The idea behind playing lotteries of all sorts is the same: Take a small gamble for the potential for a big payoff. Sure, gamblers can win their money back on scratch-off tickets or massive jackpot games, and they can — and most often do — lose money on the gamble. The downside is known, but it’s all about chasing the dream of a big payoff.
The following players carry risks that are baked into their average draft position (ADP). I’m not going to focus on the warts and shortcomings in their respective games, though. Instead, I’ll highlight the reasons for a potentially big payoff at a modest or low-risk investment. Only one player below has an ADP inside the top-200 players. At such cheap costs, they all have the potential to provide a massive return on investment in the same light as hitting big on a lottery ticket. As an aside, I’ve avoided including players whom I’ve previously gushed about this offseason in favor of including numerous fresh faces for gamers to file away as draft targets.
Prep for your draft with our award-winning fantasy baseball tools 
Danny Jansen (C – TOR): ADP – 289.3
Jansen was a popular breakout candidate at catcher last year after hitting well in a 2018 cup of coffee, but he flopped. Perhaps lost in 2019’s poor overall numbers is a solid finish that coincided with actual changes during the season.
Ben Palmer of Pitcher List took a look at Jansen last year, and he pointed out a batting stance change deployed June 23. In 193 plate appearances from that point until the end of the year, the young backstop hit 11 homers with a .247/.306/.478 slash line, 6.2 BB%, 17.1 K%, 44.8 FB%, and 43.5 hard-hit%, according to FanGraphs. Those numbers pace to better than 20 homers with 400-plus plate appearances, and that plays at catcher.
Jansen’s continuing to fine-tune his offense this offseason, and he must be delighted with his results thus far this spring. In 11 plate appearances, he’s gone 4-for-8 with a pair of taters, three walks, and zero strikeouts, per MLB.com. Spring training results should always be taken with a grain of salt, but his early success is better than the alternative of struggling. Check out the second of his two spring dingers below:
Jano left NO doubt about this! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/eacHm2tgqM
– Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) March 2, 2020
Jansen’s current ADP makes him the 21st catcher off the board, but I’m much more optimistic about his 2020 outlook and have him ranked 14th at the position. He’s worth reaching for a round ahead of his ADP.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (2B/OF – TOR): ADP – 166.2
Gurriel Jr.’s ADP is the earliest of the featured players by a wide margin. Having said that, he’s a steal at just outside the top-150 players, as I have him ranked 93rd overall.
The 26-year-old has amassed essentially a season’s worth of plate appearances since debuting with the parent club in 2018. In 606 plate appearances, he’s slugged 31 homers, scored 82 runs, tallied 85 RBIs, stolen seven bases, and slashed .279/.320/.499. After flashing in his first season with the Blue Jays, he took off last year. Gurriel Jr.’s well-rounded stat line should be in store for ample run production opportunities this season with the third spot in the order reportedly his.
The right-handed hitter’s power and speed look legit, too. Among qualified hitters, his 95.6 mph average FB/LD exit velocity tied for 37th out of 250 hitters, according to Baseball Savant. Furthermore, he did an excellent job of tapping into his pop more often last year with a 42.9 FB% — a considerable bump up from his 33.2 FB% in 2018. As for his speed, he’s a slightly above-average runner as measured by Statcast’s sprint speed score.
Gurriel Jr. is a box-score stuffer. Although he should be selected with at least a top-150 pick, I’d spend as early as the 120s to lock him up. With second base — he played nine games there — and outfield eligibility in some leagues, his position flexibility is a nice cherry on top.
Brian Anderson (3B/OF – MIA): ADP – 264.8
Anderson is another dual-position eligible player who should call a premium lineup spot home. Miami’s lineup isn’t as exciting as Toronto’s, but it has a chance to be respectable at the top with the additions of Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Villar, and Corey Dickerson. Aguilar was dreadful last year, but he posted a 134 wRC+ in 2018 and a 114 wRC+ in 2017. Villar totaled a 107 wRC+ with the Orioles last season and has the wheels to add value on the basepaths, too. In part-time roles with the Pirates and Phillies last year, Dickerson recorded a 127 wRC+ after ripping off a 116 wRC+ in 2017 and 115 wRC+ in 2018 in full-time roles with the Rays and Pirates, respectively.
