With one of the more predictable moves of the offseason, the Eagles have signed free agent wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to a one-year contract. You may read that line again, because it did say “one-year contract,” but I assure you that it’s correct.
So why did Jeffery take a one year deal with the Eagles? There are rumblings that he just wanted out of Chicago and was willing to take a short-term deal in order to prove that his injuries aren’t lingering and that he can stay healthy. If he can stay on the field, you should expect a contract extension in-season.
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This wasn’t the first move made by the Eagles to shore up their receiving corps, as they added veteran Torrey Smith on Wednesday. To go from a starting wide receiving corps of Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham on the outside, to starting Jeffery and Smith is a massive upgrade for second-year starter Carson Wentz.
Just a year into Doug Pederson’s coaching tenure, we don’t have much to go off of in terms of how he’ll use his new trio of wide receivers, but you have to assume Jeffery is the top-dog. The issue is finding the volume that he saw with the Bears, as he’d averaged 8.9 targets per game since the start of 2013. You saw the Bears limit his targets in 2016 and his production suffered because of it.
He averaged just 7.2 targets per game in 2016, which ranked 33rd among wide receivers and his fantasy numbers dipped down to just 11.24 PPR points per game, which ranked 46th best, in between Donte Moncrief and Anquan Boldin. His production on a per-target base was nearly identical to that of 2015, though, when he finished with the exact same amount of targets (94), 14 more receiving yards (821 to 807), and two fewer touchdowns (two to four).
By now you likely want to know how his per-target production compares to those who are drafted around his third round ADP. Sammy Watkins point per target average over the last two years is 2.04 and Doug Baldwin’s sits at 2.29, meaning Jeffery’s 1.62 PPR points per target pales by comparison. You can argue that the quality of targets is better with those two, and while I wouldn’t disagree, it’s part of the equation. Wentz’s No. 1 target last year was Jordan Matthews, who averaged just 1.45 per target.
There is more to this equation, though, as Jeffery will have other legitimate options around him on the field, which may actually help increase his production. If you were to look at his most productive seasons in the league (2013-2014), they were with Brandon Marshall opposite him on the field. In those seasons, Jeffery was still able to manage high target volume despite Marshall, as he saw at least 145 targets in each of those seasons.
The part that gets interesting is that both of those seasons were in Marc Trestman-led offenses. If you were to look at Jeffery’s totals outside of Trestman, he doesn’t look as appealing.
| G | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | FPts | FPts/gm | |
| With Trestman | 32 | 294 | 174 | 2554 | 17 | 371.2 | 11.6 |
| W/O Trestman | 32 | 236 | 130 | 1995 | 9 | 253.5 | 7.9 |
As you can see, he averaged much more volume under Trestman and scored nearly double the touchdowns. Again, this was with Marshall on the field, which may have given him more one-on-one opportunities. I don’t think Torrey Smith is going to garner the attention that Marshall did, so Jeffery could see just as many double teams as he did without in Chicago without Marshall.
Now it’s important to note that this is not the largest sample size, but it is enough to question whether or not Jeffery should be viewed as a top 12 option, as he’s been the last few seasons. On the surface, my answer would be that he’s closer to being a WR3 than he is a WR1.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
