Game-By-Game Projections: Josh Jacobs (2020 Fantasy Football)
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Below are the game-by-game projections for Josh Jacobs. These projections are a combination of my yearly projection models, Vegas win totals, and defensive matchups. Let’s take a look at his per-game expectations in 2020.
Week 1: at Carolina Panthers
The Raiders hit the road for their first game of the year against the Panthers. The plethora of new defenders on their team allows Jacobs to eclipse 100 total yards and a touchdown. His stats would be even higher against their poor defense if they didn’t end up subbing in Richard and Bowden Jr. for passing situations as they trail in the second half.
Predicted stat line: 19 rushes, 96 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 2 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (17.8 fantasy points)
Week 2: vs New Orleans Saints
The Saints allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league last year and they maintain their ferocity on the ground. Jacobs severely struggles to get going in this one. The combination of rushing defense and being overmatched early in points limits his usage.
Predicted stat line: 13 rushes, 52 rush yards, 0 rush TD; 1 reception, 10 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (6.7 fantasy points)
Week 3: at New England Patriots
There were few teams better at stopping pass catching running backs than the Patriots last year, but Jacobs doesn’t project to catch the ball much this year anyways with the Raiders telling roster moves. They also only allowed two touchdowns all year, something I’m betting will give way to more realistic numbers this year. A short yardage rushing score saves what would have been an otherwise disappointing fantasy day.
Predicted stat line: 20 rushes, 97 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (15.7 fantasy points)
Week 4: vs Buffalo Bills
What a brutal matchup stretch for Jacobs: Saints, Patriots, and now the Bills. He’s held scoreless as the Bills constantly improving defense overwhelms the Raiders.
Predicted stat line: 16 rushes, 71 rush yards, 0 rush TD; 2 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (10.3 fantasy points)
Week 5: at Kansas City
Finally some top tier production that all the owners have been waiting for. The Chiefs fantasy-friendly defense gives up 5.6 YPC and two touchdowns despite still handily winning the game. Fantasy owners breathe a sigh of relief after watching their high round investment hit it big.
Predicted stat line: 18 rushes, 101 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 4 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (27.9 fantasy points)
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After the bye week, Jacobs and Raiders return to a nightmare against the Bucs. The league-leading rushing yard defense from 2019 results in Jacobs worst rushing total of the year. Gruden experiences traumatic flashbacks from his past as the Bucs run away with this one.
Predicted stat line: 11 rushes, 37 rush yards, 0 rush TD; 1 receptions, 5 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (4.7 fantasy points)
Week 8: at Cleveland Browns
The Raiders have alternated home and away games every week this year and combined with the shortened offseason and multitude of rookies, it has been hard to get their offense in sync. Things finally start to gel as they pick up a win against the Browns.
Predicted stat line: 19 rushes, 79 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 3 receptions, 26 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (18.0 fantasy points)
Week 9: at Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert has since taken over the starting duties for the Chargers, but the Raiders depleted secondary and mediocre pass rush isn’t enough to cause him much distress even as a rookie. As the Chargers secondary effectively shut down the Raiders’ wide receivers, they turn to Jacobs as one of their only answers.
Predicted stat line: 18 rushes, 92 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 1 receptions, 10 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (16.7 fantasy points)
Week 10: vs Denver Broncos
Jacobs receives his usual rushing touches but is held without a reception against the Broncos’ defense. Such has been the story for him, as he is reliant on heavy rushing volume while being restricted for receiving opportunities. Owners become frustrated with these kinds of outings, but much of the lack was due to schedule as much as his usage. His value dips just before his schedule lightens up tremendously for the end of the season, creating a perfect buying window for those looking to capitalize.
Predicted stat line: 17 rushes, 85 rush yards, 0 rush TD; 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (8.5 fantasy points)
Week 11: vs Kansas City Chiefs
Similar to his week 5 performance, Jacobs upper-end broken tackle rate comes into full display as he cuts through the Chiefs soft running defense. He receives his second highest touch total of the year and puts up nearly 22 points to show for up.
Predicted stat line: 22 rushes, 123 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 3 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (21.9 fantasy points)
Week 12: at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons return quite a few players in 2020 after an injury riddled 2019 season, namely stars Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. They were already top-10 against runners for fantasy purposes in 2019, so the added boost should only reinforce their weak spots. As such, Jacobs struggles in efficiency but finds the end zone.
Predicted stat line: 14 rushes, 69 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (14.1 fantasy points)
Week 13: at New York Jets
A win streak is upcoming for the Raiders due to both a lighter schedule and three out of the next four games being at home. This correlates directly to stronger workload and production stretch coming up for Jacobs.
Predicted stat line: 19 rushes, 80 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 1 reception, 3 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (14.8 fantasy points)
Week 14: vs Indianapolis Colts
Another great game for Jacobs comes at the expense of the Colts as he eclipses 100 rushing yards for the third time this season. His late season surge comes at the perfect time to catapult needy teams into the fantasy playoffs.
Predicted stat line: 24 rushes, 117 rush yards, 2 rush TD; 2 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (26.6 fantasy points)
Week 15: vs Los Angeles Chargers
A tough test comes up once again against division rival Chargers. Jacobs 100 total yards with no touchdowns comes as a slight disappointment considering what’s on the line for fantasy teams. A serviceable outing of 11.0 points is what he comes away with.
Predicted stat line: 19 rushes, 83 rush yards, 0 rush TD; 2 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (11.0 fantasy points)
Week 16: vs Miami Dolphins
Diving head first back into fantasy glory, the Raiders get a cake matchup against the Dolphins who have already been eliminated from playoff contention similar to the Raiders. Jacobs takes advantage to the tune of 21.5 fantasy points and likely helps seal the deal if he’s in your lineup come championship week.
Predicted stat line: 21 rushes, 108 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 3 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (21.5 fantasy points)
Week 17: at Denver Broncos
A meaningless matchup between two non-playoff teams leads to a very average outing for Jacobs’ final game.
Predicted stat line: 18 rushes, 76 rush yards, 0 rush TD; 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (9.5 fantasy points)
|Opponent||Rushes||Rushing Yards||Rushing TDs||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Receiving TDs||Fantasy Points|
Jacobs finishes the season with only 28 receptions, a fear that came to life as Richard and Bowden took the passing down work away from him. However, his 1,366 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns make him more useful in standard or half-PPR leagues than full points per receptions.
All in all, Jacobs’s second-year is very solid as a top-5 rushing total in the NFL. The full three-down role many hoped for him did not come to reality, and he seems destined for rushing greatness with lack of upside due to that fact. His career is starting to profile similarly to Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, so the great years will come on the back of high touchdown totals as long as the Raiders’ offense can get enough scoring opportunities.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.