A three-way playoff with Justin Thomas outlasting Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week provided us a great start to the 2020 calendar golf year. This week, we stay in Hawaii but turn our attention to the first full-field event of the year. The Sony Open has 144 players scheduled to tee it up and the top-65 (and ties) will advance to play the weekend. Matt Kuchar is the defending champion, but Justin Thomas is the overwhelming favorite with 5:1 odds. Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed are next with 12:1 odds to win.

DraftKings provides us with a salary cap of $50,000 to select six golfers (average roster spot of $8,333). Justin Thomas ($12,000) is the only golfer priced in the 12K range, while Simpson ($11,100) is the only golfer in the 11K range. Patrick Reed ($10,800), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500), and Collin Morikawa ($10,300) are the only other five-figure golfers on DK. The site has a variety of contests at different price points starting at $0.10 per entry. A popular contest is the $5 “Drive the Green” with a $100,000 first-place prize.

All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. In fact, most of the plays mentioned are based upon my customized model that includes a variety of statistics and results. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. This article is written early in the week and additional news, research, and roster construction could lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.

Remember that golf is very difficult to play but DFS golf is even tougher. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a golf season. However, from week-to-week, major variance can occur. Any golfer on the PGA Tour is capable of winning an event. On the flip side, even the best golfers in the world are capable of missing the cut in a given event.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

Try Daily Fantasy Golf at DraftKings now

Tournament Notes

• This marks the 55th consecutive year that the Sony Open has been held at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. Only Augusta National, Colonial, and Pebble Beach have hosted a PGA event longer than Waialae. The Par 70 course measures 7,044 yards and was ranked as the 32nd easiest golf course on the PGA Tour last season (out of 49).
• Of the 34 golfers that played in last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, 21 of them will be teeing it up in Honolulu this week.
• Past Sony Open champions scheduled to play this week include Matt Kuchar (2019), Patton Kizzire (2018), Justin Thomas (2017), Fabian Gomez (2016), Jimmy Walker (2014 & 2015), Russell Henley (2013), Ryan Palmer (2010), Zach Johnson (2009), Vijay Singh (2005), and Jerry Kelly (2002).
• Only five (Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Matt Kuchar) of the top-25 in the latest Official World Golf Rankings are playing this week.
• The average winning score for the last five years has been nearly 22-under par.
• Only the Barbasol, The PLAYERS, and TPC Deer Run gave up more Eagles last year than the 56 that were shot at the Sony Open.
• Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire both won the OHL Mayakoba in the same season prior to their Sony Open win. In case you were wondering, Brendon Todd won the OHL Mayakoba back in November.
• Seven of the last eight champions competed in the Sentry TOC the week before. Overall, 15 of the last 21 champions have played in Maui the previous week. Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) are the only players to win both Hawaiian events in the same year.
• Unlike last week’s TOC (where the greens and fairways were massive), everything about the course is pretty average compared to the other courses on tour. The course is flat, short and the bentgrass greens are of average speed (11 on the stimpmeter) and size (average of 6,400 square feet). However, the fairways are smaller than the PGA average.
• Even though we saw strong winds last week on Maui for the TOC, there is rarely strong wind at the Sony in Honolulu.
• The course has four par 3s, 12 par 4s, and two par 5s (both are between 500-550 yards).
• Since 2017, Justin Thomas is a ridiculous 115-under par playing in Hawaii (Sentry TOC and the Sony Open).
• Corey Conners finished T3 last year but that was even more remarkable considering that he was a Monday Qualifier.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. The best golfers, in terms of stats for this week (in ranked order) are Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Sebastian Munoz, Vaughn Taylor, and Corey Conners.

Recent Scoring Ability
It is always important to be playing well coming into a tournament. In particular, since we are playing DFS, it is valuable for a golfer to be scoring well, and not just making par after par. The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form scoring model for birdie-or-better percentage and fantasy scoring (in ranked order) are Justin Thomas, Vaughn Taylor, Hideki Matsuyama, Carlos Ortiz, Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im, Sebastian Munoz, Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson, and Brian Gay.

Approach Game
Only two of the golfers who had top-10 finishes last season at the Sony Open also had at Top-10 week off-the-tee. Even though this course has some of the smaller fairways on Tour and has a below-average rate of fairways hit, the rough is not penal. The course is more of a second shot course with the approach game proving more important than the off-the-tee game. In my customized model that takes into account both short-term form and long-term form, the ten golfers with the best approach game (in ranked order) are Emiliano Grillo, Corey Conners, Russell Knox, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Kyle Stanley, Chez Reavie, Ryan Armour, Russell Henley, and Xinjun Zhang.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know but sports (in particular, DFS golf) oftentimes comes down to playing the best golfers. Sure, salary is involved but the more good golfers can you fit in your lineups, then the better chance you give yourself. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Justin Thomas (#4), Patrick Reed (#11), Webb Simpson (#12), Hideki Matsuyama (#22), Matt Kuchar (#24), Kevin Na (#27), Marc Leishman (#28), Shugo Imahira (#30), Kevin Kisner (#33), and Sungjae Im (#34).

