Here’s a pair of questions I’ve been getting more frequently as the season progresses: “what defense should I ride ROS?” and “what defense should I stash for the fantasy playoffs?” These questions sound like they’re asking who the best defense is, but really they’re about schedules. There are no teams that I would start every week going forward, but it becomes more conscionable to roster two defenses as the playoffs approach. I’m very wary of evaluating schedules in the preseason because we never really know who is good that early, but at this point in the year, we’re starting to have a good idea of what teams we can target consistently. Here are a few defenses I like ROS:
- The Chicago Bears have a great schedule for the rest of the season, with the exception of weeks 14 and 15, where they face the Rams and the Packers. Unfortunately, those are the fantasy playoffs. The Broncos are my favorite team to fill in those weeks (@SF, vsCLE). If you can’t get the Broncos, Washington (vsNYG, @JAC) and the Lions (@ARI, @BUF) are also fine choices.
- The Houston Texans have a solid schedule though not as stellar as the Bears, but the only week I would really want to bench them is week 16 against the Eagles. Their worst matchups otherwise are Washington and Indianapolis.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t usable in week 1 against the Steelers, but otherwise, their worst matchups, like the Texans, are Washington and Indianapolis.
- The New England Patriots have their bye in week 11 and face Pittsburgh week 15, but the rest of their schedule is excellent. Being in the AFC East has its perks.
If your fantasy playoffs are weeks 14-16, I like:
- Denver (@SF, vsCLE, @OAK)
- Tennessee (vsJAC, @NYG, vsWAS)
- Washington (vsNYG, @JAC, @TEN)
- Detroit (@ARI, @BUF, vsMIN)
If your fantasy playoffs are just weeks 15-16, the four teams above are good. There are no teams I like for week 15-16 playoffs who I don’t like in leagues with playoffs in week 14. If your playoffs are week 15-17, the Texans (@NYJ, @PHI, vsJAC), the Rams (vsPHI, @ARI, vsSF), the Cowboys (@IND, vsTB, @NYG) and the Dolphins (@MIN, vsJAC, @BUF) are interesting.
Let’s See The Ranks
This is one of the few weeks where it feels like there’s a legitimate wealth of options at D/ST. As always, I’m happy to answer questions on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | NYJ | BUF | 37 | -7.5 | 14.75 | 2.88 | 1.52 | 0.16 | 9 | 40% |
| 2 | KC | ARI | 50 | -16.5 | 16.75 | 2.76 | 1.6 | 0.16 | 8.42 | 82% |
| 3 | PHI | DAL | 43.5 | -6 | 18.75 | 2.88 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 7.55 | 65% |
| 4 | CHI | DET | 45 | -6.5 | 19.25 | 2.68 | 1.43 | 0.16 | 7.34 | 99% |
| 5 | LAC | @OAK | 50.5 | -9.5 | 20.5 | 2.42 | 1.51 | 0.19 | 7.15 | 54% |
| 6 | GB | MIA | 47.5 | -9 | 19.25 | 2.43 | 1.5 | 0.13 | 7.06 | 23% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 7 | SF | NYG | 43.5 | -3 | 20.25 | 2.85 | 1.32 | 0.14 | 6.95 | 20% |
| 8 | NE | @TEN | 46.5 | -6.5 | 20 | 2.51 | 1.36 | 0.16 | 6.88 | 73% |
| 9 | ATL | @CLE | 51 | -4 | 23.5 | 2.9 | 1.47 | 0.15 | 6.8 | 15% |
| 10 | LAR | SEA | 51.5 | -10 | 20.75 | 2.83 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.77 | 96% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | IND | JAC | 47 | -3 | 22 | 2.39 | 1.56 | 0.11 | 6.51 | 8% |
| 12 | BUF | @NYJ | 37 | 7.5 | 22.25 | 2.33 | 1.53 | 0.12 | 6.42 | 6% |
| 13 | NYG | @SF | 43.5 | 3 | 23.25 | 2.43 | 1.45 | 0.14 | 6.28 | 3% |
| 14 | WAS | @TB | 51.5 | 2.5 | 27 | 2.6 | 1.65 | 0.12 | 6.06 | 41% |
| 15 | DAL | @PHI | 43.5 | 6 | 24.75 | 2.48 | 1.27 | 0.11 | 5.55 | 74% |
| 16 | TB | WAS | 51.5 | -2.5 | 24.5 | 2.26 | 1.28 | 0.12 | 5.46 | 1% |
| 17 | JAC | @IND | 47 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 1.29 | 0.16 | 5.33 | 72% |
| 18 | DET | @CHI | 45 | 6.5 | 25.75 | 2.28 | 1.25 | 0.13 | 5.22 | 8% |
| 19 | PIT | CAR | 51.5 | -4 | 23.75 | 2.12 | 1.15 | 0.13 | 5.22 | 60% |
| 20 | MIA | @GB | 47.5 | 9 | 28.25 | 2.53 | 1.4 | 0.11 | 5.14 | 44% |
| 21 | NO | @CIN | 54 | -4 | 25 | 2.1 | 1.23 | 0.13 | 5.11 | 21% |
| 22 | TEN | NE | 46.5 | 6.5 | 26.5 | 2.05 | 1.24 | 0.09 | 4.56 | 12% |
| 23 | CLE | ATL | 51 | 4 | 27.5 | 2.36 | 1.18 | 0.08 | 4.49 | 13% |
| 24 | CAR | @PIT | 51.5 | 4 | 27.75 | 1.93 | 1.34 | 0.1 | 4.47 | 77% |
| 25 | CIN | NO | 54 | 4 | 29 | 1.86 | 1.24 | 0.1 | 3.91 | 12% |
| 26 | SEA | @LAR | 51.5 | 10 | 30.75 | 2.12 | 1.21 | 0.08 | 3.59 | 33% |
| 27 | OAK | LAC | 50.5 | 9.5 | 30 | 1.75 | 1.11 | 0.06 | 3.08 | 10% |
| 28 | ARI | @KC | 50 | 16.5 | 33.25 | 1.93 | 1.22 | 0.07 | 2.74 | 13% |
Let’s Talk About The Top Picks
- NYJ vs BUF: It’s no secret that Buffalo is horrible. They scored only 9 points while giving Chicago two defensive touchdowns. The Jets aren’t Chicago, but they’ve been good enough to score 10+ fantasy points against better offenses than Buffalo four times this season. At this point, it’s looking unlikely that the team facing buffalo will ever fail to be my top-ranked defense.
