the running game near the goal line the tougher rush defenses the Dolphins will face this season could negate any big rushing touchdown upside for Foster.

The next four:

• New England Patriots (LeGarrette Blount): -12.50%
• Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy): -12.50%
• Baltimore Ravens (Justin Forsett): -12.50%
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell/DeAngelo Williams): -12.50%

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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.