Saturday features two Wild Card games and the Falcons will head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams for the nightcap (8:15 PM ET). The fact that the Rams are favored against the Falcons shows just how much things have changed over the course of one season. One one side, Matt Ryan was last season’s MVP leading a prolific offense to a near Super Bowl title. On the other side, we have Jared Goff who looked like he was never going to live up to his draft position, only to be shown the light by new head coach Sean McVay. In a similar turnaround, Todd Gurley is in the running for MVP this season under McVay and these two offenses have completely done a 180.
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Can the Falcons make it passed the Wild Card round without Kyle Shanahan behind the offense? Are the Rams going to keep their improbable turnaround going with the youngest head coach in the league? Find out how the experts believe the teams will do against the spread.
More Game Picks:
Titans at Chiefs (-8) | Bills at Jaguars (-8.5) | Panthers at Saints (-6)
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Atlanta Falcons (+5) |
Los Angeles Rams (-5) |
46%of Experts |
54%of Experts |
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“The Rams have proven all year long that they’re the better team, but the Falcons were in the Super Bowl a year ago and have the ability to hang with anyone. I can see the Rams winning in the end, but they’re still a very young team with very little playoff experience. Trusting Jared Goff in his playoff debut doesn’t come easy, either.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “The Rams sport the better offense and defense in this matchup. But the Falcons have 1 edge that I think will at least keep this one close: Experience. Atlanta returns much of the same roster that went to last year’s Super Bowl. The Rams, on the other hand, have just 6 players with NFL experience.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “The Rams are legit, but Atlanta has the talent to make another deep run. This game should be close.”
– Dalton Del Don (Yahoo! Sports) “The Falcons are the road team that has the best chance to win in the Wild Card Round. They have a better QB and WRs than the Rams. Their defense improved in the second half of the season. We shall not underestimate the playoff experience. It’s going to be a close one.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy) “The Falcons have experience on their side, although not always the best kind of experience (cough, 28-3, cough), but the Rams have better coaching, more confidence and a white-hot Todd Gurley. Atlanta’s defense has played well of late, enough to get me to take the points.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post) “I just don’t trust the Rams in their first playoff action in several seasons. The Falcons are a seasoned team with a much improved defense. I think they are going to be tough to beat in this one – even on the road.”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports) “The Falcons have a chip on their shoulder and are trying to correct their fourth-quarter meltdown performance from last years Super Bowl. I like the Rams in this one but feel it’ll be a close field goal tight game. I’ll take the Falcons and the Points.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “This is the first playoff trip for most of the Rams, including the coach, while the Falcons are coming off of an NFC championship. The Falcons might be better prepared here and have an underrated defense, especially against the run.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts) “Straight and to the point: I think the fact that Sam Ficken, and not Greg Zuerlein, is kicking for the Rams is what sways this line toward Atlanta.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “As impressive as the Rams have looked this season, don’t underestimate Atlanta. The Falcons bring to Los Angeles both the playmakers and postseason experience to not only keep it close, but potentially pull of an upset.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football) “I don’t feel good about this pick, as I like the Rams to win, but think the Falcons keep it close. I give Sean McVay the edge at home, but still think it comes down to a field goal.”
– Staff Rankings (The Fake Football) “I think the Rams will pull this one out after essentially having a bye week to rest up before the playoffs, but the Falcons playoff experience should help them at least keep this close against the new guys. Atlanta hasn’t looked right all season, so I’d be surprised if they turn things around now, but the Rams inexperience should at least help keep this close.”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “While the Rams should be able to pull this game off, the lack of experience is their biggest downfall, whereas the Falcons just made a run to the Super Bowl last year. This game should be one of the closer ones this weekend.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros) “If you are looking for the one Wild Card upset then give the Falcons a long look. They have much more playoff experience than the surprising Rams while the Rams possess the weakest home field advantage of any of the playoff teams without a distinct crowd or weather edge. Matt Ryan and the Falcons know how to keep games close with four of their six losses coming by six points or less. Also if the game comes down to the kicking game, the Falcons have a distinct advantage with Matt Bryant while the Rams will have to rely on Sam Ficken following the Greg Zuerlein injury. This should also be the highest scoring game of the week as I expect it to exceed the 48.5 Vegas total.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2) “The Rams have been a terrific story this season but I expect this game to come down to a field goal as the Falcons have more playoff experience.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice) “The Falcons aren’t anywhere near as efficient or high-powered as they were last year, but they have the experience. A team motivated to slip into the playoffs and out to prove last year wasn’t a fluke is tough to overcome given the lack of experience for the Rams.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) “First-time starting quarterbacks in the playoffs are 11-26 against the spread in the past 15 years. I don’t fully trust Jared Goff, especially with Sean McVay making his pre-snap reads for him.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball) “Feels like any of the NFC teams playing in the Wild Card round could truly win this weekend and beyond. That certainly includes the reigning conference champions. While Los Angeles can lean on running back Todd Gurley, Atlanta has a ground game that faces the NFL’s 28th ranked run defense not to mention wide receiver Julio Jones.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic) – Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
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“Gurley will hurt the Falcons through the air and in the ground. The Freeman injury also hurts the Falcons chances significantly.”
