Geoff Lambert takes a look at a few tight ends that are going undrafted but could have a breakout season in 2019.
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The tight end position may be the hardest position to find “sleepers.” For an RB or WR, sometimes it comes down to playing time. If they are inline to see an increase in snaps, that could make a player a sleeper. With the tight end, they could play 100 percent of the snaps, be considered a good NFL tight end and still not be fantasy relevant. These next three guys are going undrafted in most redraft leagues, but if you like to stream tight end, or if you are trying to find that diamond in the rough, these are the guys with the best chance at it.
Average Draft Position (ADP) based on our consensus ADP for standard scoring leagues
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Mike Gesicki (MIA) – Current ADP: TE27
Gesicki had a rookie season to forget after coming into the 2018 draft as the consensus top tight end prospect. However, I’m not ready to give up on him just yet. Tight ends take longer to make the transition to the NFL and rarely do we see them break out in year one. Take a look at these two stat lines:
- 22 catches on 32 targets for 202 yards.
- 20 catches on 42 targets for 265 yards and three TDs.
Outside of the three TDs, those stat lines look very similar. The first one is obviously Mike Gesicki. The second? Vernon Davis.
Not a bad player to be compared to — but the comparisons don’t stop there. Playerprofiler.com takes a player’s workout metrics and college production and gives you their closest NFL counterpart. Guess who Gesicki was closely matched with? If you said Vernon Davis, you would be correct. This guy was all the talk at this time last year and his workout metrics are 96th percentile or better in every category and when you combined that with the knowledge that tight ends take longer to transition to the NFL, why has everyone already given up on him?
The Dolphins don’t have a ton of talent on their roster which should lead to more opportunities for a 6-foot-6 250-pound tight end that ran a 4.54-second 40-yard dash and has one of the largest catch radiuses in the history of the combine. At TE22, he is basically free.
Dawson Knox (BUF) – Current ADP: TE47
Opportunity trumps talent every time and Knox may have the opportunity to play a big role in Buffalo’s offense this year. I know, I just talked about tight ends taking longer to develop, and Knox is a rookie, but he is a 6-foot-4 250-pound tight end that can run. There is a good chance he becomes QB Josh Allen’s “safety blanket.” He has an extremely limited sample size, having not caught more than 24 passes in a season during his college career, but at TE40, and with the opportunities he should get, Knox is a low-risk/high-reward player.
There has been some positive news about Dawson Knox coming out of camp with the expected starter Tyler Kroft out with an injury. It has opened the door for Knox and by all accounts, he has played well. Knox may not be a guy you draft in redraft leagues, but he is definitely someone to keep an eye on as a potential waiver wire add for later in the season.
Darren Waller (OAK) – Current ADP: TE32
Jared Cook left Oakland to head to New Orleans and left a huge hole in the Raiders offense. Cook accounted for 68 receptions on 101 targets for 896 yards and six TDs. I know, the Raiders traded for Antonio Brown, signed Tyrell Williams, and drafted Josh Jacobs, but I still think there are enough targets for Waller to be a high-end TE2. At 6-foot-6 255-pounds he runs a 4.46-second 40-yard dash and is a huge target in the middle of the field and in the red zone. Going into his fourth season as a pro, Waller is primed for a breakout campaign in 2019.
While I don’t think he will see anywhere close to the 101 targets Cook saw, he could flirt with 70-to-80. At his size, he also might be their best red-zone threat and could catch more than the six TDs Cook had last year.
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