It’s Wild Card weekend and kicking off the festivities will be the Tennessee Titans who hit the road to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The first game of the playoffs takes place on Saturday (4:35 pm ET) and with an eight-point spread, expectations are for the Chiefs to take care of business at home. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise though with the Titans limping into the playoffs after losing three out of their last four games whereas the Chiefs are riding a four-game winning streak heading into the postseason.
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History doesn’t factor much into this matchup, but for anyone saying Mariota has no chance to win a game on the road in K.C., it happened during Week 15 last year. Granted, he didn’t throw any touchdowns that game, but a win is a win and the combination of DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry gave the Chiefs all they could handle in that game. On the flip side, we’re seeing MVP type play from Alex Smith who’s complimented by a rookie running back that just won the rushing title (Kareem Hunt). He’s also got Travis Kelce who is cementing himself as one of the top tight ends in the league. The combination of those three helped make the Chiefs the No. 6 ranked offense in points per game. Read on to get the experts’ picks against the spread.
More Game Picks:
Falcons at Rams (-5) | Bills at Jaguars (-8.5) | Panthers at Saints (-6)
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Tennessee Titans (+8) |
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) |
30%of Experts |
70%of Experts |
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“The CDC is reporting widespread influenza activity in the Midwest, and as you might imagine, the Chiefs have been hit hard with it. This news paired with Derrick Henry starting is enough to expect the Titans to at least cover the spread.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros) “The Chiefs are 2-6 against the spread at home in January since 1993. This includes 0-4 in their last four since 2010 where they were favorite three times with a line of -6.5 or less. The Titans, despite making the playoffs, still seem like underachievers in 2017. They should be able to have enough to stay with the Chiefs, but a rally to get them within one score is what I’ll expect – no more clock after that.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “Kansas City’s offense has been quite tame at home, where Alex Smith threw just eight touchdowns all season. The Titans excel at shutting down the run and should be able to keep this game within striking distance, maybe losing by 3-7 points.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts) “8 pts is a lot for the Chiefs to cover, and while KC has more talent I think the Titans should be able to keep it within a touchdown.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice) “The inconsistencies that we’ve seen from the Chiefs since around Week 6 is enough for me to lose confidence in them as 8-point favorites. Sure, the Titans are no team to write home about, and the Chiefs have home-field advantage in what should be a very cold game, but this game should be a lot closer than the spread warrants.”
– Robert Waziak (Pyromaniac) “The Chiefs have a poor defense – 32nd in run defense DVOA, poor secondary – so if the Titans need a back-door cover, they should get it.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball) – Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
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“The Chiefs season has been incredible. Two hot streaks that sandwiched a terrible stretch. Chiefs should have their way with a terrible Titans secondary.”
– Andrew Ferris (Fantasy Hot Read) “Titans have been one of the worse teams vs the pass and going to KC in January is a tough place to win a game.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox) “I just don’t trust the Titans. Getting a win at Arrowhead is also ridiculously difficult, while Andy Reid and co. eventually have to find some real success in the playoffs. I doubt a forever struggling Marcus Mariota is going to keep them from doing that for at least round one. If this game was in Tennessee I’d consider it staying close, but I think the Chiefs win this one easily.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “The Chiefs went 6-2 at home this season, out-scoring their opponents by 11.7 points in those 6 wins. The Titans, meanwhile, went 3-5 on the road. QB Marcus Mariota was especially bad away from Tennessee, tossing 5 TDs and 11 INTs in 7 games.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “Kansas City should be able to handle the mediocre Titans offense and run away from their defense. They’ll cover.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “First off, Kansas City has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and the home crowd will be extra rowdy in a playoff atmosphere. As was the case throughout the 2017 season, the Titans will have to lean heavily on their defense to stop a top-five total offense in the Chiefs. It was an offense that committed a staggeringly low 11 turnovers all year. On top of the home-field advantage and play-making offense, Kansas City boasts one of the best-kept secrets in the league in kicker Harrison Butker, not to mention the postseason experience. The Chiefs are heavy favorites for a reason — several reasons.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “The Chiefs are tough at home, and the Titans were outscored this year.”
