We’ve reached the point in the fantasy baseball season where people in your league are probably growing tired of their early-round draft picks who are hitting below the Mendoza line or displaying about as much power as Billy Hamilton. Some of these struggling sluggers should be avoided at all costs (see Bautista, Jose), but others represent a prime buy-low opportunity for enterprising fantasy managers.
When it comes to buying low, I look for struggling players who: A) have an established track record of high-level production in past seasons, and B) have underlying indicators that suggest they will return to that level of production soon. Of course, some players may be too established to be true buy-lows based on one subpar month. Few owners will be willing to sell low on Manny Machado or Anthony Rizzo, for instance, even though poor batted ball luck has dragged each of their batting averages below .230 to start the season.
Here are seven realistic buy-low targets who have been unlucky in the early going but are likely to return to form soon.
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Carlos Correa (SS – HOU)
Correa is the biggest name on this list and certainly belongs in the Machado/Rizzo class in terms of overall fantasy value. But there are a couple of reasons Correa may be more of a realistic buy-low option than the other two:
1) He has a shorter track record of elite production.
2) He’s been less good in the early going of the 2017 season.
Correa’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) are all in line with his career averages. The lack of stolen bases is a little concerning, but the Astros are among the top 10 in stolen base attempts, so you have to figure Correa will begin to run a bit eventually. What stands out in his early struggles is a home run per flyball rate of just 10.8 percent, despite the fact that he is hitting many more flyballs this year and also making more hard contact than ever before.
In other words, expect Correa’s home run total to jump in the near future. Perhaps the buy-low window already closed with the three-run jack Correa delivered on Tuesday, but it’s worth checking in with the owner in your league to find out for sure.
Maikel Franco (3B – PHI)
Franco has put up a healthy five home runs and 25 RBIs in the early going, but his .208 batting average could have his owners convinced he is going to be a major liability in that area. The reality is that he’s been the victim of a .211 BABIP, which is among the lowest in all of baseball. Franco’s hard hit rate is up significantly, and he’s hitting more line drives and grounders (and fewer flyballs), so if anything you’d expect his BABIP would be higher than in years past, not lower.
His walk rate is also up, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone, so his improvements at the plate look to be sustainable. If he keeps this up, there’s reason to believe Franco can top the .280 batting average he achieved in 2015 from this point forward, while continuing to deliver the power stroke that fantasy owners love.
Rougned Odor (2B – TEX)
Odor’s .202 BABIP is also one of the lowest in baseball, and 90 points lower than his career .292 BABIP entering this season. His strikeout rate and hard hit rate are about equal to last year, and although he is not known for his plate discipline, Odor is swinging at more pitches in the strike zone this year.
The main thing dragging down his BABIP is that he’s hitting more flyballs and particularly more infield pop-ups, but there isn’t much reason to believe that will continue. And even if Odor does continue to hit more flyballs, it should ultimately result in more home runs, which should be a palatable trade-off for a slight drop in batting average. Odor also may not match last year’s 14 stolen bases, but Texas is among the most aggressive teams on the basepaths, so his owners can feel confident he’ll grab at least a handful of bags before the season is over.
Ian Kinsler (2B – DET)
Another unlucky hitter so far has been Kinsler, whose .221 BABIP is far lower than he’s had in any other season in his 12-year career. Expect that figure to normalize soon and for Kinsler to produce close to his career .276 batting average from this point forward.
Kinsler remains unlikely to match last season’s 28 home runs, but he is hitting more flyballs and making harder contact this year, so another 20 home run season is entirely in reach. He also only has one stolen base so far, but as long as he recovers from the sore hamstring that has been bothering him of late, he should be able to finish with the typical 10-15 stolen bases he’s put up each of the last four seasons.
Brian Dozier (2B – MIN)
Dozier is a notoriously streaky hitter, and fantasy managers should not be buying low with the expectation that he will again hit 28 homers after the All-Star break and match last year’s career-best fantasy season. That said, while his surface stats look a lot like what he did from 2013-2015, there are subtle indicators that Dozier is a better hitter than he was then. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his soft contact rate is far lower than it’s ever been before.
Dozier is hitting many more balls on the ground and many fewer in the air than years past, which suggests his batting average could end up close to last year’s .268 mark. Alternatively, if he reverts to hitting more flyballs, his batting average will likely suffer but another season of 35-40 HRs becomes more likely.
The bottom line is that Dozier is displaying better plate discipline and hitting the ball harder than he used to, so the result should be offensive numbers somewhere in between his remarkable 2016 and everything that came before it. And that’s not even accounting for the fact that he’s currently on pace to blow past his career high of 21 stolen bases.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF – COL)
Gonzalez’s .229 BABIP is more than 100 points lower than his career mark, even though he is hitting more ground balls than ever before. He’s also hit a home run on just 7.4 percent of his fly balls in 2017, which is barely more than a third of his career rate. Also keep in mind that Gonzalez is a slow starter, which isn’t surprising from a Rockies hitter who benefits from hitting in Coors Field as the weather warms up.
Like Kinsler, Gonzalez has a fairly lengthy injury history, and he is making less hard contact than he used to, so a slight dropoff in power or batting average is possible in his age-31 season. But if people are dying to sell based on his .194 batting average and two home runs, you should happily buy into a player who remains a good bet to finish with a .280 batting average, 25 HRs, and excellent run production in a loaded Rockies lineup.
Kyle Seager (3B – SEA)
Seager is the one name on this list who hasn’t been unlucky in the BABIP department. In fact, his current .303 BABIP would match his career-high from his rookie season.
Rather, Seager’s buy-low appeal can be boiled down to one stat: 5.3 percent. That’s his home run per flyball rate, and it’s about eight percent lower than it was from 2014-2016. Seager’s strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up, so there’s reason to believe he’s graduated from a .260s hitter to a .270s hitter.
What isn’t sustainable is his current pace of 11 home runs. His season total may end up being lower because of his slow start, but expect Seager to swat homers at his usual 25-30 HR pace from here on out.
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Andrew Seifter is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