Course History
The golfers who have gained the most total strokes at Waialae Golf Course during the last five years (in ranked order) include Justin Thomas, Chez Reavie, Charles Howell, Webb Simpson, Marc Leishman, Scott Piercy, Hudson Swafford, Russell Knox, James Hahn, and Jimmy Walker. There have been ten players that have finished in the top-10 on two different occasions within the last five years. Those ten golfers are JT, Reavie, Kuchar, Swafford, Zach Johnson, Zac Blair, Brian Stuard, Jerry Kelly, Jamie Lovemark, and Kevin Kisner. Brian Stuard is the only golfer to finish in the top ten in each of the last two years. Charles Howell has made the cut in 18 straight Sony Opens, 10 of which were top-ten finishes.

Favorite $10,000+ Play

Webb Simpson ($11,100)
My core group of golfers this week will primarily include only players that played last week at the Tournament of Champions. However, there will be one major exception and that is Webb Simpson. He and Tiger Woods are my favorite golfers so maybe I am biased, but the data backs me up and I get a discount on him from Justin Thomas. He didn’t play this event last year but finished T4 in 2018. Before that, he had three straight top-15 finishes. Overall, he has made nine straight Sony Open cuts. He has had four runner-up finishes in his last 11 PGA Tour events, including last November at the RSM. In the last 36 rounds played, he is third in this field in both fantasy scoring and total shots gained. Nobody has been better than him with the short game or the putter during that time, as well. I will probably have some exposure to JT and Reed, as well. Hideki rates out well in my model but I’d rather go with guys that played last week – or Webb.

Favorite $9,000 Plays

Sungjae Im ($9,600)
Im has played on the weekend in 16 of his last 17 starts, including 10 in a row. We know he can go low (leading the TOUR in rounds in the 60s last year) but he has turned into one of the more consistent players on tour. His last two starts have resulted in a T11 at the WGC-HSBC and a T3 at the ZOZO. In his first start at the Sony, he finished T16 last year. In the last 24 rounds, he is third in fantasy scoring and fourth in total strokes gained on the field.

Joaquin Niemann ($9,400)
After shooting a seven-under-par 66 and leading the first round of the TOC, he ended up finishing T5. He has played the weekend in 15 of his last 18 events. In the last 50 rounds, he is fifth in fantasy scoring and sixth in total strokes gained.

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Corey Conners ($8,900)
He was a Monday qualifier last year at this event and took full advantage of that as he finished T3. His T19 last week at the TOC was his fifth straight top-20 finish and eighth top-25 finish in his last 10 events. He grades out really well in all stat models that avoid putting and short game. He is an extremely good ball-striker. In the last 36 rounds, he is first in SG: OTT and third in SG: T2G.

J.T. Poston ($8,100)
In the last 36 rounds, Poston is sixth in fantasy scoring. He has six top-16 finishes in his last 12 events, including a win at the Wyndham Open. He finished T11 last week at the Tournament of Champions. He will be a core piece in both my cash and tournament lineups this week. He is a good ball-striker and has been putting extremely well lately. Brendon Todd ($8,300) and last year’s runnerup Andrew Putnam ($8,000) are two other options that I like in this price range this week.

Favorite $7,000 Plays

Lanto Griffin ($7,500)
He has played the weekend in 10 of his last 11 events. During that time, he has accumulated eight top-20 finishes, including a win in Houston back in October. In this field, he is seventh in total strokes gained and fantasy scoring in the last 36 rounds. Griffin is also fifth in par 5 efficiency. There are only two par 5s on the course, but Eagles were plentiful last year and being able to score on these could leapfrog Griffin to the leaderboard. He was 13th at the TOC.

Vaughn Taylor ($7,400)
Taylor ended the 2019 calendar year with a runner-up finish at the OHL and a T10 at the RSM. He has now played the weekend in 15 of his last 16 starts. Unfortunately, he did miss the cut here last year but his form coming in was nothing like it is right now. Currently, he ranks sixth in fantasy scoring and 15th in total shots gained for the last 24 rounds played. Sebastian Munoz ($7,900), Brian Stuard ($7,900), Carlos Ortiz ($7,700), and Ryan Palmer ($7,500) are also options that I like in this price range.

Favorite $6,000 Play

Adam Long ($6,800)
He’s played the weekend in nine straight events, including a runner-up finish at the OHL in the middle of November. He is 22nd in fantasy scoring over the last 36 rounds played. He has turned into a nice cut making option with upside. I will also be considering Tyler Duncan ($6,800), who finished T19 at the TOC last week. He won the RSM prior to that. Mark Hubbard ($6,500) is also intriguing as he has made the cut in 20 of his last 22 events. He also has four top-13 finishes in his last nine starts. He didn’t play last week at the TOC so my exposure to him will be slightly limited.

Try Daily Fantasy Golf at DraftKings now

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.