DraftKings PGA Lineup Advice: AT&T Byron Nelson

May 17, 2017

Can Jason Day rebound in a tournament where he’s had previous success?

Last year, the AT&T Byron Nelson was 29th in strength of field, per the OWGR. Thus, it’s a mid-tier event with a relatively weak field. Just nine of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking are teeing it. However, four of the top six are in the field: Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Sergio Garcia, and Jordan Spieth. The probability of two of the four finishing inside the top 10 is high.

The winning score has ranged between 13 under and 18 under in the last four contests. The cut last year at even par and the top 10 all finished better than 13 under. So, there are plenty of birdies to be made.

As a par-70 layout, TPC Las Colinas devalues the role of par-5 scoring and the significance of driving distance. Past winners have excelled with their irons. Thus, we’re emphasizing strokes gained: approach, performance from 100-200 yards, greens in regulation, and proximity. It’s also worth giving a nod toward total driving, as the TPC presents plenty of tight driving holes.

Looking at DraftKings pricing this week, you’re likely going to grab one of the six golfers priced over $10,000. There are few low-end values this week, and almost no golfers under $6,900 are going to make your roster—although Brian Gay at $6,800 and Morgan Hoffmann at $6,700 may be worth a punt.

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If you want to go chalk…

Fade Spieth! Overpriced and has missed two of his last four cuts. As the third highest-priced player in the field, it’s unlikely he’ll return anywhere near the third-most points. Also, fade Patrick Reed. The seventh highest-priced golfer this week, Reed hasn’t sniffed a top-10 lately and has missed the cut in his two Byron Nelson starts. J.B. Holmes, 18th highest-priced on DK will be lucky to crack the top 40, steer clear on the heels of his Sawgrass faceplant. Everyone else in the top 20 is worth considering taking an ownership stake in this week.

Top-of-the-line considerations

Dustin Johnson: $12,500
Expensive? Yes. But the best golfer in the field with T12 or better finishes in five of his six Byron Nelson starts? You have to have a little DJ in your lineups, even with ownership expected to be north of 25 percent.

Jason Day: $10,100
J-Day should be under-owned this week, especially coming off a substandard showing at The Players (thanks to a final round 80). He won the Byron Nelson in 2010 and has a pair of top-10 finishes since then. He’s well off his 2016 pace and statistically inferior in most every category, but in a weak field, who knows?

Birdie Brigade

Birdies are the name of the game in GPP. Field leaders in birdie or better percentage.

Jordan Spieth: $10,800 (2)
Dustin Johnson: $12,500 (6)
Brooks Koepka: $10,200 (9)
Anirban Lahiri: $6,400 (15)
Tony Finau: $9,200 (17)
Brandt Snedeker: $8,400 (25)
Jason Dufner: $8,800 (26)
J.B. Holmes: $7,900 (30)

Recommended lineup

$12,500: Dustin Johnson
$8,400: Brandt Snedeker
$7,800: Marc Leishman
$7,600: Ryan Moore
$6,900: Nick Taylor
$6,700: Jonathan Randolph

Ben Alberstadt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ben, check out his archive and follow him @BenAlberstadt.

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