Welcome back to the playoffs Buffalo, it’s been a long 17 years. Sunday football kicks off (1:05 PM ET) with the Bills heading to Jacksonville and if the Vegas sportsbooks are accurate, it’s going to be a short-lived return. The team may be without LeSean McCoy and they weren’t exactly a lock for the playoffs heading into week 17. The matchup is far from ideal either as they’ll take on a Jaguars defense that gave up the second fewest points all season.
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Like many of the other Wild Card games, past results aren’t a factor with these teams. In fact, a key player from the Bills (Marcell Dareus) is now on the Jaguars after a midseason trade and the coach of the Jags was the coach of the Bills back in 2013. Instead, the bigger question will surely be which Blake Bortles will we see on Sunday? Even with the large spread, the experts are leaning towards the Jags. Find out why below.
More Game Picks:
Titans at Chiefs (-8) | Falcons at Rams (-5) | Panthers at Saints (-6)
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Buffalo Bills (+8.5) |
Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) |
32%of Experts |
68%of Experts |
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“The Jags will win but the Bills defense will make it hard for them to score a bunch of points.”
– Dave Richard (CBS Sports) “The Bills should make a game of it and keep it closer than the Jags prefer. I still like Jacksonville to win the game, but not to cover.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “We’ve heard the old adage plenty in the realm of sports: defense wins championships. There was no better defense in all the land this year than the Jaguars. If Jacksonville’s defense can play the way it did throughout the regular season and if Blake Bortles can continue to minimize his mistakes then the Jaguars should be victorious. That being said, the Bills match up well enough with the Jaguars and their defense will make enough plays to keep Jacksonville from covering the spread.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “I’d feel better about this pick if I knew Shady McCoy was definitely going to play, but regardless, I’m not going to pass up a chance to bet against Blake Bortles, who has prepped for the playoffs by looking like his old, ultra-shaky self in the Jags’ past two games.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post) “The Bills had everything fall into place on Sunday to break a long playoff drought and they’ll use that momentum to keep things close against a tough Jags team.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “I don’t like the Bills’ chances on the road with a hobbled or sidelined Shady (to go with an already hobbled and sidelined receiving corps), but this Jaguars team doesn’t look capable of a (near) double digit win against any opponent. As long as they stay out of their own way, they should advance, but I’m expecting a close game.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “The Bills aren’t going to put up many points against the nearly impregnable Jacksonville defense, and moving the ball will become an even more arduous chore if LeSean McCoy doesn’t play. Still, I think the Bills can keep it close. As good as that Jaguars defense is — and this might be one of the best defenses we’ve seen since the 2000 Ravens — there’s no way in hell I’m laying 8.5 points with a team quarterbacked by Blake Bortles.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “I’d feel better about this pick if I knew LeSean McCoy’s status. I made a habit of not betting on Blake Bortles, so I’ll just stick with that here.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts) “The Bills are energized coming into the playoffs and while I think they’ll exit in the first round, I think it will be closer that the specified spread.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “I don’t trust either of these teams, so I’m going to bet against them both and say this one will stay close. The Bills may be in trouble if LeSean McCoy is unable to play, but they’ll do everything they can to get him on the field as this is their first playoff appearance since the Lincoln administration. If McCoy can play, I’d expect Buffalo to at least be able to keep things close against Bortles and company (though I still think Jacksonville pulls this out).”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “Blake Bortles posted a career-best INT rate but reminded us that he’s still Blake Bortles with 5 INTs over the final 2 games. Buffalo’s secondary is easily the strongest piece on that entire team. Doug Marrone knows playoff matchups swing on turnovers, and I think there’s too much turnover potential in the Jacksonville offense to count on the Jags with such a big line in what looks likely to be a lower-scoring game.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “This game makes me the most nervous with LeSean McCoy not being 100%. I still think the Jags won this but it will be close.”
– Chris Heil (Fantasy Sports Rants) “The Jaguars are great, why, because they had three home consecutive wins against the Colts, Texans and a Seahawk team missing four of the top five players in their back seven? Blake Bortles should not be favored by this much over a competent opponent.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball) |
“I hope I’m wrong but it’ll be borderline impossible for the Bills to score this weekend.”
