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Robbie Ray Profile (Fantasy Baseball)

Robbie Ray Profile (Fantasy Baseball)
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Diamondbacks SP Robbie Ray is one of the most polarizing players this season

Robbie Ray is a bit of an enigma heading into the 2017 season among fantasy circles. He posted the 21st-best strikeout rate in MLB history last season, but gave up four or more runs in 14 different starts and failed to pitch six innings or more 19 times. That, along with issuing nearly four free passes a game, led to a 4.90 ERA and a maddening season for Ray owners.

The major appeal to Ray is the strikeouts. Only 10 other pitchers have ever had a better K/9 rate than Ray’s 11.25 K/9 mark in 2016. A left-handed starting pitcher who projects for well over 200 strikeouts per year is fantasy gold. The problem is that Ray truly is a two-pitch pitcher at this point, having a four-seam fastball that touches 97 mph and a mid-80s slider that causes an above average number of swings and misses. He’s been steadily working on a change-up and a sinking fastball, but neither showed much ability to fool hitters or get outs last season.

If Ray can lessen the number of free passes he hands out, he’s someone that could easily maintain an ERA south of 4 and still strike out 200 hitters a year. Two things to keep in mind about Ray heading into the 2017 baseball season is the fact that the defense up the middle behind him last season was one of the worst in the majors, and he’s been working to fashion his change-up after teammate Zack Greinke’s.

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Supporting Cast

The defense behind Ray, and the rest of the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff should be better this season than in 2016. A large reason for that (hopefully intelligent) assumption is the simple fact that A.J. Pollock and Nick Ahmed are both reportedly healthy to begin the season. Arizona ranked among the game’s worst in defensive efficiency and capability last year.

Though a lack of adequate defense didn’t cause Ray to give up 24 home runs or walk nearly four batters a start, but improved defensive play will help save a few runs at the very least. Beyond that extra boost, Ray will be dealing with a catching staff that is terrible at framing pitches and blocking balls in the dirt. Additionally, the offense has serious question marks behind Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Yasmany Tomas, and maybe Brandon Drury – assuming his 2016 performance wasn’t a mirage.

The Expectations

The expectations for Ray are cautiously high. A large reason why is because he’s a strikeout machine. He’s the type of pitcher who can get shelled for 6 runs over 4 innings but still strike out 10 batters in the process. That type of swing-and-miss potential is intoxicating to fantasy owners, but temper your expectations. At no point in Ray’s career has he dramatically improved his walk rate and up to this point in his career, and having just two effective pitches to get hitters out with does not a quality starting pitcher make. Of his secondary pitches, his changeup appeared to be an effective pitch that would improve even more last season, but him tinkering with it led to a .472 BA against during the 2016 season. He throws a sinker that doesn’t sink, and he only began to experiment with a curveball in 2015.

Optimistically, Ray could put together a season where he strikes out closer to 9 hitters per outing, as opposed to 11, but cuts his walk rate by close to half and sports a mid-3’s ERA. However, he’s most likely to disappoint and still be prone to the occasional shellacking that has a tendency to destroy various pitching categories in a given scoring period.

Approach with caution and don’t count on Ray to be the stabilizing force in your rotation. He is very much a boom or bust type of fantasy starting pitcher.

The Value

Ray is projected to, once again, be among the league leaders in strikeouts and K/9 but the bigger question is whether he can find the strike zone with more consistency. Snagging Ray around the 13th round in a standard 5×5 with 12-14 teams, at the earliest, provides pretty good value for someone that fantasy baseball players seem to have their collective eyes on for a major breakout in 2017.

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Lance Rinker is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Lance, check out his archive or follow him @LanceMRinker.

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