Punting categories isn’t a strategy I ever deploy in roto leagues, re-draft or keeper. In head-to-head, re-draft leagues, I enter drafts with the anticipation of building a mostly balanced team. However, as someone who frequently preaches the importance of flexibility and value, it behooves gamers to be willing to punt or semi-punt categories en lieu of overpaying for categories league mates overdraft. In head-to-head, keeper leagues, the keeper makeup of your own roster as well as the league as a whole will largely dictate whether or not punting categories makes sense.
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I loathe fantasy advice that relies on anecdotal experiences and doesn’t include at least some support, namely statistical when available. With that in mind, I’d suggest checking out this nearly three-year-old piece from Eno Sarris published at RotoGraphs. Eno dove into the numbers, and while the r-squared numbers in his tables have almost certainly changed to some extent, the general idea of correlation between certain statistics still applies. Punting stolen bases is a common move, and the correlation of stolen bases to the other four standard hitting categories supports that as being the top hitting category to punt.
Having said that, after unveiling the table illustrating the correlation between pitching categories, Eno pointed out that correlations are weaker between pitching stats than hitting stats. He also wondered aloud if gamers who planned to punt two categories would be best served punting two pitching categories. Eno didn’t further dive into that idea, but I believe the case for doing so, namely punting wins and saves, is a strong one.
Punting Wins and Saves
Saves are the typical pitching category punted by gamers since they’re volatile and role dependent, but wins are rather volatile, too, and they correlate weakly with strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Changes to pitcher usage since the linked article was published almost three years ago enhances the case for concentrating on the skill-based pitching categories (i.e. ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts) and punting wins and saves. Multi-inning relief specialists like Chris Devenski appear to be undervalued — at least judging by his 2017 in-season ownership rates across the industry. Sprinkling the multi-inning relief aces and non-closing relief studs into fantasy pitching staffs is a cheap way to attack ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
It’s also worth noting that starters leaving games earlier due to strict pitch counts as well as managers/front offices better understanding how much worse starting pitchers are the third time through the order opens the door to more no decisions. Last year, the MLB high for wins was 18, a total tallied by four starters. Only 17 pitchers won 15 games or more. It’s possible that you’ll still be competitive in wins in head-to-head leagues even if you don’t make a concerted effort to pony up for the inning-eating aces on MLB’s best teams! Also, the high turnover rate of closers annually creates the possibility of one or more of your stud non-closing relievers usurping the ninth inning during the season, and if you’re active on the wire, scooping newly minted closers in-season can result in a category that’s punted at draft time becoming a winnable category as the year progresses.
Gamers who opt to punt wins and saves have the added benefit of building an offensive juggernaut with a clear path to in-season improvement. That’s not to say there’s zero risk with punting wins and saves, but there are no risk-free draft strategies. Also, if things break right with the hitters delivering upon expectations, the value pitchers exceeding expectations, and some of the non-closers who were drafted emerging as closers — and/or closers being nabbed off of the waiver wire — during the year, the potential for a loaded team that’s capable of winning 10 categories exists. Those odds are seemingly lower for gamers who choose to punt stolen bases. One or two free-agent additions during the year are unlikely to lift a team out of the basement and into competitiveness in the category. The same can’t be said for adding a couple of relievers who become closers during the year, as they can lift a team into competitiveness in the saves category.
Punting In-Season
Staying on the topic of in-season moves, it’s possible to punt during the year out of necessity. Did you bank on Billy Hamilton carrying your squad in stolen bases only to lose him for a huge chunk of the season due to injury? Did one of your closers cough up his job and another suffer an injury? When those unfortunate things happen, punting might become a necessary in-season move. It’s not as ideal as a planned punt, but it can be done.
In conclusion, successfully punting requires an understanding of what you’re doing and a plan of attack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.