Players Who Will Be Over-Drafted in 2017
Season-long fantasy football is now in the rearview mirror no matter what week your fantasy championship was. For those not quite ready to move on to baseball, 2017 is probably already on your mind. The good news is, we’ve got you covered. When analyzing players who will likely be over drafted there are a number of ways to look. A common factor is touchdown regression. However, I tend to look in a different direction due to the small sample size that is inherent every football season. Instead, I prefer to look to a player’s role in the offense, or projected role in this case. With that in mind, here is a very early look at player’s who will be over-drafted this season due to their 2016 performance.
In the past two seasons, Roethlisberger was the eighth and fifth quarterback off the board respectively. At that price, he should be a lock for the starting quarterback slot on a weekly basis. Instead, he finished as the 15th and 20th ranked quarterback in each of those seasons. By now, we are all familiar with his home and road splits, and according to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, over the past two seasons, Roethlisberger has averaged 29.85 points per game at home in 12 games as opposed to 16.61 points per game in 14 games on the road.
Those splits mean he is an elite option for home games, but in many instances, fantasy owners will have to look elsewhere when the Steelers are on the road. Add on his injury risk, he has missed eight games in the past two seasons, and there is no reason to spend a premium pick to have Roethlisberger on your team.
The argument against Prescott is based less in numbers and more on the lack of value he will hold heading into draft season due to the hype and attention he will garner throughout the offseason. Prescott finished as the QB6 this season and nothing should be taken away from that performance, especially given that it was in his rookie campaign. However, comps between Prescott and Russell Wilson are already littered around the internet and that chatter will only continue to grow. If his fantasy price comes close to that of Wilson in past seasons, he won’t find his way onto many of my teams next season due to the Cowboys’ desire to run the ball and play at a slow pace.
Murray finished as the RB5 this season after being viewed mostly as a consolation prize throughout the summer months. However, Derrick Henry saw his role increase in the second half of the season. Setting aside the arbitrary beginning of the sample, from Week 12 on, Derrick Henry saw 9.6 attempts per game as opposed to 6.89 from Weeks 1 to 11. As expected, in that same time frame, Murray’s attempts per game fell from 19.27 to 16.2. Those numbers indicate that the Titans didn’t run the ball more from Week 12 but instead just allocated more carries to Henry and less to Murray. That trend is likely to continue into next season, so If Murray and Henry both remain on the Titans roster to start next season Murray’s volume may be too diminished to return top value.
Williams enjoyed a breakout campaign as he emerged as the No. 1 option in the Chargers’ passing game after Keenan Allen suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. He took full advantage, as he recorded over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns despite fighting through a shoulder injury. The problem for Williams will be that Allen will return next season, Hunter Henry will likely take on a larger role in the offense, and Antonio Gates will now be around for another season to take away more red zone targets. What’s left for Williams won’t be enough to live up to his likely draft day price based on his 2016 breakout.