– Andrew Ferris (Fantasy Hot Read) “I think the Rams are going to blast the Falcons. They’re healthier, they’re more explosive offensively, they’re used to playing on grass and their defense seems to be getting a little bit better.”
– Dave Richard (CBS Sports) “Matt Ryan hasn’t been good this year, I do not expect that to change all of the sudden this week as the Rams and their high powered offense will be too much for the Falcons.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox) “I’ll take the Rams to make a statement at home. The Falcons have yet to put together a “complete” game this season and while they have the playoff experience, it will not matter in LA.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “The Rams were the feel-good story of the year. First-year head coach Sean McVay breathed new life into the Rams, specifically into the offense. If Trumaine Johnson and the defense can keep Julio Jones from taking the game over then the Rams should be able to win this one easily and continue their fairy tale Cinderella story.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “Freeman looking questionable, the new look Rams should jump out early and ride the wave.”
– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “Is it weird to think the once-mighty Falcons offense doesn’t have enough fire power to keep pace in this game? Atlanta hasn’t topped 24 points since Week 12 and Matt Ryan hasn’t had a multi-touchdown game since November 20th. Meanwhile, the Rams were averaging 32.5 points per game in the five contests preceding Week 17’s rest-fest, with Jared Goff playing extremely well and Todd Gurley putting up video-game numbers as of late. I look for that trend to continue this weekend, with a comfortable victory for Los Angeles.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “This is the first meeting of these teams with Sean McVey as Rams coach. The one thing I have noticed consistently about the Rams this season is their first rate game preparation. Ready to play and meeting every challenge. A rested and hungry Aaron Donald is something I just have to see. The Falcons are 1-3 in their last four as away underdogs in January.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “The Rams are only 4-4 at home this year and can’t match the Falcons for playoff experience, but I don’t think Atlanta can match L.A.’s offensive firepower.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “Steve Sarkisian. Hey, let’s take all the plays that worked so well last year – like the passes to the backs – and throw them in the trash.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) “I spent too long this season doubting the Los Angeles Rams. Their defense is legit and their offense has been a revelation with coach Sean McVay. Atlanta has to go across the country to play a quality team that had one of the best point differentials in the league after just playing a grueling game while the Rams rested starters.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “The spread in this game has tightened the most since it’s line was first posted. However, the uncertainty around Freeman actually leads me to believe the Rams might win this one easily.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “The Falcons will have their hands full this week, going up against a rested Todd Gurley who compiled 2093 yards from scrimmage in 15 games. Matt Ryan just does not look comfortable in the Sarkisian offense, and will face one of the best front sevens that put up 48 sacks this year.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball) “The line movement in this contest from an open of Rams -5 to Rams now -6 1/2 suggests a big win from Todd Gurley and company.”
– Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) “The Rams haven’t been great at home, but it’s difficult to bet against their incredible offense at this point. The Falcons defense has played well of late, but they aren’t quite elite, and Atlanta simply does not have the offense to keep up. Likely playing from behind, I’d expect Atlanta to be unable to rely on their running game, and have difficulty putting up significant points as they quickly have to become one-dimensional.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros) “The Rams on average have outperformed the spread by 7.19 points per game, whereas the Falcons have underperformed it by 1.69. That’s a market-based difference of 8.88 points — and that doesn’t take into account that the Rams are at home. Against a Falcons defense ranking last in the league in time of possession (2:57) and plays (6.3) per drive, the Rams could crush.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyLabs) “If you look at Football Outsiders’ Total DVOA, the difference between the Rams and the Falcons (13 spots) equals the Jags-Bills split and is wider than the Chiefs-Titans gap. Yet the Vegas line stands significantly smaller. Give me the clearly better team here, easily.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “The Falcons come into this Wild Card week with something to prove. The bad news is, they just lost LG Andy Levitre to the IR with a torn tricep. This is a big deal and will surely rattle their game script. On the bright side, I’d expect this to be the game of the week, with both teams’ offense and defense taking advantage of scoring opportunities. In the end, I expect the Rams to cover just enough in their win.”
– Robert Waziak (Pyromaniac) “This is the game that I’m looking the most forward to. Anything higher than 5 points, and I may have gone the other way with this one. Todd Gurley is just playing out of his mind, and Jared Goff has multiple weapons that will prove to be too much for the Atlanta defense.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “The rams defense is playing some fantastic ball right now. The Falcons can’t put eight in the box.”
– Chris Heil (Fantasy Sports Rants) “Freeman, Julio and several other Falcons are banged up while the Rams are rested and ready to roll. Plus, Atlanta has scored just 88 points over their last 5 weeks.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros) “Atlanta simply doesn’t possess the same firepwoer as a year ago and that would prove to be a disaster against the Rams’ high-octane offense.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “This spread disrespects the Rams, who are one of the NFL’s four or five best teams. They’re strong in all aspects of the game – as good as Todd Gurley has been for the offense, Aaron Donald is a monster. They should roll the Falcons.”
– John Halpin (RotoWire.com) “The Rams season has been amazing under the new coaching staff.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) |
* Lock symbols represent the expert’s most confident game pick.
Thank you to the experts for giving their against the spread picks. Enjoy the playoffs!
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