Every year, there is usually a player I feel I absolutely must have. A guy I will genuinely be annoyed about if he is not on my team. Last year, that player was Tyreek Hill. As we saw and as you can imagine, in the one or two leagues where I couldn’t secure Hill’s services, I was most displeased.
This year, my must-have player is a running back and his name is Joe Mixon. There are many reasons I love Mixon. I always believed he was the best RB in the 2017 draft class, but obviously, his draft stock took a hit due to an off-the-field incident. From a talent perspective, it’s always been there. Mixon is a 75h percentile SPARQ-x athlete with blazing speed and above average agility and burst. He is also an adept pass catcher with 65 catches during his two-year college career.
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For fantasy last year, Mixon was undoubtedly a disappointment. His drafters knew (or should’ve known) they’d have to wait a few weeks before he finally took over the main RB role from the terrible Jeremy Hill and the not-a-real-workhorse Giovani Bernard. It happened, but the results were…how you say…not great, Bob.
I don’t think anyone is questioning Mixon’s talent. His third-round ADP suggests people still believe in him. They just don’t believe enough. The reason I want Mixon on as many teams as possible is that I believe he can return second and possibly even first-round value. He has elite RB1 upside based on talent. All he needs is an improved situation.
Last season, the Bengals offensive line generated a paltry 1.31 yards before contact per rush attempt. That was 10th worst in the NFL. Despite receiving no help from his blocking, Mixon displayed better than advertised burst and agility. He somehow finished 13th in the league with 1.54 yards created per carry. While Mixon’s other efficiency metrics are less than stellar, it is his yards created that stands out given how much everything about his situation was working against him.
While teams like Seattle continue to disparage logic and reason by ignoring the offensive line, Cincinnati entered this offseason with an understanding of where the problem stemmed from. In response, the Bengals did not waste a first-round pick on a running back like the Seahawks. Instead, they used that first-round selection on C Billy Price. And this was after the team had already traded for OL Cordy Glenn. The Bengals made two significant improvements to their offensive line.
Additionally, the entire Bengals offense is due for some positive regression this season. According to FootballOutsiders’ non-adjusted offensive efficiency metric, the Bengals were dead last in 2017. This could have a lot to do with the number of plays run. Per Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, the Bengals ran just 57.9 offensive plays per game, which essentially amounted to the Bengals running 14.5 games’ worth of plays, rather than 16, if we go by their average plays run over Marvin Lewis’ 14-year tenure.
This is not a team devoid of talent. Andy Dalton has proven to be a serviceable quarterback. A.J. Green is still a top 10 WR in this league. Maybe Tyler Eifert actually plays football this year? Any way you slice it, the Bengals offense has to be better this season.
Mixon enters 2018 as the clear main back. He will still lose some passing down work to Bernard, but I expect Mixon to be on the field for more of those snaps than most expect. Mixon had a 47.4% snap share in 2017. I expect that number to be above 60% this season. Additionally, Mixon has been training extra hard this offseason and has shed a little over 10 lbs. Remember when Le’Veon Bell lost weight after college? Just saying…
Combine Mixon’s talent, the Bengals’ improved offensive line, Mixon’s increased workload, and the fact that Mixon will be the primary goal-line back and this is a recipe for a true breakout season. It would not shock me to see Mixon as a mid-first-round pick in 2019 fantasy drafts. I would take Mixon as early as the second round if I had to.
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive, follow him @jasonkatz13, and listen to him on the Fantasy Forensics Podcast.
