Why is T.Y. Hilton being drafted later than experts suggest?
Eric Moody breaks down Average Draft Position and how to use it in your 2016 fantasy football drafts.
Are you currently preparing for your first fantasy football draft? Everyone has a story to share on how they were introduced to fantasy football. For some, it was through a family member, others it may have been a colleague at work, and some were simply diehard football fans who joined a league out of curiosity. The Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) said that 57 million people age 12 and above in the United States and Canada played fantasy sports in 2014. The number of those participating continue to grow every year. The purpose of this article is to introduce the concept of average draft position (ADP). It is a concept that is critical for new fantasy football players to not only understand, but have accessible during the draft.
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What is ADP?
Average Draft Position (ADP) refers to the average overall draft slot that has been used to draft each player in actual or mock fantasy drafts. If John Doe has been drafted first overall in five fantasy drafts and fourth overall in five drafts, John has an ADP of 2.5. ADP is a great resource in order to analyze player value. It helps you develop a game plan on where to select certain players. FantasyPros offers a consensus ADP ranking that can include up to seven sources including ESPN, Yahoo, and NFL.com. It can even be customized to include ADP from your specific host site and take into account if you are participating in a Standard or PPR (points-per-reception) format. The great news is that the ADP data is becoming even more accurate. Millions of mock drafts are conducted via FantasyPros, ESPN, and other providers.
Benefits of Using ADP
1. It helps you to determine when and where to draft certain players
ADP can be used to make sure you are not reaching on certain players. A player’s value is subjective to each individual owner in your fantasy league. This is reflected in where certain players fall in your drafts. If you live in Dallas and are participating in a local league the Cowboys players are likely to be valued higher than others. Who does not like to root for their local team? Some leagues may value quarterbacks more than other positions. While others value running backs even more. These are other elements you need to adapt to when evaluating ADP data. It may even require you drafting certain players a round or two earlier to stay ahead of the curve
2. Use Position Tiers as part of your draft day strategy
Not all owners in your fantasy league use ADP. Some may simply use a cheat sheet. Others may have no strategy at all. Position tiers provide you with a group of players who are expected to provide similar production, but have different ADPs. If you have three running backs to choose from, select the one with the best ADP. The other two running backs may still be available when you are on the clock again. The intent of tiers is to manage the supply and demand of certain positions. You want to have as many players as possible from the higher tiers. I will be providing articles in the near future focusing on tiers for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends using the new feature built into the FantasyPros consensus rankings.
3. Standard Deviation Matters
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its average. This means you should have an understanding of the highs and lows of a player’s ADP. Let’s use John Doe as an example. If Doe has an ADP of 4.05 (fifth selection of the fourth round) he could have a high of 2.07 or a low of 5.10. This provides you with a window of where you can anticipate selecting Doe in your fantasy draft. The great news is that FantasyPros team has already conducted all the research to provide fantasy owners with this kind of data via our Draft Wizard. You want to spend some time mapping out your draft based on your league settings. You want to prioritize a list of players to draft in each round of your draft. Nothing is worse than not planning in this area and looking like a deer in the headlights when your team is on the clock in a live draft.
4. Stress Test Your Game Plan by Leveraging the FantasyPros Draft Wizard
You want to conduct as many mock drafts as possible to prepare for your draft. This will give you a better understanding of where players are being selected. The FantasyPros Draft Wizard is an excellent solution for fantasy players to conduct as many mock drafts as possible in a timely manner. Here is a breakdown of how it can put you in a position to win your fantasy league:
We all know how important the draft is in fantasy football; getting out of the gate with a strong team sets you up for success within the season. The formula for winning your draft is no secret too. You need to have an accurate cheat sheet, accurate pick predictions for your opponents, and accurate decision-making during the draft (despite the pressure of “the clock”). The Wizard helps with all three of these needs…
Accurate Cheat SheetFantasyPros has tracked the accuracy of the top fantasy experts since 2009. We’ve learned that some experts consistently outperform others and that “consensus rankings” and “consensus projections” tend to be very accurate. In fact, our consensus rankings and projections have been cited by independent studies as being the most accurate in the industry. You can also try some consensus variations like combining the most accurate experts only, or combining the sites you personally trust. In all cases, we also recognize that you may be able to enhance the rankings (and beat the experts!), so we allow you to easily edit the cheat sheets to perfect them.
Accurate Pick PredictionsAlthough you may have a good idea of the players you want to target during the draft, knowing when to draft these players is very difficult. Our Simulator helps guide you by predicting what your opponents will do. And we don’t just assume everyone will be drafting based on ADP. Instead, we leverage hundreds of expert cheat sheets and ADP sources to match the variety of drafters you’re likely to face. We then use these rankings, in conjunction with in-draft pick logic based on team needs and position scarcity, to accurately predict which player each team will select.
Accurate Decision-Making
No matter how much you prepare for your draft, sometimes the pressure of the clock will cause you to take players you regret the minute you click on “draft him.” The stress level is exacerbated when you’re fumbling through paper cheat sheets or dealing with complicated draft software. Our Wizard simplifies everything. We narrow down your choices (based on your cheat sheets, your team needs, and predicted opponent picks), and give you a simple comparison of the players based on draft value or our consensus expert advice. Also, since our Draft Assistant looks and acts exactly like our Draft Simulator, you’ll be completely familiar with the interface during your draft.
I have personally leveraged the Draft Wizard in numerous drafts over the past few seasons. These drafts have included local leagues, in person auction drafts, experts or writers leagues, and even high-stakes formats. If you have an organized methodology to attack your draft then you have a higher probability of dominating your competition.
What do you want your fantasy team to look like?
Based on what you know about ADP you want to ask yourself a few questions. What would my perfect team look like? Was I able to draft the sleepers I was targeting? Is this a team that I can live with for the NFL season? At the end of the day fantasy football is about having fun, but use ADP to build a team you are are proud of.
Conclusion
ADP can be very useful, but remember it is not the end all be all. Use it as a guide during your fantasy draft, but do not be afraid to aggressively target the players you are high on. The ADP data is only as good as the source. The FantasyPros Draft Wizard is constantly being updated to reflect these changes. The Draft Wizard is also useful to observe the flow of the draft, the positions other owners need, and the best players available. Some owners go by the beat of his or her own drum and you may have to adapt in order to execute your strategy. You want to combine ADP with your own player values and drafting tools whether it be position tiers, a list of players you like, or a list of breakout players. What is your favorite way to prepare for fantasy drafts? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me on Twitter @EricNMoody.
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