As we enter the second week of the 2017 MLB season, there are tangible standings to look at for the first time. This leads to concern for some owners, and they may overreact to a poor performance in a certain category by trying to make a trade. Of course, one week is nowhere near enough time to judge your team. Most batters have just 20 or 30 PA under their belt, while the top pitcher has just 15 IP.
Since you’re reading this, you’re probably not one of those panicking owners. Which means you’re probably one of the owners that take advantage of the ones that panick. Which means you can use this list to your advantage. Now is one of the best times to make trades in fantasy baseball, so here are some guys to either target or deal away as we head into the second week.
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Buy Lows
Maikel Franco (3B – PHI)
Franco went 2-for-3 on Monday, raising his average from .136 to .200. That should tell you about the kind of season he’s having. Of course, there are other numbers I can use that better describe his performance so far. He has four walks through seven games, good for a 13.3 walk percentage that would be nearly double his career-best rate. He has just a .238 BABIP, which implies he’s been a little unlucky so far this year and that his average should be higher. He’s making contact more often, connecting on 82.5 percent of his swings – that would represent a near-10 percent increase from last season. But most importantly, he’s hitting the ball hard. Among players with at least 10 balls in play, Franco ranks eleventh in average exit velocity according to Baseball Savant, hitting the ball at an average of 95.9 mph. That combination of walking, hitting for contact, and hitting the ball hard can only lead to success for Franco.
Russell Martin (C – TOR)
Any owner that sees that 0.000 average won’t be too happy. Of course, as I pointed out with Franco, batting average only tells a small part of the story. Martin is also walking a bunch, with six walks in just 20 PA so far this season. That’s most likely due to increased plate discipline, as he’s swung at just 16.7 percent of pitches outside of the zone so far according to PITCHf/x. His six walks compare favorably to just four strikeouts, meaning that even when he’s not walking, he’s making contact. He’s put the ball in play 10 times this year but has zero hits – a league average BABIP would give him a .300 average and a .450 OBP. If you need a replacement for Gary Sanchez or just an improvement at the catcher position, his owner may be willing to part with him for more attractive options.
Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)
Nola’s a guy I was big on during the preseason, and nothing in his first start changed that for me. He went up against Washington and, despite allowing three runs in six innings, pitched pretty well. A .467 BABIP certainly didn’t do him any favors (the BABIP gods are merciless toward the players I like), which his 1.66 FIP demonstrates. More important to me, though, are the strikeouts. He struck out seven of the 24 batters he faced, generating a swinging strike on 12.4 percent of his pitches. Undoubtedly, this was aided by an increase in his velocity. While much has been made about the increase in velocity among all pitchers, Nola is actually throwing significantly harder this year according to Baseball Savant, whose measurement system hasn’t changed:
| Season | Fastball Velocity (mph) |
| 2015 | 90.82 |
| 2016 | 90.31 |
| 2017 | 92.19 |
Brooks Baseball shows a similar pattern:
If that velocity spike is for real, there is a real possibility that Nola is an ace this year. Buy him while you can.
Sean Manaea (SP – OAK)
It hasn’t been a great sophomore campaign for the young left-hander so far, as he’s allowed four or more runs in consecutive games to start the season. His 7.15 ERA stands out, but so does his 3.52 FIP and 2.71 SIERA. Those impressive estimators are largely due to his 28.6 strikeout percentage, which is no fluke itself. Manaea is generating swings and misses on 19.1 percent of his pitches, which is just an absolutely insane number. Almost as insane, but in the other direction, is his 36.8 LOB percentage. Manaea’s due for significant positive regression, and I want to be there when it happens. He was a popular sleeper pick, so he might not be the easiest to obtain, but get him now if you can.
Sell Highs
Khris Davis (OF – OAK)
Davis earns the honor of being the first player to be named to this list twice. After homering twice in his first game of the season, he’s now pushed that total to four. Seems like a reasonable pace, no? Except that those four home runs have come on just six fly balls. You didn’t come here to do math, so I’ll do it for you: that’s a 66.7 HR/FB percent. That’s a rate even he’s not capable of sustaining. He also currently sports a .345 average, which, if his career is any indication (it is), will also drop significantly (it will). Davis will get his 35 home runs, but he’ll do it batting .250. Try to swap him for top-50 talent while he stays hot.
Hisashi Iwakuma (SP – SEA)
“The Flying Salmon” (damn, I really miss the old Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast) is floundering thus far. Not that you would know it based on his surprisingly low 2.25 ERA. Looking at his FIP, you’d probably think his estimators were switched with Manaea’s. But, no, walking more batters than you strike out will indeed give you an FIP over 7. Iwakuma’s been extraordinarily lucky this year, easily seen by his .097 BABIP and 100 LOB percentage. To pile onto his problems, his fastball velocity is down more than a tick. Not many owners nowadays will look solely at ERA, but if you can find someone who either believes in the success or anticipates a bounce back, sell for anything you can get.
Jameson Taillon (SP – PIT)
Taillon’s only pitched one game so far, so it’s harder to get a read on him. But man, was that an impressive showing. Going against last year’s top offense, albeit with Big Papi not on the roster and Mookie Betts fighting the flu, Taillon shut the Red Sox out over seven innings, generating six strikeouts to top it off. Unfortunately, there were negative signs as well. He walked three batters, which tends to be a problem for pitchers with as little major league experience as him. Like Iwakuma, he also managed to prevent everyone who reached base against him from scoring, which will certainly not be the case in the future. Eleven of the 17 balls hit into play were hard-hit according to FanGraphs, another sign of problems to come. Taillon is a huge name, and this kind of performance against the Red Sox surely didn’t go unnoticed by your league mates. The kid’s got potential, but his value’s never been higher.
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Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.