Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week.
The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight six statistics from Week 16 you should know as we head into the championship week.
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KEELAN COLE ACCUMULATED 102 YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
Keelan Cole had 186 receiving yards for the @Jaguars today. The Texans had 186 total yards in the game.
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 17, 2017
Cole caught seven of nine targets for 186 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Texans secondary. He had an opportunity to shine after Marqise Lee injured his ankle in the first quarter. Cole played 74 percent of the Jaguars’ offensive snaps and was targeted on 17 percent of them.
He generated 5.33 yards per route run according to Pro Football Focus. Ian Rapoport, of the NFL Network, mentioned via Twitter that Marqise Lee is expected to return “by the playoffs or sooner.” If he misses Week 16, then Cole can be viewed as a WR3 in a plus matchup against the 49ers secondary.
TODD GURLEY AVERAGED 4.14 YARDS AFTER CONTACT PER ATTEMPT
Larry Johnson in 2006 was the last player to rush for 140 yards and 3 TD vs the Seahawks in a game. Todd Gurley just did that in the 1st half. pic.twitter.com/MrR0GHQjFZ
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 17, 2017
Gurley’s masterful performance propelled many fantasy owners to the championship round, but crushed the dreams of those who faced him. The stat above was courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Gurley had 21 rushing attempts for 152 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks. He also caught passes for 28 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Two of Gurley’s rushing attempts were 15 yards or more. He leads the NFL in touchdowns with 17. Gurley is averaging 16 rushing attempts, 80 rushing yards, 5.1 targets, 3.9 receptions, and 48.1 receiving yards per games over the seven. He remains an elite RB1 against the Titans defense this week.
ROB GRONKOWSKI LED ALL TIGHT ENDS IN AIR YARDS WITH 151
.@RobGronkowski joins Tony Gonzalez & Jason Witten as the only tight ends in NFL history with four 1,000-yard receiving seasons. #GoPats pic.twitter.com/kKaALDLQ9g
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 18, 2017
Gronkowski caught nine of 13 targets for a career-high 168 receiving yards while producing 4.94 yards per route run according to Pro Football Focus. His 315 receiving yards in the last two games are the most by any tight end in a two-game span since 1970 according to Pro Football Reference.
The only other tight ends with 100 or more Air Yards in Week 15 were Evan Engram (115) and Greg Olsen (114). Gronkowski has had 94 receiving yards or a touchdown in 10 of 12 career games against the Bills according to Pro Football Reference.
CAM NEWTON HAD A QUARTERBACK RATING OF 128
Panthers QB Cam Newton has 2 games this season with 4 pass TD and 50+ rushing yards (Week 10 vs MIA & Week 15 vs GB)
Newton is the first player since at least 1950 to have multiple games with 4+ pass TD and 50+ rushing yards within a season@Panthers
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 18, 2017
Newton completed 20 of 31 passes for 242 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers. He also added 14 rushing attempts for 58 yards. Newton has generated 50 rushing yards or more in three straight games.
He has had five or more rushing touchdowns every season since 2011 according to Pro Football Reference. Newton will have an opportunity to replicate this performance and help fantasy players win championships as the Panthers face off against Buccaneers.
QUICK HITS
Sterling Shepard set a career-high in targets with 16 and was very efficient with a Receiver Air Conversion Ratio or RACR of 1.09. It is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. Shepard can be viewed as a WR2 against the Cardinals.
Devonta Freeman forced six missed tackles against the Buccaneers according to Pro Football Focus. This was his first game with 100 or more yards from scrimmage since Week 3 and only his third this season.
Freeman had seven games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage last season according to NFL Research. He can be viewed as an RB1 against the Saints this week.
New Orleans Saints WR @Cantguardmike joins @OBJ_3 as the only players in @NFLhistory with 90+ receptions & 1,000+ receiving yards in each of their first two seasons@Saints
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 17, 2017
The only wide receivers with more targets than Michael Thomas (42) over the last four weeks are DeAndre Hopkins (53), Antonio Brown (48), and Keenan Allen (44). He remains an elite WR1.
Marquise Goodwin accumulated 164 Air Yards. He has been targeted 33 times over the last three weeks which has resulted in 319 receiving yards. Goodwin can be viewed as a low-end WR2 against the Jaguars.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Next week I will wrap up this column for the 2017 season by providing an overview. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
