The NFL regular season is over, but don’t despair, the PGA season starts back up again this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This is a winners-only event, as each of the PGA winners from 2019 will compete against each other in Hawaii. DraftKings has a variety of contests, highlighted by their featured $8 entry with a $100,000 first-place prize. FanDuel also has contests at various price ranges starting at only $0.25, but their contests and prize pools are much smaller overall.

Jon Rahm (4:1), Justin Thomas (5:1), and Xander Schauffele (7:1) are the favorites this week. Dustin Johnson (10:1) and Patrick Cantlay (11:1) round out the top five in the betting markets. They are also the consensus top-five golfers on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Rahm has the highest salary on both sites ($11,400 on DK and $11,900 on FD). DraftKings gives you $50,000 to select six golfers (average roster spot of $8,333), whereas FanDuel provides you with $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000.

All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will consider for my own lineups. In fact, most of the plays mentioned are based upon my customized model that includes a variety of statistics and results. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. This article is written early in the week, and additional news, research, and roster construction could lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction — especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.

Remember that golf is very difficult to play, but that predicting golf in DFS might be even more challenging. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a golf season. However, from week-to-week, major variance can occur. Any golfer on the PGA Tour is capable of winning an event. On the flip side, even the best golfers in the world are capable of missing the cut in a given event.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

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Tournament Notes

• The Sentry Tournament of Champions is played at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii. It has hosted this event since 1999. The par-73 course measures more than 7,500 yards, but it plays much shorter than the yardage on the scorecard.
• Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson, Shane Lowry, Francesco Molinari, C.T. Pan, and Rory McIlroy all chose not to play this week, leaving only 34 players scheduled to tee it up for this week’s no-cut event.
• Xander Schauffele defeated Gary Woodland in last year’s event when he shot an 11-under 62 on Sunday to set the course record. If he were to win and go back-to-back this year, he’d be the first golfer to do so since Geoff Ogilvy in 2009 and 2010.
• Past champions of this event scheduled to play this week include Xander Schauffele (2019), Dustin Johnson (2018 & 2013), Justin Thomas (2017), and Patrick Reed (2015). Additionally, Gary Woodland (2019), Jon Rahm (2018), and Patrick Reed (2016) have finished runner-up at this even in the past.
• The winning score has been 20-under par or better in nine of the last 11 years, including the last five.
• There are 15 first-time PGA winners in this event, which is the second-most in tournament history. There were 19 in 2003.
• The Bermuda greens are some of the largest on the PGA Tour, averaging 8,000 square feet (compared to the Tour average of 6,500 square feet). The size will make it easier to hit greens in regulation. They also measure around 9.5 on the Stimpmeter, which is slower than normal because of the extreme undulations.
• The average width of the fairways is 50 yards, and some of them reach 75. These will be the widest fairways the pros will see this year, making it easier for everyone (but especially the bombers) to hit the fairways.
• The course has three par 3s, 11 par 4s, and four par 5s (which are all reachable in two).

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. The best golfers, in terms of stats for this week (in ranked order), are Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Paul Casey, Sebastian Munoz, Corey Conners, Xander Schauffele, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, and Dylan Frittelli.

Recent Scoring Ability
It’s always important to be playing well coming into a tournament. In particular, since we are playing DFS, it’s valuable for a golfer to be scoring well, and not just making par after par. The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form scoring model for birdie-or-better percentage and fantasy scoring (in ranked order) are Sebastian Munoz, Brendon Todd, J.T. Poston, Adam Long, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Dylan Frittelli, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Corey Conners.

Par 5 Scoring
The fairways are large, and all four of the par 5s are reachable in two strokes. Shot making and the approach game is always important, but at this course, driving distance and the ability to score on Par 5s are valued more than at some other courses. When combining driving distance with par 5 scoring, the top ten golfers in my customized model (in ranked order) are Justin Thomas, Nate Lashley, Xander Schauffele, Paul Casey, Sebastian Munoz, Patrick Cantlay, Dylan Frittelli, Lanto Griffin, Dustin Johnson, and Jon Rahm.

