Monkey Knife Fight Best Bets Week 6 (2019 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. If you have not heard by now, there is a new player in the DFS arena. Instead of offering the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight offers DFS players the opportunity to make stat or fantasy point-based predictions via the over/under model. Perhaps the greatest part about their offerings is that you are able to predict the total for two or more lines, and in turn reap the rewards of the increased multiplier-based payouts.
As many avid bettors know, the opportunity to combine player props in parlays is not available in many sportsbooks. This is largely due to the fact that they do not want sharps picking and choosing props and beating the book. At Monkey Knife Fight you do not get to choose which totals you combine or parlay, rather the offering combinations are predetermined, and the onus is on the DFS player to seek out the potential values. With that in mind, we have dug into every over/under stat offering for Week 6 to identify the top values.
Monkey Knife Fight’s lines are dynamic and change throughout the week. This means values need to be searched and exploited throughout the week, and on sight. We have identified some of the top offering combinations for you to keep your eye out for. Let’s dig in.
Will Fuller (WR – HOU) over 67.5 receiving yards
LeSean McCoy (RB – KC) over 34.5 rushing yards
Luckily, the one over/under total our friends at Monkey Knife Fight were able to lock in was one of the most appealing of the weekend. Will Fuller went bonkers in Week 5 with 14 receptions, 217 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. His touchdown total could have easily been five as he was tackled twice at the one-yard line. Fuller has cleared this total in just two of his three contests this season. With that said, the Texans versus Chiefs contest has the highest over/under total of the week and promises plenty of scoring. The Texans project to be forced to air it out which will directly benefit Will Fuller in his quest to top this total. Fuller managed to top his season total in yards in just one contest and is sure to be a featured part of the game plan against the Chiefs.
Fuller is set to do battle with Charvariys Ward. Ward, according to Sports Info Solutions, has been targeted 26 times in coverage and has allowed a 53.8 completion percentage (14 receptions). He has relinquished 8.1 yards per target. Digging into his advanced numbers shows us that Ward has been helped out by some errant throws. He has defended just two targets and sports a highly exploitable 94.1 deserved catch percentage.
LeSean McCoy over 34.5 rushing yards seems like an error line. The total was at 37.5 yards early Friday but took a mini tumble. The total here feels like an overreaction to McCoy’s fumble and game-flow fueled zero carry Week 5. McCoy still started the contest and would have likely received double-digit rushing attempts if the game script had not prevented it. There is little doubt that his fumble also played a part in the veteran back seeing just 22 percent of the snaps.
Damien Williams was predictably awful on the ground again in Week 5 (2.6 yards per carry), so McCoy is a strong bet to lead the backfield in Week 6 rushing attempts. McCoy has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on the season and is easily superior to Damien Williams as a runner. McCoy has cleared this total in three of his five contests this season. He should be able to do so once again against a Houston Texans defense that has relinquished 4.24 yards per carry.
These are some of the other most appealing offerings we identified throughout the week. Keep an eye out in case one of these combinations is offered again.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) over 64.5 receiving yards
Preston Williams (WR – MIA) over 3.5 receptions
This was arguably the most attractive stat-based total offered for Week 6. With Case Keenum back under center, McLaurin should be the recipient of multiple deep targets. McLaurin has surpassed this total in just one of his four contests this season but is a great bet to do so once again against the Miami Dolphins.
Preston Williams is set to battle with beatable cornerback Quinton Dunbar, and should once again lead the Miami Dolphins in targets. The 3.5 receptions for Williams sadly was too good to remain on the board. It has now changed to Davante Parker 3.5 receptions, which is a much trickier proposition. With Albert Wilson due back the under seems like the play, but if he suddenly has an efficient receiving outing he can easily hit the over against Washington. The McLaurin-Parker offering is now locked in, making this an option to strongly consider.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA) over 48.5 receiving yards
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) over 81.5 rushing yards
D.K. Metcalf looks set to have his way with a beat-up Cleveland Browns secondary. Metcalf would have had the advantage over number two corner Greedy Williams, but will instead be presented with an even easier matchup against T.J. Carrie. Nick Chubb is averaging 97.5 rushing yards per contest and is the only player on the Cleveland Browns offense playing close to their potential. Chubb opened the season with two straight contest under the posted total. He has cleared this total in each of his last three contests. This line is currently off the board but is a wonderful offering worth keeping an eye out for.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) over 66.5 rushing yards
Kenny Golladay (WR – DET) over 69.5 receiving yards
This was a fun offering when it was available. While this line is currently off the board, this is one to keep your eye out for in case it ‘rotates’ back in. After his Week 5 domination, Aaron Jones has in all likelihood transformed himself from a timeshare back to a lead back in head coach Matt LaFleur’s eyes. Detroit has one of the most underrated front sevens in all of football, but have surrendered 93.75 rushing yards per contest at 4.26 yards per carry. Kenny Golladay will likely see a healthy dose of emerging corner Jaire Alexander but is set to line up against Kevin King who has allowed 9.2 yards per target. With the point spread for this contest opening at -5.5 on the Packers, the game script is expected to be there for Golladay to receive enough targets to clear 69.5 receiving yards rather easily.