– Dalton Del Don (Yahoo! Sports) “The Chiefs only lost two home games this season, they are going to exploit their home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. Their offense has awaken and looks in good shape. The Titans are the weakest of all the Wild Card teams this year with an ineffective offense. Marcus Mariota has thrown more INTs than TDs this season.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy) “I’m concerned that there’s too much groupthink involved in the “Terrible Titans have no business being in the playoffs” narrative — but I also happen to believe wholeheartedly in that narrative. Andy Reid is capable of screwing this up, but I think Alex Smith can and will throw all over Tennessee.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post) “Neither team is great defensively, but Kansas City has more weapons on offense and seemed to find a grove again with Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt over the last month. Home field advantage is a big difference-maker for me in this one, and Tennessee’s limitations on offense lead me to believe the Chiefs will cover the 8-point spread.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “Kansas City has had a rollercoaster season but remains one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. They’ll handle an underwhelming Titans team at Arrowhead.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “The Titans are limping in and the streaky Chiefs are riding hot. Those trends will continue.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “The Chiefs are 6-2 at home and enter the Playoffs with a 4 game winning streak. The Titans have been flat on offense and will likely be without the services of running back DeMarco Murray. While I’m confident Kanas City wins this one, eight-points seems like a lot. I’m going to take the Chiefs and the points, but this is one I may regret with some late 4th quarter garbage time.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “The Titans are 3-5 on the road this season, and one of the wins was an overtime affair against the Browns. They aren’t winning at Arrowhead this weekend, and as shaky as Marcus Mariota has been over the last month, it seems unlikely they’ll keep it close.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “Mike Mularkey. Also, the Chiefs plugged their leaks nicely about a month ago, finished strong.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) “The Chiefs have outscored their opponents 85-41 over their past three home games. The Titans, limp into Arrowhead having lost three of their last four, being led by a quarterback who finished 2017 passing for 3,232 yards with more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13). With their lead back looking highly questionable to play and the Chiefs healthy and rested with their key players seeing limited action in week 17, look for the surging Chiefs to be too much for the Titans, winning by double digits.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football) “Kansas City is no joke. The Titans just don’t have the firepower needed to keep pace in this one. I think the Chiefs will walk away double digits winners.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “This is a pretty big number, but Tennessee just doesn’t have the offensive fire power to stay within striking distance on the road in Arrowhead.”
– Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) “Arrowhead Stadium should be an incredible home-field advantage as always this weekend, and I think it will show up in the final score. The Titans are solid against the run but have struggled to contain the pass all season, and that has somehow become Kansas City’s best weapon this year. The Chiefs look to have rekindled their offensive rhythm from early in the season and the Titans are not built for huge comebacks. I’d expect the Chiefs to get out to a big lead early and then easily keep their distance.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros) “Kansas City has gotten back on track offensively, with an average of 28.6 points over their last five games, while the Titans have averaged 18.4 points during that span. The weather looks like it will be good in Kansas City and I expect Alex Smith to exploit the Titans weak secondary in an easy win.”
– Staff Rankings (The Fake Football) “Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play, and Marcus Mariota is tied for the league lead in road interceptions (so the Titans are already not starting off on good foot). While Kansas City struggled during the middle of the season, they finished almost as strong as they started and boast one of the league’s most dynamic offensive trios in Travis Kelce, Tyreke Hill, and Kareem Hunt. Alex Smith may not be the MVP-level player he was for the first six weeks of the season, but he is still one of the most mistake-free players in the league and should keep the Titans from covering.”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “The Titans enter the playoffs with the league’s No. 18 offense and No. 21 defense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. They’ll face a Chiefs squad that ranks 4th in offense and 30th on defense, and the latter unit toughened up late in the year. K.C. snatched 12 takeaways over just the final 4 weeks and held 5 of its final 7 opponents to 16 points or fewer.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “Opposing teams simply don’t score at Arrowhead Stadium, plain and simple. No opponent has scored more than 21 points there since Week 1 of 2016, and lets not pretend the Titans have some high-powered offense.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros) “I’ll give the 8 points and take the overall better team. Tennessee may be able to slow down the KC running game a bit, but Alex Smith Shouldn’t have a problem throwing on them.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “The chiefs will be playing at home and have some major weapons to blow this game wide open.”
– Chris Heil (Fantasy Sports Rants) “The Titans’ offense looks lethargic right now and despite making the playoffs, coach Mike Mularkey could be fighting for his job.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “I don’t trust the Chiefs, but I hate the Titans. They’re a below average team, a paper tiger. How in the world would anyone bet them at Arrowhead, even with eight points?”
– John Halpin (RotoWire.com) “It sure seems like folks don’t believe in the Titans. Count me among them. Losing three of their last four —
and DeMarco Murray to injury — doesn’t help. The Chiefs defense is opportunistic and facing Marcus Mariota, who threw the third most interceptions (15) in the league. That’s a decent amount of points to give up while backing Andy Reid and Alex Smith, but let’s go for the team with postseason experience and more playmakers.” – Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic) “Kansas City should blow out the Titans who are a bit banged up.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) |
* Lock symbols represent the expert’s most confident game pick.
Thank you to the experts for giving their against the spread picks. Enjoy the playoffs!
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