No-Cut Events
In a no-cut event, scoring matters more than cut-making ability. Each golfer is guaranteed to play four rounds of golf. For example, two players could finish a round at even-par, but suppose one had 18 pars and the other had nine birdies and nine bogeys. In DraftKings scoring, the golfer with all pars would have 9.0 DKFP, but the one that was up-and-down all day would end up with 22.5 DKFP. In looking at the last 25 no-cut events played the past two years, the best golfers (in ranked order) are Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, J.T. Poston, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, and Corey Conners.

Course History
Even though each golfer teeing it up this week won a PGA event in 2019, they are not all equal. Traditionally, the top-ranked golfers have played the best at this event. The golfers with the best strokes gained statistics over the last five years are Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm.

• Dustin Johnson – Four straight top-10 finishes, including a win in 2018.
• Justin Thomas – Third in 2019 and a win in 2017.
• Patrick Reed – T6 in 2017, runner-up in 2016, and a win in 2015.
• Rickie Fowler – Top-five finishes in his only two appearances (2018 and 2016).
• Gary Woodland – Runner-up last year in his only appearance.
• Xander Schauffele – Defending champion.
• Jon Rahm – T8 last year after a runner-up performance in 2018.

Favorite Elite Play

Jon Rahm ($11,400 – DK / $11,900 – FD)
He is a slight favorite over Justin Thomas (who is also a very good play) this week. Rahm checks all of the boxes for me. He can hit it a country mile, he can score with the best of them, he has good course history, and he is coming in with great form. He also just finished runner-up at the Hero World Championship. In the last two months, he has two wins and a runner-up finish on the European Tour. In the three PGA playoff events this past fall, he finished T13, T5, and T3. He also finished T8 here last year after a runner-up performance in his first TOC appearance in 2018. Even though Rahm is my pick, I will still try to find a way to get both Rahm and JT in some of my lineups, as they are first and second in essentially all statistical metrics.

Favorite Higher-Tier Play

Patrick Reed ($9,000 – DK / $10,800 – FD)
Any of the players in this event are solid plays, and, in a vacuum, Patrick Cantlay is my favorite Patrick in this event, but Patrick Reed isn’t far behind. Cantlay is ranked fourth in my power rankings, and Reed is fifth. I expect Reed to be less owned and with his slightly cheaper salary, which makes him a better value this week. He just finished third at the Hero World Championship after helping the U.S. win the President’s Cup. Reed finished runner-up at the WGC-HSBC and T10 at the ZOZO (both no-cut events), prior to the President’s Cup. He was only 25th last year at the TOC but had three straight top-six finishes prior to that.

Favorite Mid-Tier Play

Brendon Todd ($8,100 – DK / $9,300 – FD)
When the Fall Swing Season ended, Todd was arguably the hottest golfer on the planet with two wins and a fourth-place finish in his last three events. In the last 24 rounds, he is fourth in total strokes gained on the field and sixth in fantasy scoring. All of the golfers in this field have shown the ability to win, but Todd has done it most recently and on multiple occasions. It should also be noted that he is minimum priced on Yahoo’s site. In fact, there are 20 golfers priced at the minimum on Yahoo, which means you should take a stars-and-scrubs approach.

Favorite Core Play

Corey Conners ($7,800 – DK / $8,900 – FD)
In the last 24 rounds played, he’s 10th in total strokes gained and 11th in fantasy scoring. He would be even better if he wasn’t so inconsistent with the flat stick. He is 27th out of the 34 players in this field in putting. He is great off the tee and is an elite ball-striker. I like his chances at this course to put himself in a position to have a good week. He is a good scorer and has played well in no-cut events. In his last seven events, he has four top-15 finishes. Three of those were at no-cut events with very strong fields (ZOZO, CJ Cup, and BMW playoff event). He is also minimum priced on Yahoo.

Favorite Lower-Tier Play

Sebastian Munoz ($7,100 – DK / $8,300 – FD)
He had a strong Fall as he finished T7 in three of his seven events, including third in his most recent event (RSM). He can score, and he is a long hitter. In the last 24 rounds played, he is third in this field in both fantasy scoring and total shots gained on the field. He will be a core piece in most of my lineups as he is someone that I think can finish in the top 10 and gives me the salary savings to get Rahm, JT, or Xander. He is also minimum priced on Yahoo.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.