– Andrew Ferris (Fantasy Hot Read) “McCoy won’t be at 100% even if he does play. Jags D is way too good without a healthy McCoy.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox) “I have a very weird feeling that Blake Bortles could implode and that the Bills continue their magical ride. But that’s fairytale nonsense if we look at this logically. Instead, the Bills are a one-dimensional sinking ship that lucked their way into this game. Rattling Bortles is their ticket, but scoring on the Jags and/or stopping Leonard Fournette could be their downfall.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “On one side of the ball, we have an offense whose best weapon will be sidelined or limited. On the other, we have the league’s #1 rushing offense vs. its 29th-ranked rushing defense.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “The Jaguars have the best defense in the NFL. Calais Campbell should be considered for DPOY award. It is hard to trust in Blake Bortles to win a playoff game, but the Bills have allowed 838 passing yards and 4 TDs in the last 4 games. LeSean McCoy is banged up, and that is terrible news for their hopes.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy) “Buffalo’s return to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years has been a great story… but I think the Bills’ stay will be short lived. A matchup of the league’s best pass defense (JAC) against one of the worst passing offenses (BUF) puts a ton a pressure on Buffalo’s running game. And while I think LeSean McCoy will play through his ankle injury, I don’t think he can do enough to keep the Bills in this game. On the other side of the ball, however, the Jaguars have seemingly been teeing up Leonard Fournette for this moment, and I think the rookie will run all over the league’s 29th-ranked rush defense, which allowed an NFL-high 22 rushing touchdowns in 2017.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “With LeSean McCoy playing at less than 100% and the Bills having no viable alternative ground game option, Tyrod will be forced to throw into the teeth of the beast and it won’t be pretty.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros) “This game is a battle of teams who have not been to the playoffs for a long time. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover this well on defense alone. The only weapon the Bills can rely on is a less than 100% LeSean McCoy at best. It would take a miracle greater than Music City going in their favor this time for the Bills to overcome a fierce defensive unit and a Jaguars offensive team efficient enough to cause them fits in the secondary.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “The Jaguars have the leagues best defense and rank 1st in the NFL for rushing yards per game. The Bills have been brutal at stopping the run and their star player LeSean McCoy is extremely banged up. I think this game will likely get ugly, Jag’s win big.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “Hardest game on the card. I think Buffalo is just happy to be here.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) “Even though we’ve seen Jacksonville’s stellar defense show a couple cracks in the armor, Buffalo doesn’t have Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and, more seriously, they have LeSean McCoy operating at less than 100 percent, if at all. Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette and Allen Hurns are both healthy to give Jacksonville’s offense some depth. Anything over a touchdown makes for a tough sell, but I don’t think Tyrod Taylor can drag that team to a cover.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Bills give the Jags a game, especially if LeSean McCoy isn’t active in this one.”
– Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) “It’s hard to imagine that this game will be close. LeSean McCoy won’t be nearly at full strength even if he plays, and the Bills’ pass protection can’t stand up to the Jaguars’ edge rushers. Blake Bortles probably won’t need to do all that much, and Jacksonville should be able to rely on their defense and run game, and cruise to an easy victory.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros) “Jacksonville rushed a league-best 141.4 yards per game this season. Buffalo gave up the fourth-most yards per game on the ground and league-high 22 rushing touchdowns. Add in the fact that the Bills may be without LeSean McCoy (even if he plays, he’s not 100 percent) and the Jags’ D should have no problems shutting down the one-dimensional Bills’ offense.”
– Dan Clasgens (Pro Football Focus) “The Jags have outperformed the spread by 6.75 PPG, whereas the Bills have underperformed it by 1.56. That market-based difference of 8.31 points is in line with the current line (Jags -8.5), but it doesn’t take into account that Jacksonville is at home or that running back LeSean McCoy (ankle) is injured. Even if he plays, he seems likely to be at significantly less than full capacity. Running backs often don’t count for much in the spread, but McCoy is not a traditional back: He gives the Bills their identity. He’s averaged 1,100 yards rushing per year for the Bills over the past three seasons, and this year he leads the team with 77 targets and 59 receptions. He’s started every game this season, but in 2015-16 he missed four games. During that time the Bills averaged 25.6 PPG and 2.15 points per drive with him but just 17.4 and 1.58 without him.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyLabs) “This is not a good matchup for the Bills, especially with LeSean McCoy not at 100 percent. Buffalo’s weakness is the run and that is the Jaguars’ strength, whereas Jacksonville is slightly worse against the run than pass and that’s where McCoy would come in handy. Unless Shady gets some practice in, I don’t have much faith that Buffalo can keep this game close.”
– Staff Rankings (The Fake Football) “The Bills never really stood a chance in this game, but not having LeSean McCoy is a death sentence for their offense. The run opens things for their passing game, not the other way around. Even if McCoy plays, he’ll be at less than 100 percent against a Jaguars defense that has been compared to the early-2000’s Ravens.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros) “The Jaguars defense should have no trouble shutting down Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice) “I want the Bills to win. You want the Bills to win. Hell, even Shahid Khan might want the Bills to win, but it’s just not going to happen. To make matters worse, LeSean McCoy is still day-to-day with his ankle injury and is far from a lock from playing on Sunday. As for the Jaguars, Leonard Fournette should be a massive workhorse in this game and should find pay dirt at least once. This game won’t be pretty for Bills fans.”
– Robert Waziak (Pyromaniac) “Taking the team with Blake Bortles as the QB and giving 8.5 points is definitely a risk. The Jaguars haven’t been playing too well the past couple of weeks, but that defense is just too good. The Bills don’t even feel like a playoff team to me, and their best player (McCoy) won’t be 100% if he plays.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “Congratulations to the Bills for finally making the playoffs, but this will be short-lived. LeSean McCoy will be less than 100% if he plays and even he won’t make much of a difference against this defense.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “I’d bet the Jags even if LeSean McCoy was at full strength. The Bills are 29th against the rush, while the Jags run as well as any team in the NFL. A shutout wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.”
– John Halpin (RotoWire.com) “Blake Bortles in the favorite role seems like a misprint. It’s certainly understandable why anyone would think so. Yet the Jaguars passer had seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions over his final three home games with a QB rating of 119 or higher in all three games. Rather than run against Marcell Dareus, running back Leonard Fournette calls the ex-Bill a teammate. Factor in LeSean McCoy dealing with an ankle injury and that Jaguars defense and, wow, Jacksonville and the points it is.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic) – Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
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* Lock symbols represent the expert’s most confident game pick.
Thank you to the experts for giving their against the spread picks. Enjoy the playoffs!
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