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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 4 (2019)

Sep 26, 2019

Kyle Allen is primed to produce against Houston

Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 4.

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This week’s column includes a backup quarterback, two players from the Dolphins, and a tight end that has only played seven games in his career but has five touchdowns.

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Kyle Allen (CAR): $6,800 @ HOU
Allen lit up the Cardinals last week to the tune of four touchdowns and, while I don’t expect a repeat of that performance, I do think he can still have a good game in this spot. The Texans are 18th in pass DVOA (via so far this season, but they are especially bad against a teams’ No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, ranking 24th and 21st DVOA, respectively. Allen has a WR1A in D.J. Moore and a WR1B in Curtis Samuel, and both of them should have good games this week.

Matthew Stafford (DET): $6,900 vs. KC
This game has a 54.5 over/under (via with the Chiefs a 6.5-point favorite. It is by far the highest Vegas total of any of the games this weekend. Stafford hasn’t put up a ton of points over the last two weeks, but in a game where he will have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs, he should easily pay off his salary.

Running Backs

Kenyan Drake (MIA): $5,300 vs. LAC
The Chargers’ pass defense is ranked 28th and their run defense is 23rd overall in DVOA. Drake figures to get some work in both of those categories. He had 12 carries and six targets last week and figures to see a similar workload this week. Drake hasn’t done much so far this year, but he is the type of player that only needs one play to pay off his salary. He gets that big play in this game.

Chris Thompson (WAS): $5,300 @ NYG
Thompson is the Redskins’ best fantasy running back and, with over 100 total yards last week on 11 touches, they would be smart to get him the ball more. The Giants struggle defending pass-catching runnings backs, ranking 25th in DVOA by giving up over four receptions and 30-plus yards per game to the position. The seven carries he received last week could be a trend as Adrian Peterson continues to struggle, further adding to his value in this offense.

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): $5,900 vs. SEA
Fitzgerald has either 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in every game this season and has 20 targets through three games. This Cardinals’ offense is going to continue to throw the ball a ton and play fast, which will create plenty of opportunities. Fitzgerald has been a much better player at home late in his career as well, and this game will be in Arizona.

Preston Williams (MIA): $5,200 vs. LAC
Williams has been the lone bright spot on a team that lacks very many bright spots. His targets have increased in each game of the season, including a season-high 12 targets in Week 3 with Josh Rosen under center. I expect the Dolphins to be down early, which will lead to more work for Williams.

Tight Ends

Will Dissly (SEA): $5,400 @ ARI
Take a look at these stat lines:

  • Six receptions on nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown
  • Eight receptions on nine targets for 112 yards and a touchdown
  • Six receptions on seven targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns

Those are the stat lines of T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and Greg Olsen when they played against this Cardinals defense this season. With the mid-week trade of fellow tight end Nick Vannett from the Seahawks to the Steelers, Dissly is the only pass-catching tight end on the Seahawks. He could have another two-touchdown game in this great matchup.


Vikings $4,000 @ CHI
The Bears’ offense has yet to look good in any game this season. Mitch Trubisky looks like he has regressed from last year and the Bears’ running game hasn’t been great either. The Vikings come in as the 13th best defense and should give this Bears offense fits as they try to stop the Bears’ front seven from getting to Trubisky.

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