If “every old PGA Tour venue is new again” were actually a saying, it’d be applicable this week. TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, now renovated, hosts a PGA Tour event for the first time since the 2006 Booz Allen Classic.
The Quicken Loans National struggles to attract a quality field this year following a relatively strong-field event (Travelers Championship), which came on the heels of a major. And the fact that Tiger Woods will be in a rehab facility rather than at the course in any capacity certainly doesn’t help matters.
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From the look of the limited data, TPC Potomac will be tough. Extensive renovations after the departure of the Booz Allen Classic revealed a tough test at the 2010 Constellation Energy Senior Players Championship. The venue also hosted the Web.com Tour’s 2012 and 2013 Mid-Atlantic Championship.
This exacting par-70 test features bentgrass greens that are small and speedy, stimping in excess of 12. The rough is expected to be challenging, in the 3.5-4’’ range. In 2013, TPC Potomac was the most difficult course on the Web.com Tour, for reference.
Look for players who are quality total drivers of the ball and adept with their short irons. Given the size and speed of the greens, a measure of quality scrambling and strokes gained: around-the-greens ought to be added to the mix above and beyond the usual strokes gained: metrics.
If you want to go chalk…
Don’t overthink it. The pricing this week allows you to take Rickie Fowler or Patrick Reed and stay pretty balanced throughout the rest of your lineup. While OWGR numbers aren’t everything (or much, in some people’s minds) they remain a good indicator of pedigree. Rickie Fowler is ninth in the world. Patrick Reed is 17th. (Justin Thomas is ninth, for the record). Nobody else in the field is inside the top 25. You’ve got to lean on pedigree at a new course, so don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on any of the above.
Top-of-the-Line Considerations
Rickie Fowler: $12,000
The most expensive player in the field, Fowler will no doubt be owned in the 20 percent range. With good reason as Rickie arrives with top-10 finishes at the Memorial (which many consider a corollary course to this week’s venue) and the U.S. Open. 12th in strokes gained: approach, 21st in strokes gained: around-the-green, and seventh in strokes gained: putting. He’s fourth in birdie average.
Patrick Reed: $11,100
P. Reed arrives at TPC Potomac on the heels of a top-10 finish at the Travelers Championship and a top 10 at the U.S. Open. Mining Reed’s stats for strong signs won’t return gold, as we’ve discussed, since you need to throw out the first three-quarters of this year as he was playing with clubs that were all over the place in terms of loft and lie. Thus he didn’t have the tools for the job (which remains unbelievable).
Birdie Brigade
Birdies are the name of the game in GPP. Here are the field leaders in birdie or better percentage and their seasonal rank (BoB%)
1. Justin Thomas: $10,900
4. Rickie Fowler: $12,000
10. Tony Finau: $9,100
11. Luke List: $6,900
17. Brendan Steele: $8,900
23. Kyle Stanley: $7,600
Recommended Lineup
Kevin Chappell: $9,300
A strategy both conservative (balanced lineup) and aggressive (fading the two “best” players in the field as they’ll be the highest owned) begins with Kevin Chappell in the anchor position. Chappel tied for fourth at the FedEx St. Jude and for 23rd at the U.S. Open in his most recent action. He’s 39th on tour in strokes gained: approach and 33rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green. 12th in strokes gained: off-the-tee at Erin Hills, Chappell is hitting the ball well right now.
Tony Finau: $9,100
A birdie machine (10th on Tour), Tony Finau is one of the best players in the field statistically. He’s fifth in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 28th in strokes gained: approach, fifth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He tied for 17th at the Memorial in his most recent action.
Brendan Steele: $8,900
The Californian has done quality work recently, tying for 13th at the U.S. Open and tying for 14th at the Travelers Championship. He’s 16th on Tour in birdie average and inside the top 50 in all of his strokes gained stats except putting. Fifth in total driving. Probably $200 or $300 underpriced this week.
Kyle Stanley: $7,600
Stanley didn’t do his best work at the Travelers Championship, but he still has three top 30 showings in his last five starts, including a tie for sixth at the Memorial. He’s sixth in strokes gained: off-the-tee, fourth in strokes gained: approach, eighth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 20th in strokes gained total. Add “20th in birdie average” to this portfolio, and you’ve got a heckuva player at $7,600.
Si Woo Kim: $7,500
Kim is 27th in strokes gained: around-the-green, which will serve him well at this venue. At Erin Hills, he was eighth in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and he tied for 13th in total strokes gained. Three starts prior to his tie for 13th at the U.S. Open, Kim won The Players Championship.
Kevin Tway: $7,500
Something of a DFS darling this season, Kevin Tway is 33rd in strokes gained: off-the-tee this season. Maker of three of his last four cuts, Kevin, son of Bob, tied for 43rd at the Travelers his last time out. Look for him to put himself in position this week. 55th in strokes gained: total is an entirely respectable ranking in this, shall we say “diluted,” field.
Ben Alberstadt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ben, check out his archive and follow him @BenAlberstadt.