- KC vs ARI: If you used Kansas City last week (like I did in almost every league), you probably aren’t thrilled. They held Cleveland to 21 points, but only two sacks and one turnover meant it was a quiet fantasy day. The bright side is they are in an even better spot this week against one of the four least functional offenses in football. (The other three are Buffalo, Oakland, and the Giants.)
- PHI vs DAL: Dallas embarrassed themselves last night against Tennessee, and now they have to go to Philly. The addition of Amari Cooper was cute, but it has no real impact on how afraid we should be of that offense.
- CHI vs DET: Speaking of embarrassing themselves, Detroit scored 9 points on three field goals Sunday night. The Bears are a defense you can start against most teams, and the Lions certainly qualify. If you have the Bears, hold on tight.
- LAC @ OAK: It speaks to how good a week this is for defenses that only one of the top 7 teams is on the road. Oakland has a powerful combination of incompetent coaching and practice-squad player talent that makes them a great matchup for any defense, especially one as not-below-average as the Chargers.
- GB vs MIA: At this point, it looks like Brock Osweiler will start again for the Dolphins. If that happens, full steam ahead. If Ryan Tannehill does play, the Packers will still be a good start at home, but they’ll drop out of the top tier.
- SF vs NYG: One team is riddled with injuries, starting their undrafted third-string quarterback for the second game of his career. The other team is starting a quarterback with two Super Bowl rings, one of the league’s best receivers in Odell Beckham Jr., and hall of fame running back Saquon Barkley. Can you guess who’s favored? That’s how hilariously bad Eli Manning is. The 49ers D/ST has done well against similarly bad offenses in Arizona and Oakland, and are set up to do it again at home against the Giants.
- NE @ TEN: The Titans offense was surprisingly effective last week against the Cowboys, but they benefited from playing from ahead all game thanks to some head scratchers from the Cowboys offense. They will have no such luck against one of the few teams in the league with actually good coaching.
- ATL @ CLE: The Browns showed promise last week after their coaching change, actually remembering that Duke Johnson Jr. is on the team. If you start Atlanta this week, you’re hoping to get lucky on some turnovers, because the Browns will be playing from behind the whole time.
- LAR vs SEA: The Seahawks put up just 17 points against the Chargers last week, and now they have to visit the better Los Angeles defense. If you’ve been holding the Rams, there’s not much reason not to start them this week after (hopefully) leaving them on your bench last week.
Let’s Reflect on Last Week
Last week, our top two tiers each averaged 13 fantasy points, and the third tier averaged 9 (compared to 3 for teams not ranked as starters). Unfortunately, those numbers are all buoyed by big days from individual teams. Other teams ranked as starters didn’t tank you (except Baltimore), unless you faced the Bears or Dolphins. Four of the six teams to score at least 10 fantasy points were ranked as starters – the other two where the Chargers and Titans, ranked 11th and 12th as the best non-starters.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | O/U | Spread | Proj. FPTS | Act. FPTS |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||
| 1 | CHI | @BUF | 37.5 | -8.5 | 9.29 | 28 |
| 2 | KC | @CLE | 52 | -8.5 | 7.43 | 4 |
| 3 | DAL | TEN | 41 | -6.5 | 7.23 | 7 |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||
| 4 | DEN | HOU | 46.5 | -2.5 | 7.16 | 5 |
| 5 | MIA | NYJ | 45 | -3 | 6.66 | 25 |
| 6 | CAR | TB | 54 | -6.5 | 6.51 | 6 |
| 7 | SF | OAK | 46.5 | -3 | 6.32 | 15 |
| The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier | ||||||
| 8 | BAL | PIT | 47 | -3 | 6.24 | 1 |
| 9 | NE | GB | 56.5 | -6.5 | 6.21 | 4 |
| 10 | MIN | DET | 50.5 | -5.5 | 6.14 | 22 |
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
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