Welcome to another pitcher edition of Buy/Sell! As has been a theme in this column, I am going to recommend buying players who have missed time due to injury. Simply put, that is the only way you can acquire Grade A pitchers at any kind of a discount.
Yes, these players have an elevated risk of getting hurt again, but in most cases the reward outweighs the risk, particularly in shallower leagues where there are plenty of serviceable options on the waiver wire that can serve as insurance. If you’re in contention but not in first place, these are the kind of gambles you may need to take to get to the promised land.
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Players to Buy
Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Syndergaard is currently working his way back from a strained ligament in his index finger and is probably still a couple weeks away from returning. The Mets are already out of contention, so they have no reason to rush him back, but he should still return by the All-Star Break, if not earlier.
Before suffering the injury, Syndergaard’s numbers were excellent but not earth-shattering: a 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 10.58 K/9. But his peripherals suggest that his numbers should be even better than that. His .339 BABIP allowed would rank third-highest among qualified pitchers, and is due for some positive regression even though he’s given up high BABIPs the last couple years as well. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all suggest his ERA should be below 3.00, but it’s his WHIP that is likely to drop the most.
Anyone drafting Syndergaard should have factored injury risk into his draft day price, but some of his owners probably convinced themselves that this would be the season he would finally reach the 200 innings threshold. It isn’t, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be a top-10 fantasy pitcher for the stretch run. Syndergaard was a third-round pick on average in 12-team fantasy leagues, but some of his disappointed owners may be willing to give him up for much less than that. If you deal for him now, you’ll have gotten the other manager to suffer through the predictable injury and swooped in just in time to reap the reward.
Madison Bumgarner (SF)
You probably could have acquired Bumgarner for less if you traded for him before he spun eight scoreless innings against the Padres, but he may still be available at a slight discount. His first three starts after a long disabled list stay were not great, so his current numbers look unspectacular, particularly his 6.04 K/9.
Bumgarner’s K/9 rate did drop to 8.19 last year, so it’s fair to wonder if his days of striking out more than a batter per inning are behind him. But strikeouts were never really what made Bumgarner an elite fantasy asset to begin with — you’re paying for the dominant ratios he can provide. Over the last six seasons, MadBum has never had an ERA over 3.37 or WHIP above 1.11, so I’d consider those numbers to be at or near his floor.
It’s possible that the Bumgarner owner in your league has had his confidence shaken, given the amount of time Bumgarner has missed over the last two seasons and his subpar stats over a small sample size this year. If so, this could be the perfect time to acquire a pitcher who is capable of really helping your ratios in a hurry.
Rich Hill (LAD)
I know what you’re thinking, Hill is just about guaranteed to get hurt again before the season is over. He’s 38 years old and hasn’t pitched more than 136 innings in a season since 2007 — and that was the only time he ever did it!
I can’t really argue the point. It’s entirely possible that he gets hurt in his next start and doesn’t pitch again this season. But the fact remains that Hill is healthy right now, and he’s proven repeatedly that he can make a big impact in a short amount of time.
Last year, Hill was the 18th-most valuable fantasy starter in 5×5 leagues in just 135 2/3 innings. The year before, he was the 14th most-valuable fantasy starter in just 110 1/3 innings. On a per-start basis, he’s (obviously) been even better than that. His numbers this year are ugly, but the sample size is tiny and he’s looked decent in two starts since returning to the rotation on June 19. There’s no starter with top-20 upside that you’ll be able to acquire for less.
Players to Sell
Charlie Morton (HOU)
If you drafted Morton, there’s a good chance you’re doing quite well in the standings right now. Morton was the 44th pitcher off the board in fantasy drafts, but with a 2.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 11.06 K/9, he’s returned the 16th-most value in 5×5 leagues through the first three months of the season.
It’s not all sunshine and roses for Morton owners, though. His performance has noticeably tailed off in June, when he possesses a bloated 4.29 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and unsightly 6.43 BB/9. Morton should be able to get the walks under control eventually (pun definitely intended), but he’s never had an elite walk rate comparable to that of most fantasy aces. Moreover, while he’s been a bit unfortunate when it comes to homers allowed, that is more than offset but his highly favorable .257 BABIP allowed and 84.4 percent strand rate. As all of those numbers begin to normalize, looks for Morton’s ERA to land in the 3.50 range over the rest of the season.
Morton is still going to be a mixed league asset, but I would not count on him to continue being a top-20 fantasy starter. If you can get that kind of value for him, I’d be inclined to thank him for his service to my fantasy team and make the move.
Blake Snell (TB)
It might be time to worry just a tiny bit about Snell, despite his terrific start on Monday. Snell’s overall numbers look phenomenal (2.31 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.04 K/9), but he’s issued 15 walks over his last three starts, and walks were always a big problem for him prior to this season. He’s also been extremely fortunate both in terms of his BABIP allowed (.228), which is fourth-lowest in the league, and his strand rate (86.1 percent), which is fourth-highest. His current win pace (10 wins in 17 starts) is also entirely unsustainable, particularly on a rebuilding Rays team that is likely to ship out several veteran bats in the coming weeks.
To be clear, Snell should remain a major fantasy asset for the rest of the season and then be a fantasy mainstay for years. But unless you play in a dynasty league, it could be wise to sell, because his numbers have probably already peaked as far as 2018 is concerned.
Sean Newcomb (ATL)
Newcomb is another talented young pitcher who is due for some regression (and not the good kind).
Like Snell, Newcomb struggles with his control at times. While his walk rate is down from over five per nine innings in 2017 to just under four per nine innings this year, he still has the tenth-highest walk rate among qualified starters. He’s also striking out less than a batter per inning for the first time in his Major or Minor League career. Meanwhile, Newcomb’s positive results thus far have been fueled by a .256 BABIP allowed, 78.8 percent strand rate, and 7.9 percent HR/FB ratio that are all among the 20-most favorable in baseball.
Newcomb pitches for a good team in a favorable division, and his xFIP and SIERA both suggest he should maintain an ERA right around 4.00. In other words, Newcomb won’t suddenly turn into a pumpkin, but he’s also not likely to carry your team in the second half like he has in the first half.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.