That trio and Anderson should comprise the top-four spots in Miami’s order, and I suspect Anderson will hit second or third. Either of those lineup spots would award him the opportunity to help fantasy squads in runs and RBIs. He’s also coming off of a power outburst that doesn’t simply look to be the product of last year’s rabbit ball.
From 2018 to 2019, he kicked his fly-ball percentage up from 28.5% to 35.3%. He also hit the ball harder with a 38.2 hard-hit% in 2018 and 44.3% last year. Anderson’s 94.6 mph average FB/LD exit velocity last year tied thumpers such as Domingo Santana and Hunter Renfroe for the 61st-highest mark.
His upward trending pop could get an even greater lift from park factor changes I previously discussed this offseason here. Anderson’s career batted-ball data suggests he was well aware of his ballpark’s homer-suppressing ways — the second-lowest park factor for homers at 0.773, as you can see on our MLB Park Factors page — and consciously avoided hitting fly-balls in Miami while hitting them at a higher rate on the road.
| Year(s)/Location | Plate Appearances | FB% |
| 2017-2019/Home | 677 | 27.3% |
| 2017-2019/Road | 608 | 34.9% |
| 2019/Home | 280 | 29.0% |
| 2019/Road | 240 | 42.4% |
With the fences moving in, perhaps Anderson will opt to hit the ball in the air more often at home this season. I like the 26-year-old hitter’s odds of tallying at least 20 homers again this year. The career .267 hitter batted .261 last year, so he’s not a total drag on batting average either. Toss in his five stolen bases last year, and he’s not a complete dud in any category. In fact, contributing across the board is an attainable outcome for Anderson. Gamers should start giving him a look as early as pick 180 and jump all over him if he slides past pick 200.
Franchy Cordero (OF – SD): ADP – 437.0
Cordero missed essentially the entire 2019 season due to injury. Healthy now, he’s a souped-up toolshed with power and speed for days. Out of 564 players with a minimum of 25 batted ball events in 2018, Cordero’s 97.0 mph average FB/LD exit velocity ranked as the 28th-highest mark. Elite exit velocity like that can result in bombs like the 489-foot blast he ripped against the Diamondbacks in April of 2018.
Franchy Cordero tried to hit this one into oblivion. 489 feet later, he pretty much did. pic.twitter.com/WGthlTgBgU
– MLB (@MLB) April 21, 2018
Cordero also boasts wheels. Out of 549 qualified players in 2018, his sprint speed of 29.2 feet per second was tied for the 34th-fastest mark. He’s swiped seven bases in 79 major league games. Cordero also stole 20-plus bases in the minors in 2016 and 2017.
The left-handed hitting outfielder has a chance to earn the heavy side of a platoon, playing right field against right-handed pitchers this season. Cordero’s power and speed combo — even if limited to a platoon — is worth rolling the dice on in 14-team mixed leagues or deeper around pick 350.
Josh James (SP/RP – HOU): ADP – 338.3
James burst onto the scene as a pop-up prospect in 2018. His story is a unique one that you can read a bit about here. In short, James was diagnosed with sleep apnea in December 2016, and the usage of a CPAP machine gradually aided him in feeling more refreshed. In 2018, his velocity spiked and he reached The Show after blowing away Double-A and Triple-A hitters that season.
In 23.0 innings totaled over the course of six appearances (three starts) for the Astros, he tallied a 2.35 ERA, 3.00 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 31.9 K%, and 14.3 SwStr%. The electric debut sparked interest in him last spring, but a quad injury basically knocked him out of the competition for a rotation spot. James spent the year in the bullpen and teased upside with mixed results.
James is back in the rotation mix this spring and is off to a promising start. In the linked piece, James discussed working on his mechanics to improve his command and control. He also shared his goals and tweaked mechanics.
With 42 walks in 84.1 big league innings, improved control and command would be a welcome sight. He doesn’t need to have pinpoint control, though, as his bat-missing ability is elite with a 36.1 K% and 15.8 SwStr% in the majors. James’ ADP is sure to skyrocket if he turns in a few more solid starts and is rumored to land the fifth starter spot.
Even without a rotation spot guaranteed, James is already worth drafting more than 100 picks earlier than his ADP. In fact, depending on roster composition, gamers should have him on their radar just inside the top-200 picks.
Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | SoundCloud | Stitcher | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
